Predictions and promises monitor

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Igor Lipsitz

Economist (Russia)

Predictions
46
Verified
14
Came true
71%
Complex
71%
Confident
14%
6.39

Igor Lipsitz

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
Expected November 24, 2025
#USA #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected November 15, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn. In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn.
Expected November 1, 2025
#Gasoline #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #India #China #Trump #Economy #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected August 31, 2025
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Dollar #Euro #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
Expected July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en