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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
444
Predictions
3110
Verified
1147
Came true
65%
Complex
57%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Sergey Grabskiy

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months. In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?)
Expected November 4, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think, more likely yes. Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine)
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now. In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?"
Expected November 2, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn. In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn.
Expected November 1, 2025
#Gasoline #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #India #China #Trump #Economy #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
Expected October 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected October 31, 2025
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
Expected October 31, 2025
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Elon Musk

He will be gone in the upcoming election. Response to the request: "We need your help in Canada getting rid of Trudeau"
Expected October 31, 2025
#Canada #Elections
en

Aleksandr Morozov

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon.
Expected October 16, 2025
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected October 13, 2025
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly.
Expected October 7, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon.
Expected October 6, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise. Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin.
Expected October 5, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it.
Expected October 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context.
Expected October 1, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

It will definitely. France is bound to recognize it, of course it will, 100%. In response to the question: "Will Europe recognize Palestine in September?"
Expected September 30, 2025
#Palestine #Europe
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly. Due to Trump's ultimatum.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Win/Win

The most important thing about Trump's ultimatum isn't the ultimatum itself, but his resentment. Putin, he says, didn't even call me after my last ultimatum. Overall, the sanctions aren't that great; to implement them, you'd have to fight not only Russia but the entire world except the West. Most likely, Trump won't introduce new duties, but will simply exit the game. He'll say, "I threatened and threatened, but they're not scared. I don't want to be friends with the Russians." He'll become friends with Zelenskyy instead.
Expected September 30, 2025
#USA #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Win/Win

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending. Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill)
Expected September 30, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
Expected September 30, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Praful Bakshi

In my view, the likelihood of a military clash exists, and it may increase, but it will not escalate into a full-scale war... It could be a regional conflict. Regional means that in some border sectors there may be shelling, even intense shelling.
Expected September 30, 2025
#India #Pakistan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Arti Green

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Turkey. 1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally. 2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down. 3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Turkey
ru → en

Dina Lisnyansky

A military campaign against Iran... I am inclined to believe that such a confrontation is apparently inevitable now, meaning it will happen, and it will happen quite soon. We won't discuss exactly how soon — days, weeks, it doesn't matter. It will happen in the near future, that’s clear. As for negotiations, apparently, there will be no negotiations at this moment because those negotiations also depended on the reformist, relatively moderate wing of the phalanx in the Iranian parliament.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

I am quite sure that this will not happen. In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine)
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power. Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting."
Expected September 30, 2025
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan.
Expected September 28, 2025
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
Expected September 23, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected September 19, 2025
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
Expected September 19, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

So far, the Central Bank has not announced a further rate cut. I think they will extend this rate at the next meeting. This is my forecast. In Russia.
Expected September 12, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate.
Expected September 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
Expected September 8, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

A fake story has been spread about a supposedly planned meeting of Trump's associates in Europe, allegedly with both Trump and Zelensky participating. This is all being done to hijack the agenda being dictated by the summit in China. There won't be any meeting in Europe. At least not with Trump.
Expected September 5, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Pavel Schelin

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en