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During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
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There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
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If the pace of the offensive does not change—and, generally speaking, I personally see no reason to believe it will, referring to the Russian offensive—then, in the foreseeable future, meaning within a few months, it is clear that Putin will not achieve one of his most politically significant goals. In the coming months, the Russian army will not push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
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Until the end of the autumn campaign, which is about a month from now, Russian forces will likely continue advancing. It appears that a significant part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) will be pushed out of the Kursk region, although perhaps not completely. At least, all recent trends seem to point in this direction.
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Honestly, I don’t think there will be permission. In response to the question: "What do you think will happen with the permission regarding long-range missiles?" (Will the U.S. grant permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory?)
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I don't think so. The answer to the question: 'How necessary are strikes deep into the territory (of Russia) beyond the 100 km zone for the Armed Forces of Ukraine right now... Do you think that before the elections in the USA, before the beginning of November, such permission from Washington to Kyiv could be obtained?'
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There are every reason to believe that in the next few days, or perhaps a week, this area south of the Seym River (which is essentially squeezed between the Seym River to the north and the border of the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the east) will come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Part of the territory of the Kursk region of Russia.
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Now these explosions of pagers and other devices. I think it's not a coincidence that they happened... the fact that they occurred indicates that the war is about to start in earnest. The war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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I think that this is practically impossible. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance from the right bank of the Dnieper to the left bank in the area of Kherson.
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I think they will give them. There are certain considerations here. Response to the question: "So, Yuri Evgenyevich, do you think they will provide ATACMS?"
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The only thing that can currently unite the FSB, the army, and the civilian bureaucracy is the desire to remove Prigozhin. He will be removed. He will die in a car accident or some other unfortunate situation.
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Will the Russians be able to reach the border of the Donetsk region in the foreseeable future or not... I actually think they won't, at least not in the near future.
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Well, I think that sooner or later something similar to what happened on October 10 will happen again, yes. Some kind of explosion occurred. Referring to the fact that the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge will be damaged again. The previous incident was not on the 10th, but on the 8th of October.
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I don't think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can reach Luhansk this fall or winter.
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But even if we assume that Bakhmut will be taken... which is itself unlikely.
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The very idea of a referendum in the Kherson region has failed... There will be no such referendum
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