Predictions and promises monitor

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Igor Yakovenko

Journalist, public figure (Russia)

Predictions
83
Verified
29
Came true
62%
Complex
34%
Confident
34%
5.46

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that in this case, wishful thinking is being mistaken for reality. The war will not end in 2025, even if something unlikely happens and all the points of the victory plan are fulfilled. Referring to the victory plan that Zelensky presented on October 16, 2024.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine. If he becomes president.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Putin will fly the long, roundabout way, through the Black Sea, through the Mediterranean Sea, through friendly countries... I think he will fly. European politicians have no chance of somehow forcing Trump to back out, and no chance of forcing Orbán to arrest Putin.
Expected November 5, 2025
#Putin #Hungary
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en