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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
301
Predictions
1588
Verified
611
Came true
63%
Complex
57%
Confident
49%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Oleksandr Kharebin‬

As of today, and for the next few weeks or months, I don’t see any possibility of North Korean soldiers being present in Ukraine... Any clash between the Ukrainian army and North Koreans will take place on Russian territory, not on Ukrainian territory. This is an important point, and I want to emphasize it.
Completely came true April 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #North Korea #Russia
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

We just made a bet with the cameraman before the broadcast on whether the conflict would be frozen by April 1st or not. The cameraman is betting it will. I don't believe in such a scenario. Talking about the war in Ukraine.
Completely came true April 1, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

If negotiations do not begin and no ceasefire is reached, another so-called partial mobilization—completely free of charge—will be announced in Russia in March.
Cannot be verified March 31, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

By March 2025, the war in Ukraine will end, I think. I’m ready to be wrong, but I’d say there’s a 70% chance of it happening.
Did not come true March 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true March 30, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true March 21, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Chichvarkin

I think it will end with an agreement to have another conversation. I don't expect any major turning points. In response to the question: "Peskov stated that Putin does not intend to make any official statements after the conversation. We’ll be waiting for information from Trump... What do you think will be the outcome of today’s conversation?"
Completely came true March 19, 2025
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
Did not come true February 28, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

In 2025, the war will continue—that’s certain and clear. But I still hope that 2025 will be the final year of the war. It won’t happen in January or February, but such a possibility is entirely realistic. The war in Ukraine.
Completely came true February 28, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The Russian army’s offensive will certainly slow down, simply due to climatic and seasonal factors. From this perspective, I don’t think they intend to take Pavlograd—that’s impossible—or reach the borders of the Dnipro region, let alone cross them. Such an opportunity does not exist at the moment.
Completely came true February 28, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong. Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Completely came true February 28, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
Almost came true February 28, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline
ru → en

Nikolai Petrov

While the draft is ongoing, there’s no point and no way to bring in additional people. Then winter comes. So, unless there are some drastic changes on the front, there won’t be any serious chances for large-scale mobilization until spring. In Russia
Completely came true February 28, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The middle class won’t go to war en masse, even for money… They’ll have to draft people by force. That’s why I think by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, at least half a million Russian men will be conscripted into the army. They'll try to draft them, though some will flee and some will hide, but overall, I think they’ll get the job done. Russia has set up a special electronic system and border control system; they’ve prepared thoroughly for a new wave of mobilization.
Did not come true February 28, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Kolezev

I don't see any grounds for it to begin in the near future. It seems to me that the Russian army is managing reasonably well with the forces it currently has. Answer to the question: 'Will there be a new wave of mobilization, or should we not expect it in the near future?' (In Russia).
Completely came true February 28, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

In early February, Trump will be forced to acknowledge that he does not, and cannot, have a peace plan for a freeze supported by both Ukraine and Russia. This is already evident.
Partially came true February 25, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Alfred Koch

So, in the next couple of months, we will see some very important events on the front. Significant events that could impact the course of the war in Ukraine and potentially lead to the lifting of martial law.
Did not come true February 13, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Negotiations will undoubtedly take place; this seems obvious to me. I think we should expect them within days, any day now. I believe there will be a phone conversation. It will be interesting to observe how it is arranged. Most likely, it will be organized in such a way that Trump will call Putin.
Completely came true February 12, 2025
#Russia #USA #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

We will witness a grand scenario of "Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0" will unfold. The world on the brink of nuclear war, but at the last moment, Trump, not yet elected president, calls Putin, and together they save the world from catastrophe. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief.
Did not come true February 12, 2025
#Nuclear weapons #Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Yes, I agree with you. In response to: "Military actions will not stop within three months... a freeze (in the war in Ukraine) is not in store for us in the next three months."
Completely came true February 12, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Completely came true February 12, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

German Klimenko

I would suggest that, judging by the current reaction, YouTube will remain like this for 3-5 months, and then it will be blocked. In Russia.
Almost came true February 1, 2025
#Russia #Internet #Censorship
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

I’ll allow myself to cautiously suggest that Ukrainian forces will likely remain in the territory of Kursk Oblast for at least the entire month of January.
Completely came true January 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Denis Leven

The likelihood of negotiations right now honestly seems rather low, because, for example, it doesn’t appear particularly advantageous for Russia to even sit down for talks at the moment, as what is currently happening in Donbas can be characterized as a success for the Russian army.
Completely came true January 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The ruling party in Georgia is "Georgian Dream," a puppet pro-Moscow party... My prediction is that Moscow is certainly involved and is participating in the election process in Georgia, which will take place on the 26th. They will rig the elections, that’s for sure. And most likely, Moscow will also take part in forcefully defending the rigged election results, ensuring that Georgian Dream remains in power.
Completely came true January 31, 2025
#Georgia #Elections #Russia
ru → en

Evgeny Chichvarkin

Probably, this operation will be completed soon, in my opinion. The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia.
Did not come true January 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Anatoly Wasserman

Judging by the forces allocated for this raid and the rate at which they’re being wiped out, these forces will run out in about a month or two. Another matter is whether they’ll throw more cannon fodder into the fire, or perhaps pull back those who haven’t been wiped out yet to another direction. Refers to Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region.
Did not come true January 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Judging by how things are going, a ceasefire will likely happen on January 25 or around that date... And if no extraordinary factors intervene, it’s highly probable that we’ll see a ceasefire in spring. In response to: "Alexey, what do you think, is a ceasefire possible before May 1?" (between Russia and Ukraine).
Did not come true January 25, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

January 2025 is the earliest possible date for the war to stop. I want to emphasize again that this is just the earliest date.
Completely came true January 21, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Will Sudzha hold out? Naturally, some part of the Ukrainian bridgehead might shrink, but I think they’ve set a goal to hold on right up until Trump, until January 20, and part of the bridgehead will definitely hold.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

Until January 20, I can predict that Pokrovsk will not be captured. Although this will be a significant problem for Putin.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think there will most likely be a call or some kind of conversation, or perhaps even a meeting... between Trump and Putin before the inauguration.
Did not come true January 20, 2025
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that at least until the inauguration, nothing will happen. Everything will continue as it is. There will be no ceasefire in the war in Ukraine until Trump’s inauguration.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

After being elected, it's not customary for American presidents to take any significant actions that lead to specific consequences. So, the likelihood of any serious moves from Biden was already low, and now it’s almost approaching zero.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#Biden #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't think that not only until November 5th (the day of the elections), but even until January 20th... I don't think that any serious negotiations can take place during this period.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I think they will simply ask one of the bankers to sell, and the exchange rate will stabilize and go down. I don’t think it will stay at this 114 level just yet—it’s too early for that. I believe they’ll bring it down to around 107-105 and keep it there for some time. Rubles per dollar.
Completely came true January 15, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Maxim Katz

I think so, that's it. I don't believe he will be able to do anything in the Anti-Corruption Foundation. About Leonid Volkov
Did not come true January 15, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that such a decision will be made in the near future. Only if the practice of Russian drones or missile incursions becomes more frequent, and random civilians are killed on European territory. The answer to the question: "Will the countries bordering Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles?"
Completely came true January 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think that most likely, the fighting will pause in December, and its intensity will decrease significantly. The Russian army’s offensive will certainly slow down, simply due to climatic and seasonal factors.
Partially came true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think if it happens, it will be next year. They haven’t reached Pokrovsk yet. In response to the question: "When do you think the assault on Pokrovsk will take place?"
Completely came true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Yevgeny Popov

I think that even before January, Trump will offer Russia an obviously unfavorable deal regarding Ukraine, which we will, of course, reject. Donald will shrug and, in his usual manner, announce an unprecedented aid package for the Zelensky regime and the lifting of all restrictions on missiles.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vadim Radionov

I don’t share the optimistic predictions that the war will end this year. It seems to me that this process, this momentum that has been set in motion, will last a long time. But maybe a black swan will spread its wings, and it will all end quickly. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Completely came true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I don’t think we will go through with it; I’m a skeptic in this regard. We will continue to escalate and provoke. Since the talks in "Great Yalta" are about reconciliation by the New Year and a ceasefire, I expect some major provocation from our side soon—something intended to disrupt these efforts. He implies that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are being prepared for before the New Year, and that Ukraine will derail them with a provocation.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any sign that the front will collapse. I see no grounds to think a cascading collapse of the front will happen. Nothing currently indicates that outcome. They simply don’t have the forces to make it happen… I believe we’ll continue to see this slow movement with some acceleration. In response to the question: “How do you think events will unfold on the Russia-Ukraine front over the next couple of months?”
Completely came true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en