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The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward. Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul.
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First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
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Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
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Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
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Trump urged Ukraine to agree to the meeting on May 15, so it seems to me that it should take place. Referring to the meeting with Russia in Istanbul on May 15.
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Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
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With a high degree of probability, Ukraine will refuse to participate in the negotiations in Istanbul.
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I think the negotiation process will begin by spring. Talks between Russia, Ukraine, and mediators will start.
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Zelensky agreed to negotiations in Istanbul but personally called on Putin to attend. It’s clear that Vladimir Putin himself will not go to the negotiations.
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Tomorrow, May 15, there is a high likelihood that no meeting between Zelensky and Putin will take place.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
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No. No, of course not. In response to the question: "Tell me, do you think Putin will come to Istanbul tomorrow or not?"
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I tend to believe that Putin, of course, will not fly to Turkey. In response to the question: "What should we expect from the meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Turkey?"
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To be honest, I find it hard to believe that Putin will come, because I don’t see it happening — and I think he’s afraid of direct negotiations, especially on neutral ground, where there will be no propaganda, no support, and he’ll have to sit at the same table with Zelensky. I think Putin is afraid, so I doubt he’ll come. In response to the question: "What’s your prediction? Will Putin come?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for talks with Zelensky)
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No, of course he won’t fly there. I even placed a bet on it. In response to the question: "Do you think Putin will go to Istanbul for negotiations with Zelensky?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

Putin responded during the night with his proposal for a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. We've seen Zelensky's response... Will Putin agree or not? My personal opinion is that, of course, he won’t come, and of course, nothing will happen. Putin will not come to Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

It seems to me that he is considering taking this risky step — the step of signing a truce with Ukraine. I don’t know whether he will go to Istanbul or not; I admit that he might. Of course, I agree that there’s a 99.9% chance he won’t go, but still, I allow for the possibility that it could happen. 99.9% chance that Putin will not go to the negotiations with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15.
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The negotiations on May 15 are expected to fall through, since Putin will not attend talks with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

In my view, it is impossible to reach any kind of agreement right now. No matter what level the delegations are represented at—even if Putin himself comes, which I highly doubt—Putin has been saying from the very beginning that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate. (Putin will not attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
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I don’t believe he’ll come. In response to the question: "In short, I think Putin will have to come up with something more impressive. And what can he do except act tough and show up in Istanbul on Thursday? What do you think will happen?"
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Zelensky said he would personally come to Istanbul and wait there for Vladimir Putin. A strong move. Putin definitely won’t go there.
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Talks in Istanbul — what’s going on? 1. Putin won’t go to Zelensky because Zelensky wants to stage a hostile show. 2. But if Trump comes, then Putin will come too.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA

When will the Russian delegation arrive in Istanbul? I don’t know who will be there. It’s unlikely that Putin will respond to such an invitation from Zelensky — “I’ll be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday in person”. Knowing the character of our Petersburg comrades, they’ll react to this with a smirk and won’t go in response to such an invitation. At most, they’ll say: “Send Arahamia, and we’ll send Vladimir Rostislavovich Medinsky”
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So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

In Ukraine today, the situation with the repair of the energy sector is better than it was two years ago... Ukraine cannot be destroyed... It is completely impossible to bring it to its knees. Ukraine will survive this winter. Both Zelensky and Zelensky's rating will survive it. Kharkiv residents will survive it too. This means that Ukraine will not surrender this winter and will not accept Russia's conditions due to the fact that Russia is destroying its energy infrastructure.
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine

I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky will soon arrive at the White House for the signing of an agreement on rare earth metals and the transfer of Ukraine's infrastructure to a U.S. fund. He will not be the one signing it, but he will be present. And the funniest part? He will be wearing a business suit. The days of dirty, unwashed sweatshirts and cargo pants are over for the White House.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

Tomorrow everyone is nervous, waiting for something — am I waiting? Who the hell knows, but I have the feeling that the real red lines are not to kill Comrade Xi or even to scare Comrade Xi. These lines are clear to the Ukrainian side, so I assume nothing will happen tomorrow, and the parade, if you watch it, will go smoothly without a hitch. Meaning that Ukraine will not attack the parade on Red Square in Moscow on May 9.
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I tend to believe that there won’t be a deliberate attempt to strike during the parade. But it cannot be ruled out. Talking about possible Ukrainian attempts to strike the May 9 parade in Moscow.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
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In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
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The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
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Easter is just a week away, even just 6 days. It’s absolutely clear that there will be no truce by that time.
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We all understand perfectly well that no matter how much Donald Trump may wish it, if certain objectives are not achieved — and they won’t be — we can say this: until May 9th, there’s no point in even opening our mouths or thinking that any kind of ceasefire might happen.
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I think that by Easter, or maybe by May 9, there will be some kind of agreement on a ceasefire.
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No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
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No, there won’t be. There will be no ceasefire. I say this with deep sorrow. In response to the question: “Do you think there will be a full ceasefire by Easter?”
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One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
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I personally believe that the issue will be resolved by May 9. Referring to the war in Ukraine.
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Forecast for February-March 2025: the creation of a "victory image" in the media, alongside a crackdown on "ultra-patriots" who want Odesa to be part of Russia. They will be told that Russia doesn’t need Odesa at all.
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It seems to me that this is more of a rhetorical trick, and to actually end the Russia-Ukraine war, not just in 24 hours but even within a few months, will be practically impossible. Trump might try, but the question is, at what cost, and not everything here will depend on him.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

I am confident that at the current pace of development of this technology, within six months at most, the entire front line will generally be closed to Russian reconnaissance drones. They will not be able to fly unpunished in the air, especially over Ukrainian positions. Perhaps they will have the opportunity to fly somewhere over their territory under the protection of their air defense, somewhere far from Ukrainian intercepting drones.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Likewise. In response to one's own question: "Will anything happen during the parade on May 9, or not?", to which Stanislav Belkovsky replied, "No, I don’t think anything will happen" — referring to possible Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and the May 9 parade.
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No, I don’t think anything will happen. In response to the question: "Will anything happen during the parade on May 9, or not?" — referring to possible Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and the May 9 parade.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If we summarize the situation on the front lines, there will only be bad news in the near future... Unfortunately, everything is unfolding according to a negative scenario. In the near future, news from the front lines of the war in Ukraine will be unfavorable for Ukraine's supporters.
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I don’t think that anything will change in a global sense immediately after the elections... The U.S. elections are a significant event that shapes future developments. But I don’t believe that once the day has passed and the votes are counted, we’ll wake up in a different world. If things do change, it will happen gradually. In response to the question: "Do you feel that Putin will stop soon after the U.S. elections?" (Implying that Putin will stop the war in Ukraine after the 2024 U.S. presidential election)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #2024 United States presidential election

More than two years have passed, and there’s still no mobilization, nor is it planned—there’s no sign of it on the horizon for the coming months. In Russia
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I don't think it's close. It could have all ended if Ukraine had been broken. After all, the goal of any war is to break the enemy... talking about the possibility of ending the war now or easing mutual hatred—I don't see that happening. In response to the question: "What do you think about the end of the war? Is it near?"
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To be honest, I think the earliest timeframe is somewhere around March-April. The earliest possible end of the war.
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Back on the 6th–7th, that truce was nothing more than a statement. No one even tried to pretend it existed. It’s hard to predict. But I’ll probably be right if I say that in this case it will be more or less the same — we’ll see all those insane attempts to continue the assaults, just as they’ve been carried out over the past couple of years, in columns on bicycles and other motorcycles. And none of it will fit into the framework of a truce. He’s saying that the Easter truce announced by Putin won’t be observed, just like the Christmas truce in 2023 wasn’t.
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I don't think so. In response to the question: "Do you think there will be an Easter truce in Ukraine?"
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There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
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We need to prepare for the possibility that in winter, Russia will likely launch a large-scale infantry offensive with significant forces.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

As of today, and for the next few weeks or months, I don’t see any possibility of North Korean soldiers being present in Ukraine... Any clash between the Ukrainian army and North Koreans will take place on Russian territory, not on Ukrainian territory. This is an important point, and I want to emphasize it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #North Korea #Russia

It is obvious that in a month or two, the special military operation will end and peace will come.
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We just made a bet with the cameraman before the broadcast on whether the conflict would be frozen by April 1st or not. The cameraman is betting it will. I don't believe in such a scenario. Talking about the war in Ukraine.
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A cautious forecast—the Kursk region will be cleared of Ukrainian forces by the end of March.
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If the pace of the offensive does not change—and, generally speaking, I personally see no reason to believe it will, referring to the Russian offensive—then, in the foreseeable future, meaning within a few months, it is clear that Putin will not achieve one of his most politically significant goals. In the coming months, the Russian army will not push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

If negotiations do not begin and no ceasefire is reached, another so-called partial mobilization—completely free of charge—will be announced in Russia in March.
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