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Ruslan Leviev

Founder of Conflict Intelligence Team (Russia)

Predictions
97
Verified
50
Came true
92%
Complex
58%
Confident
38%
Rating
7.75
All Expected Expected soon New results

Ruslan Leviev

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast.
Completely came true September 17, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Completely came true September 17, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I think the situation will unfold as follows. Today, I expect that even though the deadline has passed, Trump will most likely say something like, "Well, we did agree with the Russian side to arrange a meeting, and in doing so, we're signaling the end of the war, so why impose sanctions now?" That is what I expect will most likely happen.
Completely came true August 9, 2025
#Trump #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
Completely came true May 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that such a decision will be made in the near future. Only if the practice of Russian drones or missile incursions becomes more frequent, and random civilians are killed on European territory. The answer to the question: "Will the countries bordering Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles?"
Completely came true January 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025?... To Sloviansk, I am sure, it definitely will not reach... I am making such cautious subjective predictions.
Completely came true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Attacks on Lgov, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant... on Kurchatov... in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Clearly, this will not happen. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not go to Lgov, Kurchatov, and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
Completely came true December 19, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, I assume that today, tomorrow, or the day after—in the next 3-4-5 days—there will be more strikes with ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP on some targets within Russian territory.
Completely came true December 5, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia can bomb all the way to Lviv, which it periodically does. However, Ukraine is restricted, as if to say, "You can't go there." I believe we should come to a situation, and I think we will eventually, when this restriction will be lifted. Restriction on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory using foreign weapons.
Completely came true November 21, 2024
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, the Taurus missiles that can fly 500 km, if we see them at all, will not be anytime soon. These missiles are unlikely to be delivered to Ukraine anytime soon, if they are delivered at all.
Completely came true November 15, 2024
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that they will be able to capture Pokrovsk by November. That would be too optimistic for the Russian army.
Completely came true November 1, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025? Uglidar will clearly not be held... I am making such cautious subjective predictions. Ukraine will not be able to retain Uglidar.
Completely came true October 2, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I find this absolutely impossible... What would be the point of entering the Kursk and Belgorod regions to occupy something there? If a mechanized offensive were to begin on Russian territory, the question of further support from Europe arises... Europe and America do not want to see ground combat on Russian territory. Response to the remark: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive may include entering the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions"
Did not come true August 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Of course. Undoubtedly. I am sure that such attacks will happen again. They may use different types of drones or missiles... In this regard, Russia is vulnerable, and it is possible to strike military facilities. Answer to the question: 'Can we expect to see such attacks in the near future?' (Drone attacks on military facilities in Russia, similar to the attack on the Engels airfield)
Completely came true August 18, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that nothing will come of it. Commenting on the proposal by the Estonian Foreign Minister to ban the issuance of Schengen visas to Russians at the EU level
Completely came true July 27, 2024
#European Union #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

And most likely, the shelling of Kharkiv will certainly not stop. About the shelling from Russia after the liberation of the main part of Kharkiv Oblast by Ukrainian forces
Completely came true May 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I do not expect that in the next month and a half, suddenly, the Russian side will stop the attacks due to the fact that the losses are too high. Attacks on Avdiivka.
Completely came true March 1, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Considering all these remarks, I do not expect any other large-scale deliveries this year... the task of reaching Melitopol this year is unachievable, given all the difficulties. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Probably, in April-May, I would expect less from the Ukrainian side regarding any large-scale counteroffensive.
Completely came true June 10, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Bakhmut itself is a large area. It won't be easy to capture it quickly. Therefore, I think we will be talking about Bakhmut for a long time, likely in the coming weeks
Completely came true May 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is unlikely that it will be possible to cut off electricity entirely in Ukraine, that is, to arrange a blackout.
Completely came true April 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am absolutely sure that there will definitely be a second wave, maybe not in January, maybe later. The second wave of mobilization in Russia.
Did not come true April 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I also don't think that Shoigu will be punished in any way for the failure with the Crimean Bridge
Completely came true February 8, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I don't think that if the Kherson region is liberated, they will immediately go for Crimea. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true February 1, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I haven't seen any objective factors supporting this version... it sounds quite doubtful. That Russia will leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the near future.
Completely came true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I think... they will clearly provide new air defense systems... but this will not allow for 100% coverage of the sky. Allies will provide air defense to Ukraine after the massive shelling of Ukraine on October 10.
Completely came true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It can be assumed that if the Antonivskyi Bridge is blown up and a threat is created to Nova Kakhovka, then perhaps the Russian forces will decide to withdraw from Kherson. But so far, we do not see any prerequisites for this. They will try to hold their position in Kherson.
Completely came true November 11, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, they will end up not completing anything and will have to use some kind of ferry crossing. About the restoration of the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro by the Russian occupation forces.
Completely came true November 10, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

One should not expect that Kherson will be liberated within a week or two or three. Most likely, it will be a lengthy process
Completely came true November 10, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that at this point, Ukrainian forces will not advance further; they will not move into the Luhansk region. Further than the Oskol River.
Completely came true October 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is likely that martial law will be introduced because of this... it can be declared in certain regions.
Completely came true October 19, 2022
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia will be able to fight for a month and a half to two months; it will not withstand heavy fighting for longer... then partial mobilization will be required.
Completely came true September 21, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

If those HIMARS that were promised actually start to be provided, then I think that in a month we will see a serious change in the situation.
Completely came true September 15, 2022
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I don't think they will now force the Dnieper to the left bank. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true May 31, 2022
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

But for now, there is no such danger. We do not see signs that mobilization is being prepared. Within a month. In Russia.
Completely came true May 25, 2022
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Today, Putin announced that we are canceling the assault on Azovstal. But naturally, the gunfire will not stop in any way. We are absolutely certain of this... bombs will continue to be dropped on Azovstal... there will be shelling from a distance.
Completely came true May 20, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is clear that nothing like that will happen. Talking about the Easter truce.
Completely came true April 25, 2022
#War in Ukraine
ru → en