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I believe it is zero. I don't see any such chances for a freeze in the war. There are two and a half months left until the New Year. No, I consider it impossible. Answer to the question: "What do you think is the chance of the war ending before the New Year?"
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It’s very important not to repeat Putin’s mistake. Apparently, Putin believes he is winning and that a moment may come when the Ukrainian army is completely exhausted, the front collapses, the army retreats, and nothing is left of it. He believes he can seize that moment to capture significantly more territory and win the war. He’s waiting for that — he believes such a moment will come. We are confident that such a moment will not come. The current supply of ammunition and equipment is, more or less, sufficient for Ukraine to sustain the war at its present pace.
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If they suddenly decide to launch a second wave of mobilization, I believe it won't happen. In Russia.
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If Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, key logistical hubs, are captured, it would pave the way toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two major urban agglomerations in the Donetsk region. However, I doubt that the Russian army has any realistic chance of achieving this large-scale plan by the end of this year. These urban agglomerations cover a vast area, and fighting for them would take a long time.
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In the near future, Pavlohrad is not under threat of attacks, and neither is Dnipro. It’s very, very far away. Shahed strikes—yes, and missile strikes—yes as well, but as for ground attacks, we can speculate and discuss them in the context of 2026 or 2027, if the war is not frozen. For the next many months, a year, or probably even longer, it’s obvious—no, Pavlohrad is still far out of reach. Ground attacks by Russia on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad are unlikely to occur before 2026.
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If the war is not stopped next year, it’s clear that next year, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are likely to be captured.
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I don’t think Ukraine really needs such systems right now, because it’s fairly obvious to me that we’re unlikely to see a second use of such missiles. Their military value is absolutely zero. Speaking about missiles from Russia’s "Oreshnik" system.
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So, I do not expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive next year.
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I wouldn't expect that. Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025'

I believe that the likelihood of the war being in some sense frozen, not finished but rather frozen, in 2025 is quite high.
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It was quite obvious that Kamyshevakha would fall in the near future... Sooner or later, it will definitely end up in the Russian rear. That's pretty obvious.
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Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army. Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”
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And regarding the fact that many of the Z-supporters have started to rejoice "Finally, we're hitting the bridges, now we need to hit the bridges over the Dnieper River, for example, near the city of Zaporizhzhia". I believe this won't happen because there's very little point to it.
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It's obvious there will definitely be a battle for Pokrovsk this fall.
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It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
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Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself.
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Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
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We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
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I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities.
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I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
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