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The new US sanctions are likely to remain in effect slightly beyond the end of January. US sanctions against Russia introduced these days.
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I think that by the end of 2024, the number of billionaires in Russia will grow again—that’s my prediction.
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Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
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For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
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The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
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Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
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Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
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I think they will simply ask one of the bankers to sell, and the exchange rate will stabilize and go down. I don’t think it will stay at this 114 level just yet—it’s too early for that. I believe they’ll bring it down to around 107-105 and keep it there for some time. Rubles per dollar.
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I think by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, it will be somewhere around 105-110. The dollar will be 105-110 rubles.
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The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
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As people's purchasing power declines, we will soon see a drop in housing prices.
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Nord Stream 2, we've already covered this topic... in the next year or two, in its current form, it will not be launched.
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The rate will now be raised to at least 25%, maybe even 30%, and Nabiullina will have to increase it. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
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The rate is likely to be increased. The key interest rate in Russia in December 2024.
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Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
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I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
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The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
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I think it will be 14 rubles per yuan in the fall.
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Yes, the dollar will keep rising, and it will cross 100 soon. In response to: "So, the dollar at 100 this year?" (100 rubles to the dollar).
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We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
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This year, I don't think the dollar exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Words of politicians and officials

As for the exchange rate, I would say we will confidently break through 100 this year, likely around November. By the end of 2024, the exchange rate will be above 100 rubles per dollar.
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Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
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We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
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I am sure that it is not the limit; I think it will be 20. Response to the remark: 'The Central Bank raised the rate to 19%, and Nabiullina said that this is not the limit'
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I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
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97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
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The Central Bank will not change the rate today.
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The Central Bank will raise the rate. But not today, in my opinion.
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Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
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We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
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There will be significantly less oil on the market, and its price will be much higher. Moreover, it will exceed the projected astronomical price of $300–400. Compare this with the dynamics of gas prices.
#Oil #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia #Words of politicians and officials

And we will definitely see 200 rubles per dollar, 300 rubles per dollar... even in the legal market.
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In 2009, during the purely economic crisis, the unemployment rate peaked at 9.5%. Now it is at 5%. Will it reach that level again? Most likely, yes. Most likely, yes.
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Due to the closure of enterprises and the cessation of cooperation with international companies, there will be millions of new unemployed. In Russia.
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But in any case, I don't think the Central Bank will let it go beyond 85-90 rubles. The exchange rate of the dollar in rubles in 2023.
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They will trade and sell for 60 and for 30... everyone who buys. Russia will still sell oil, despite the price cap that has been introduced.
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Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
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Already now, at the beginning of the year, oil is below $50. And it is unlikely to become more expensive.
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September, October, November... Most likely, they will keep it in the range of 93-97. The exchange rate of the dollar in Russia.
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I believe that the euro will trade in February in the range of 72-75 rubles, closer to its lower boundary.
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Since we saw at the end of last year that the U.S. economy did not fall into crisis, while the Russian economy slightly slowed down in its adaptive and positive trends, the ruble has depreciated a bit against the dollar and is now, at the end of January, around 67-68 rubles. As I do not see any prerequisites for significant changes in either the Russian economy or the U.S. in February, it seems that this is the rate to expect in the coming month. Of course, fluctuations around this figure are possible, and they will be significant, as there is some uncertainty in the external economic situation. But the most important thing is that the Central Bank of Russia is not intervening in the exchange rate formation mechanism and is not smoothing out excessively sharp peaks in fluctuations. As a result, the ruble will fluctuate around the 67-68 rubles per dollar mark, with noticeable variations of about one ruble in either direction. But on average, this is the rate we can expect throughout February.
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Thus, they will try to bring it to an average of 71-74... but physically, the rate of 67-69 is the maximum they can achieve by December... this is assuming they don't 'fool around like complete idiots.' About the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar.
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Forecast: 50 basis points. This refers to the expectation that on February 9, 2018, the Central Bank of Russia will lower the key interest rate by 50 basis points.
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