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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy of Russia

Authors
49
Predictions
164
Verified
71
Came true
58%
Complex
65%
Confident
32%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Nikolai Korzhenevskiy

Returning to the Bank of Russia, it will want to see how this will affect inflationary expectations, so definitely until January 1st, no one will be lowering the key rate quickly. Referring to the key rate.
Expected January 1, 2026
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Is there a chance for 14%? In my opinion, there's no chance of that. There is a chance for 16% by the end of the year, but... Referring to the key rate in Russia, stating that it won't be 14% by the end of 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Gasoline prices will continue to rise. In 2023, there was a 7.5% increase, and the previous year it was over 11%. I think this year we’ll be nearing a 15% increase, considering the rise in excise taxes on petroleum products and higher taxes overall. In Russia in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Gasoline #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Komolov

I doubt it. In response to the question: "The Central Bank didn’t raise the rate in December. Does this mean it will start to decline in 2025?" (In Russia).
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

People’s bank deposits will simply be seized. They’ll be frozen or converted into bonds. They’ll call it a patriotic war loan for 20 years. In Russia in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

There’s firm confidence that it will be raised. Maybe not right now, but in a year, it’ll likely go up to around 24%, so to speak. Inflation is rising. The key interest rate in Russia will be raised again.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

It’s not about Ukraine, the DPR and LPR, or Crimea; it’s about lifting sanctions. Otherwise, the Russian economy will collapse—I emphasize, it will collapse, contrary to what many experts claim. And the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that it will collapse next year. Therefore, they must ensure that sanctions are lifted or eased. To achieve this, they need a peace agreement or a truce with Ukraine that both the West and Ukraine would find acceptable enough to lift sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Russian economy will collapse in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Natalia Zubarevich

In 2025, the interest rate will most likely be reduced. As for how, by how much, and at what pace—excuse me, I’m not prepared to comment on that. The key interest rate in Russia is expected to decrease in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
Expected December 16, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected November 15, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn. In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn.
Expected November 1, 2025
#Gasoline #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged). Key rate
Expected October 24, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

It's safe to say that there will definitely be some kind of tax increase. It will be announced, it's a matter of the next few days. In Russia.
Expected October 21, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
Expected September 23, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
Expected July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected July 15, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Expected June 30, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en