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Predictions and promises monitor

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Igor Yakovenko

Journalist, public figure (Russia)

Predictions
75
Verified
27
Came true
67%
Complex
33%
Confident
33%
Rating
5.7
All Expected Expected soon New results

Igor Yakovenko

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The Baltic states are undoubtedly a risk zone, but direct aggression will most likely occur only after one version or another of the war against Ukraine has played out. Whether Putin will be in a position to attack anyone after this war — or whether he’ll even still be around — is a rhetorical question, because I don’t have an answer to it. If Putin does attack the Baltic states, it will be after the war against Ukraine is over.
Expected
#Putin #Russia #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #UN
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that the social credit systems being implemented in China—I am firmly convinced that they won’t take root here. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Lukashenko, a man who has been in power for 30 years... I am firmly convinced that he will outlast Putin. Because, in terms of maneuvering skills—being practically in Putin’s back pocket, 1000 percent dependent on him—he still manages to create room to maneuver for himself.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I believe that, given Putin currently has four sources for replenishing cannon fodder, there’s no need for mobilization. I think it’s unlikely to happen. Never say never—of course, it could occur—but I don’t see it happening at the moment. For Putin, mobilization is a negative move; it creates tension.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

It’s fairly obvious that, like Putin, Lukashenko will only leave his throne upon physical death. For both Putin and Lukashenko, losing power is essentially equivalent to physical death or a long prison sentence.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I have never seen Yulia Navalnaya as a politician, and I don't think she has any chance of becoming one.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

All these dreams and fantasies about turning BRICS into a military-political alliance... I can try to be absolutely categorical. I believe this idea will never materialize. I just can't imagine a military-political alliance between, say, India and China; the contradictions between them are simply too strong.
Expected
#BRICS #India #China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Well, it’s definitely moving in that direction. China is undoubtedly trying to do it. But in the end, it won't succeed. In response to the question: "China wants to build a new bipolar world. Will the Chinese leader be able to achieve this?"
Expected
#China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Most likely, this conflict will gradually subside... I think this situation will slowly die down. Referring to the recent situation where Kadyrov declared blood vengeance.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that she will receive it is extremely low. I think that Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons either, although it could create them itself. Poland and Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Ukraine #Poland
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Girkin is likely not very dangerous. Of course, no one will release him because he possesses unpleasant information. He is not the main one responsible for the destruction of the Malaysian Boeing.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I highly doubt that anything threatens Gerasimov. I would be very surprised if he is punished. Due to the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Kursk region of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Negotiations? No one will go to the negotiating table with him. Ukraine will not engage in negotiations with him, which is quite obvious, until he withdraws his troops... to the 1991. To the 1991 borders
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I don't think that Arestovych has a chance to return to Ukrainian politics.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Plus, the governors, who undoubtedly, without a doubt, each dream of becoming the head of an independent state. There is not a single Russian governor who does not dream of becoming the head of an independent state. And as soon as the Putin regime starts to crack, they will try to realize their dream
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think this will end very soon. That the Russian language is an official language of the UN
Expected
#UN #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Russia will disappear as a serious player in the Middle East after some time.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I don't think that Prigozhin, like Kadyrov, is capable of taking any serious political position in present-day Russia... It is impossible to imagine that they would become some kind of ministers or head a federal structure.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

For Putin, any transfer of power simply means physical death, just physical death.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

What will happen? There is an opinion that there will definitely be some turmoil in the Caucasus... I think that none of this will happen. In the event of Ramzan Kadyrov's death.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am absolutely convinced that after the war, after Ukraine's victory, radical changes will occur in the UN. Either it will be reformed, or, more likely, another organization will be created alongside it, where there will be no veto power and no Russia.
Expected
#UN #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The option in which this regime will be destroyed and the war will end because the Russians will rise up does not exist. We just need to get rid of these illusions.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

It's pointless. It's understood that YouTube is just a fraction of political information... so this will not happen. About the possible blocking of YouTube in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that Russia after Putin simply will not remain as a unified state within the borders it currently occupies... the probability of this is very high, not one hundred percent, but high
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

In general, the idea that Putin will pass power to someone, I believe the probability of such an event is also zero... Putin will not transfer power.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Regarding the second question about him passing his throne to his daughter, I think the probability of such an event is zero; it is not close to zero, it is simply zero. About Putin transferring power to his daughter.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The most intense reaction was to the revocation of birthright citizenship. When Trump signed this order, reports in the press claim he called birthright citizenship "ridiculous." I believe the likelihood of this order being repealed is close to 100%.
Expected December 31, 2029
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that in this case, wishful thinking is being mistaken for reality. The war will not end in 2025, even if something unlikely happens and all the points of the victory plan are fulfilled. Referring to the victory plan that Zelensky presented on October 16, 2024.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine. If he becomes president.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en