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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
98
Predictions
283
Verified
99
Came true
62%
Complex
65%
Confident
42%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Dmitriy Potapenko

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent. A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
Cannot be verified September 2, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

As for the oil price, since there is no scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I think the price isn’t under much threat — it will be a bit nervous, but then it will settle down.
Completely came true September 2, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Completely came true September 2, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
Completely came true August 29, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
Completely came true August 29, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Nikolay Kozhanov

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel.
Did not come true August 28, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Kogan

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
Did not come true August 28, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Completely came true August 28, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Did not come true August 28, 2025
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Robert Kiyosaki

Why GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN will rise in price when TRUMP becomes President again... I predict gold will rise from $2,400 an ounce to $ 3,300: silver from $29.00 an ounce to $ 79.00: and Bitcoin from $67,400 per coin to $105,000 by August 2025.
Completely came true August 28, 2025
#Bitcoin #Economy #USA
en

Win/Win

Trump will not impose sanctions on Russia this Friday, as Ukraine has agreed to continue negotiations. (Previously, Vladimir Putin hinted that Ukraine was being dissuaded from talks). The State Department has since made new statements, saying the US is interested in a "lasting, durable peace" and continued negotiations. This means the demand for an unconditional ceasefire has been dropped. Official confirmations are expected soon.
Completely came true August 13, 2025
#Trump #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect a decrease to 18%. Answer to the question: "What do you expect from July 25th, what will the Central Bank do?" (with the key rate in Russia)
Completely came true July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
Did not come true July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
Did not come true July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
Completely came true June 30, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
Almost came true June 25, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
Completely came true June 6, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Kostin

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
Completely came true June 6, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Did not come true June 6, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Completely came true June 3, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Pavel Zavalny

I am just sure that we will see completely different prices — oil at $200, and gas at $4,000-5,000 per thousand cubic meters, and so on. The decisions being made are still leading to an escalation of the situation.
Did not come true June 1, 2025
#Economy #Gas #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Robert Kiyosaki

Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in US dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & Silver Gods money. Bitcoin people’s $. Take care.
Did not come true May 30, 2025
#USA #Economy #Bitcoin
en

Mikhail Fishman

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
Did not come true May 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

A key rate reduction, I think, is something we won’t see in the next six months. In response to the question: "Should I take out a loan now or wait for the key rate to drop?"
Completely came true May 15, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Did not come true May 12, 2025
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Did not come true April 30, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Did not come true April 29, 2025
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Completely came true April 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true March 30, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true March 21, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
Almost came true February 28, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Some gas is being pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system... Nothing prevents Russia from simply stopping it. I think that is what will happen.
Partially came true January 1, 2025
#Gas #Ukraine #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year. About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Almost came true December 31, 2024
#Russia #Belarus #Germany #Poland #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

The rate will now be raised to at least 25%, maybe even 30%, and Nabiullina will have to increase it. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
Almost came true December 18, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en