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Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
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I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
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The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
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I think it will be 14 rubles per yuan in the fall.
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We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
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I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
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97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
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Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
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