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As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Will there be another round of negotiations with Medinsky? Yes, absolutely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

There will be no "temporary truce" for 30 days, of course. Between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon. In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think Germany’s support for Ukraine will increase after next February’s elections and will become more consistent.
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive. It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive. If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins. Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

This war will last with phases of fading... for up to three years, unfortunately. A year is certain.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

It seems that within the coming months, a rotten compromise will be reached, which will please neither side... but it is far better than senseless and merciless bloodshed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia

I do not believe that there will be any real negotiations in the coming months. So far, I do not see any leverage over Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this. There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #European Union

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

I don't see any opportunities today to decisively turn the situation in someone's favor... Most likely, everything will be pushed to next year. I don't see the resources for any side to achieve victory today... Most likely, everything will drag on until next May or the second half of April. The war in Ukraine will end, or there will be a significant turning point in it, by May 2025.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured. If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia