screenshot

Predictions and promises monitor

| About
en | ru

#War in Ukraine

Authors
194
Predictions
903
Verified
339
Came true
64%
Complex
60%
Confident
51%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Putinism, having survived this war, will become stronger, tougher, and more aggressive toward its citizens. After the war in Ukraine ends, the Putin regime will grow stronger.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will, for many years—decades even—have to pay compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian cities, industries, and energy systems, and will have to make significant concessions to return to international trade and cooperate with other countries, at least partially. This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will have to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine... This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Roman Svitan

At some point, we’ll be discussing how many Tomahawks we received, how they’ll be launched, and so on. That’s definitely how it’s going to be. We will get Tomahawks. But it’s important to understand that the Tomahawk itself isn’t a game-changer; it’s a missile that’s already half a century old. Ukraine will eventually receive Tomahawk missiles.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Of course not. If it becomes absolutely critical, he may be forced to proceed. But mobilization is the last thing he would do. In response to the question: "He (Putin) won’t go for mobilization?"
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I believe that, given Putin currently has four sources for replenishing cannon fodder, there’s no need for mobilization. I think it’s unlikely to happen. Never say never—of course, it could occur—but I don’t see it happening at the moment. For Putin, mobilization is a negative move; it creates tension.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Mercouris

I think everybody now the Americans, the Europeans, the Ukrainians themselves recognize that Ukraine is losing the war. Even The Economist a few weeks ago said Ukraine is losing the war. But I I don't share any optimism about a diplomatic solution or a negotiation.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
en

Sergei Markov

Russia currently controls 20.7% of Ukrainian territory. Before February 23, it was 7%. These calculations were made by Forbes. However, we disagree with them because they include Crimea in both the 7% and the 20.7%, and as everyone knows, Crimea is Russia. So, 20% under Russian control is still to come. And we foresee 30%, 40%, 50%, and even 60% in the future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

We'll take the risk of making a prediction. Most likely, there will be a negative response to all the points of the plan. The West will continue to pursue the same political line on Ukraine as before. Ukraine is needed as a proxy tool for the war against Russia, not as an asset for which the West would be willing to directly engage in conflict with Russia at the risk of nuclear war. Referring to Zelensky's Victory Plan.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Honestly, I don’t think there will be permission. In response to the question: "What do you think will happen with the permission regarding long-range missiles?" (Will the U.S. grant permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory?)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Here’s a more accurate and direct translation of your text: But from a pragmatic perspective, I understand that they won’t abandon Ukraine. And America, no matter who is president, will not be able to abandon it because abandoning Ukraine means abandoning Europe. Abandoning Europe means abandoning NATO and the European Union. Who will allow Trump to dismantle the EU and NATO? No one in America will allow it, no matter what he says. The U.S. will not abandon Ukraine.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Filippov

I don't believe there will be a second wave of mobilization because 24 years of Vladimir Putin’s rule have taught us that for him, appearing victorious is far more important than actually being victorious. It seems like he’s winning, it seems like everything in the country is fine—this illusion of a perfect image must remain untarnished. A second wave of mobilization would be an acknowledgment of problems.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michail Onufrienko

I'm confident that permission to use missiles deep within our territory, even the older territory recognized by the UN, will be granted. Referring to Russian territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

There definitely will be, just not right now. In response to the question: "Uncle Slava, will there be a second wave of mobilization?"
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Malgin

Putin has put himself in a position where he absolutely must win. However, he will not be able to win this war. He may claim some local achievements, but that will not amount to victory in light of the enormous losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

If a politician manages to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized as a just peace, they would undoubtedly be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the conflict. However, I believe this will not happen, because I don’t see any real prospects for such a political settlement in the foreseeable future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Genis

Ukraine has already won. Russia has already lost the war, no matter how it ends. Because Ukraine will never again be a part of Russia... Ukraine will be part of Europe, and it will become a member of the European Union and NATO. This is an inevitable course of events; the only unknown is how much more blood it will take to get there.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

When the full-scale invasion began, I realized that over time Ukraine would receive all Western weapons, and for free, with the exception of nuclear weapons, submarines, and aircraft carriers. This is basically obvious.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Ukraine can afford the luxury of launching hundreds, or even two hundred, drone strikes overnight. Our geography is vast, and there is plenty to destroy. We won’t just sit around dreaming of Tomahawks. Ukraine is already accomplishing these tasks today. In my hometown of Feodosia, an oil products base, which is very important, was blown up today. With these small tactical but significant steps, we are moving closer to our victory. My task is to assure you that victory will be ours; everything will be alright.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ilya Yashin

I believe that Putin has already lost this war. It’s clear that he won’t be able to win it. The goals that were initially declared—capturing Kyiv, denationalizing Ukraine (which, in simple terms, meant stripping it of its sovereignty), and demilitarizing Ukraine (which meant taking away its army and ability to resist)—essentially turning Ukraine into a puppet state under Kremlin control—are obviously unattainable.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Fesenko

As long as the current war is ongoing, not only will we not be in NATO, but there is a high probability that we will not be invited to NATO either. There will be some hints, but nothing more than that. The process of inviting Ukraine to NATO will not happen during the war. Because this is, if not a direct, then an obligation to help us in the war with Russia. They will not agree to this now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Agil Rustamzade

But it’s clear that this war is a dead end. For both sides. Even if the supply of weapons to you increases by 40-50 percent, you’ll just keep killing them, that’s all. More killing — if you're killing 1,000 people a day now, you’ll be killing 2,000. The other side will lose its human resources, but neither side will move forward or backward. You’ll keep using up weapons and taking losses as well. This war has no prospects for either side.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

It seems to me that Ukraine will become a weapons center in Europe after winning the war. Even now, a huge number of manufacturing facilities are being opened there... As far as I understand, underground factories are being built.
Expected
#Ukraine #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear that the Sarmat missile won’t be used in the current war in any way. It’s more about boosting the prestige of the Russian army, specifically Putin. Putin used to love threatening with these Sarmats, showing cartoons of them hitting Florida with their missiles. And now we’re seeing these technical problems, with the missiles blowing up again and again.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There are no interests for either Trump or Biden to end the Ukrainian war... Do you think Trump will stop supplying weapons to Zelensky? I believe he absolutely will not.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Sooner or later, this war will end only with the destruction of the state known as the Russian Federation. There will be no such state. There will be no such country.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons of Euro-Atlantic origin... I believe that this permission will be granted, that’s my prediction. Perhaps in a more limited, compromise form—allowing strikes with British-American Storm Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles, but not with American ATACMS. Permission for Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #United Kingdom #France
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I believe that the most likely and inevitable outcome of the war is a freezing of the conflict along the front line, followed by negotiations... The other question is where the front line will be at that time.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Douglas Murray

I think that in the case of Ukraine sad as I am about it it'll probably end up having to be a land swap situation and there'll be redrawing of the borders as it's terrible but since the spring offensive failed last year I don't think that the Ukrainians have had enough of a military success since 2022.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
en

Kirill Martynov

For 2.5 years, they’ve been puffing their chests and telling everyone that their “special military operation” is eternal, forever, and that the ashes will always beat in our hearts... But as soon as the first conflicts arise and the first excuses to forget about this so-called heroic feat, which Putin’s army went off to perform in a foreign country for unknown reasons, the so-called heroes of the “special military operation” will be forgotten instantly. Because it’s a shameful, dishonest, and completely unpopular war that nobody ever needed.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

If victory is considered to be the restoration of the borders of 1991, then no, that will not happen. Ukraine will not restore its internationally recognized borders of 1991.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

The use of nuclear weapons would immediately put him in a category of people with whom neither India nor China would be willing or able to cooperate economically. China is currently keeping Russia afloat economically. Putin and his government are practically crawling to the Chinese on their knees every year.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine #China #India
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I believe that Putin's death will either immediately end the war or the war will come to an end... I think that Putin's death will lead to a situation where, over a certain period of time, the situation on the fronts will begin to change, and the new leadership of Russia will start looking for ways to end the war as quickly as possible in order to begin the division of power.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Mykhailo Podolyak

His statements are absolutely clear; this is a classic propaganda framework against the backdrop of the possibility of scaling the war on Russian territory. The person understands what the escalation of the war will lead to. As soon as the escalation begins — in about two months, we will see everything that Prigozhin did not manage to finish... A multitude, tens of thousands of armed people storming the storage facilities of local feudal lords across the country and chasing after individuals who were part of Putin's inner circle. This is so obvious because Russia loves uprisings.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Boris Pastukhov

I am convinced that the end of this war... is more like the case of the First World War than the Second World War. In other words, the end of the war should result in a failure within one of the countries and its collapse from within. Not in terms of breaking apart, but in terms of the collapse of the government and administration. Unlike the Second World War, where one side was pushed to the capital of the other.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

The second peace summit cannot be more successful than the first. And the first one was not successful at all... Unfortunately, the peace summit cannot help us.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don't believe that with Putin alive, with Putin who is free, there will be at least a ceasefire established; I'm not even talking about peace. Simply because our interests are directly opposed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Anatoly Wasserman

When we pass through Donbass, everything will go much faster. Because further ahead there are areas where the distances between populated points are tens of kilometers, and very rapid maneuvers are possible there. If Russia takes Donbass, then the advancement of its troops will be significantly faster.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Moscow does not want to participate in any peace summits and will not participate in the second summit; it will not participate, even as an observer. It will not participate.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mykhailo Podolyak

Will there be an escalation of the war? Will there be a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO that could escalate into a third world war? No, there will not be.
Expected
#Russia #NATO #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

And since Ukraine will eventually get more long-range missiles—either the West will allow it, or Ukraine will develop them on its own using Western technology, as Yuzhmash is a powerful scientific and industrial complex that knows how to build missiles—they will build these long-range missiles themselves. And we, meaning Russia, will be on the receiving end. There's no avoiding that.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

But still, it seems more realistic to me that, when considering the context of a nuclear response or an attempt at nuclear blackmail, it is more likely that they will conduct nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya... This is more likely. Why? Because the level of control over the situation there is much higher. This will have an effect on the West. None on Ukraine.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

If we’re talking about the war and its end in Ukraine’s favor, Putin isn’t going anywhere. It will be the same Putin with the same circle around him. He’ll continue to rule. Even if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Putin will remain in power.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Shvets

The dismissal of Yermak. Period... The victory plan and Yermak's role as Ukraine's regent or top leader are incompatible with any plan for victory. There can be no victory... Until Yermak is dismissed, there will be no victory for Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en