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Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
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We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
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I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
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97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
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The Central Bank will not change the rate today.
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The Central Bank will raise the rate. But not today, in my opinion.
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Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
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We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
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There will be significantly less oil on the market, and its price will be much higher. Moreover, it will exceed the projected astronomical price of $300–400. Compare this with the dynamics of gas prices.
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In 2009, during the purely economic crisis, the unemployment rate peaked at 9.5%. Now it is at 5%. Will it reach that level again? Most likely, yes. Most likely, yes.
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Due to the closure of enterprises and the cessation of cooperation with international companies, there will be millions of new unemployed. In Russia.
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But in any case, I don't think the Central Bank will let it go beyond 85-90 rubles. The exchange rate of the dollar in rubles in 2023.
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They will trade and sell for 60 and for 30... everyone who buys. Russia will still sell oil, despite the price cap that has been introduced.
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Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
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Already now, at the beginning of the year, oil is below $50. And it is unlikely to become more expensive.
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September, October, November... Most likely, they will keep it in the range of 93-97. The exchange rate of the dollar in Russia.
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I believe that the euro will trade in February in the range of 72-75 rubles, closer to its lower boundary.
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Since we saw at the end of last year that the U.S. economy did not fall into crisis, while the Russian economy slightly slowed down in its adaptive and positive trends, the ruble has depreciated a bit against the dollar and is now, at the end of January, around 67-68 rubles. As I do not see any prerequisites for significant changes in either the Russian economy or the U.S. in February, it seems that this is the rate to expect in the coming month. Of course, fluctuations around this figure are possible, and they will be significant, as there is some uncertainty in the external economic situation. But the most important thing is that the Central Bank of Russia is not intervening in the exchange rate formation mechanism and is not smoothing out excessively sharp peaks in fluctuations. As a result, the ruble will fluctuate around the 67-68 rubles per dollar mark, with noticeable variations of about one ruble in either direction. But on average, this is the rate we can expect throughout February.
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Thus, they will try to bring it to an average of 71-74... but physically, the rate of 67-69 is the maximum they can achieve by December... this is assuming they don't 'fool around like complete idiots.' About the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar.
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Forecast: 50 basis points. This refers to the expectation that on February 9, 2018, the Central Bank of Russia will lower the key interest rate by 50 basis points.
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