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I expect a decrease to 18%. Answer to the question: "What do you expect from July 25th, what will the Central Bank do?" (with the key rate in Russia)
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What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
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A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
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First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
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I think that by the end of 2024, the number of billionaires in Russia will grow again—that’s my prediction.
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Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
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For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
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I think they will simply ask one of the bankers to sell, and the exchange rate will stabilize and go down. I don’t think it will stay at this 114 level just yet—it’s too early for that. I believe they’ll bring it down to around 107-105 and keep it there for some time. Rubles per dollar.
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