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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
344
Predictions
2067
Verified
830
Came true
64%
Complex
60%
Confident
49%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected December 26, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Maxim Katz

In the foreseeable future, it will not happen, from my point of view. I don't know, I could be wrong. In response to the question: "Maxim, when will the meeting between Putin and Zelensky take place, if it happens?"
Expected December 24, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Zelensky #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join.
Expected December 20, 2025
#USA #Russia #European Union #Oil
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
Expected December 16, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It was quite obvious that Kamyshevakha would fall in the near future... Sooner or later, it will definitely end up in the Russian rear. That's pretty obvious.
Expected December 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

I am more than certain, and I am ready to compare the results later, that by the end of 2025, no matter what anyone writes or spreads, the war will not end. The war in Ukraine.
Expected December 13, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

Another round of sanctions is being discussed... The 19th sanctions package concerns a serious restriction on the issuance of tourist visas to Russians... I am absolutely convinced that such a measure won't be adopted.
Expected December 11, 2025
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army. Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”
Expected December 11, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

There’s a very unpleasant detail — depending on the type of penal colony, the days spent under house arrest don’t count toward the future sentence if it turns out to be a real prison term. And I believe Shlosberg will get a real sentence. Simply because it’s Pskov — people there are fed up with him. We can see how biased the attitude toward him is, specifically in Pskov.
Expected December 11, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Irma Zauber

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says. The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed.
Expected December 10, 2025
#USA #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
Expected December 8, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
Expected December 8, 2025
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

Yes, exactly. That's why I'm saying this law won't be passed. Responding to the comment: "The first thought that comes to mind when you start thinking about Lindsey Graham's project is, what about China, what about India?"
Expected December 6, 2025
#USA #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

And regarding the fact that many of the Z-supporters have started to rejoice "Finally, we're hitting the bridges, now we need to hit the bridges over the Dnieper River, for example, near the city of Zaporizhzhia". I believe this won't happen because there's very little point to it.
Expected December 4, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Plyushchev

Given the traditions of how the Putin state operates, most likely no one will be replaced, and even all the top officials will remain in their positions. In response to the remark: "Who is to blame for the success of Operation 'Web' by Ukraine? Who is to blame on the Russian side?"
Expected December 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

By the way, such intense purges will start this summer and fall within Putin’s ranks; the heads of propagandists will roll en masse, like mushrooms sprouting.
Expected November 30, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Kirill Sazonov

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
Expected November 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
Expected November 26, 2025
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don't think what's happening in Istanbul can be considered a step towards peace in any way. As for a high-level meeting, it won't happen in the format proposed by Ukraine. Russia won't agree to Ukraine's proposal for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Expected November 24, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
Expected November 24, 2025
#USA #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Eidman

There will be some token actions as part of the continuation of this negotiation process. These actions will take place. It’s purely a cover for Putin’s escalation of the war. Again, it’s meant to convince the Americans not to impose sanctions against them... And, unfortunately, yes — the war will go on. Within the current negotiation process, the war in Ukraine will not come to an end.
Expected November 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think one could choose the option "will give in the coming days". Will Trump give Tomahawks to Ukraine? The four options are: 1) Yes, will give in the coming days 2) Yes, but in months, or even years 3) Will promise, but won't give 4) Won't give and will stop promising. Which option would you choose, Yury Evgenyevich?
Expected November 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #USA #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected November 15, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
Expected November 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected November 8, 2025
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months. In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?)
Expected November 4, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now. In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?"
Expected November 2, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn. In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn.
Expected November 1, 2025
#Gasoline #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #India #China #Trump #Economy #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
Expected October 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected October 31, 2025
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged). Key rate
Expected October 24, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

It's safe to say that there will definitely be some kind of tax increase. It will be announced, it's a matter of the next few days. In Russia.
Expected October 21, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Right now, there is a vote underway for which object will appear on the new 500-ruble Russian banknote. And Mount Elbrus is competing with Grozny-City. I think Grozny-City will win the vote.
Expected October 16, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise. Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin.
Expected October 5, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
Expected September 23, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected August 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected August 17, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I really think Whitkoff's visit will be pointless and accomplish nothing; they won't agree on anything. Steve Whitkoff's visit to Russia in early August.
Expected August 15, 2025
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergei Markov

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
Expected August 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Ian Matveev

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free.
Expected August 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Natalia Evdokimova

I think they’ll agree that they will jointly develop the areas near or around the Arctic Ocean. That’s most likely how it will end — with a mutually beneficial deal. Regarding the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en