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A meeting between Trump and Putin in Beijing is, in my opinion, impossible; there's no substance to it. In my view, it won't happen. Answer to the question: "Is a meeting between Trump and Putin possible?"
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #China

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world.
#Trump #Xi Jinping #Putin #USA #China #Russia

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And Trump also says: "We will discuss how to first and foremost cease fire". My prediction is that Putin will not agree to a truce. During the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska.
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #USA

On Friday, there will be negotiations... The next round of negotiations will fail on its own. This is a surefire prediction. Trump and Putin negotiations.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine

As of now, the way we see it, we won’t even reach a hundred by mid-summer. The ruble-to-dollar rate won’t reach 100 rubles per dollar by mid-summer.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

By August, 112-117. The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia by August 2025.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

This war will last with phases of fading... for up to three years, unfortunately. A year is certain.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don't think it will happen this week. In response to the question: "Will the meeting between Putin and Zelensky eventually take place?"
#Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #War in Ukraine

Yes, I think the meeting will take place. There have already been too many confirmations, including official ones. In response to the question: "A meeting between Putin and Trump is expected. Do you think the meeting will happen?"
#Putin #Trump #USA #Russia

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

Yes, I believe so. I'm sure a meeting between Putin and Trump will happen soon.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

Trump will not impose sanctions on Russia this Friday, as Ukraine has agreed to continue negotiations. (Previously, Vladimir Putin hinted that Ukraine was being dissuaded from talks). The State Department has since made new statements, saying the US is interested in a "lasting, durable peace" and continued negotiations. This means the demand for an unconditional ceasefire has been dropped. Official confirmations are expected soon.
#Trump #Russia #Economy

What else can he do to stop the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine? I'm afraid he doesn't have any special ideas about that. I think that after the ultimatum expires, we'll find out that the "red line" has moved somewhere further away again. That's my prediction. Maybe I'm wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Russia #Ukraine

I think the situation will unfold as follows. Today, I expect that even though the deadline has passed, Trump will most likely say something like, "Well, we did agree with the Russian side to arrange a meeting, and in doing so, we're signaling the end of the war, so why impose sanctions now?" That is what I expect will most likely happen.
#Trump #Russia #War in Ukraine

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
#Russia #USA

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no "temporary truce" for 30 days, of course. Between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I expect a decrease to 18%. Answer to the question: "What do you expect from July 25th, what will the Central Bank do?" (with the key rate in Russia)
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

It seems that within the coming months, a rotten compromise will be reached, which will please neither side... but it is far better than senseless and merciless bloodshed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The market reaction is one thing. The European ultimatum, which Peskov commented on regarding the ceasefire, is another. And the meeting in Istanbul is a third. As for the fundamental and main question — will there be peace? In my opinion, no. Because the positions of the two sides differ drastically.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin

There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Saudi Arabia

I am sure that it will. In response to the question: "Will the war stop, as some say, by the middle of this year or not?" (The war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, we are not that close to negotiations. Between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

All unpopular decisions, including lowering the conscription age, will be pinned on him, and that's it. Then they will change him. I think this will happen in the first half of next year. Response to the remark: "You have repeatedly said that Zelensky is illegitimate..."
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Words of politicians and officials

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think this war will definitely continue into next year. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I find it hard to imagine a breakthrough to the right bank of the Oskil River with the establishment of a bridgehead. Referring to Russian troops and the Oskil River in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin urgently needs to end this war. I think he needs to wait a few months. And we will see how gradually he will start to roll back... Apparently, he will manage to retain at least Donbas for some time, and the question of Crimea will likely be postponed. But Putin will begin to roll back
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

They won’t reverse course, because everything is happening too quickly, and by now it would openly look like an admission that they’ve lost politically. Withdraw Medinsky? Under what pretext? It’s too late for that. More likely, I think, they’ll actually toughen their demands. They’ll now tighten their demands even more — paradoxically, not ease them, but specifically toughen them. That’s most likely what will happen. Some things will sound more blunt, more brazen, more cynical. And going forward, one can assume that the negotiations will end in nothing. Russia will toughen its demands on Ukraine at the negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Negotiations are impossible. We can forget about negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be some format. Primarily with the mediation of Turkey. The format of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin