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Predictions and promises monitor

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Andrey Piontkovsky

Political expert, mathematician (Russia)

Predictions
51
Verified
34
Came true
50%
Complex
74%
Confident
74%
5.01

Andrey Piontkovsky

These stupid restrictions... so that they don't strike Russian territory with their long-range missiles... I am sure that all restrictions will be lifted. Restrictions for Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We will see him... Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma... and But will follow the same path. Viktor Bout will become a member of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Both Skabeeva and Simonyansha will definitely be sent, if not to The Hague, then to Mariupol. Russian TV hosts Olga Skabeeva and Margarita Simonyan will be tried.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Ukraine will never agree to this. To capitulation due to pressure from partners over the threat of the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
Expected May 9, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en