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I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
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Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
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Gasoline prices will continue to rise. In 2023, there was a 7.5% increase, and the previous year it was over 11%. I think this year we’ll be nearing a 15% increase, considering the rise in excise taxes on petroleum products and higher taxes overall. In Russia in 2025.
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There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
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The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
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We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
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And by the way, regarding the increase in the retirement age. Many laugh and think, no, that can’t happen. No, my friends, there will be an increase in the retirement age. I am deeply convinced that around the end of 2025 to 2026, the ruling oligarchs will come out and tell us...
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I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
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There will be no 100 rubles to the dollar in Russia in a year. The exchange rate will be much worse.
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97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
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I think it will be 14 rubles per yuan in the fall.
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I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
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Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
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