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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
450
Predictions
3208
Verified
1199
Came true
65%
Complex
58%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Ian Matveev

A Kherson counteroffensive is impossible. How would they cross the Dnieper? It's unrealistic for anyone, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army, so nothing serious is brewing on that front.
Expected January 3, 2026
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolai Korzhenevskiy

Returning to the Bank of Russia, it will want to see how this will affect inflationary expectations, so definitely until January 1st, no one will be lowering the key rate quickly. Referring to the key rate.
Expected January 1, 2026
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

If this war lasts until January 2026 — and I’m sure it will — then it will have lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. A lot of people are dying, but Putin doesn’t care. And unfortunately, Ukraine has no way out.
Expected January 1, 2026
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I believe it is zero. I don't see any such chances for a freeze in the war. There are two and a half months left until the New Year. No, I consider it impossible. Answer to the question: "What do you think is the chance of the war ending before the New Year?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Will they capture Siversk? It is very unlikely that they will capture it this year; most likely they won't capture it.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I'll stick with my opinion for now that the Chief of the General Staff will be replaced by the end of the year. Referring to Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of Russia.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Is there a chance for 14%? In my opinion, there's no chance of that. There is a chance for 16% by the end of the year, but... Referring to the key rate in Russia, stating that it won't be 14% by the end of 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

I'm still inclined to believe that he will resolve this issue somehow by the end of the year. Either he'll arrange some kind of temporary truce, or he'll go all out. Something will happen by the end of the year. You promised it in a day, but a year is already just around the corner. Trump will make some important decisions regarding the war in Ukraine by the end of the year.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My very cautious forecast is that they will not occupy the Donetsk region up to its administrative borders this year—they won't. They = Russia.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

My prediction is that by the end of the year, the kill zone will become insurmountable, and it won't matter how much infantry we have there. There will simply be enough to hold the front. The infantry won't be holding it; unmanned systems will.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Bet! I don't think you'll face criminal charges by New Year's. Dmitry Treshchanin won't have a criminal case opened against him before New Year's.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

My answer is, unfortunately, I don't think there will be a truce this year. Answer to the question: "Do you think there's any hope for peace or at least a truce this year?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I don't think that either Ukraine or Russia will have enough strength to continue this war until 2026. I have a feeling that some kind of political process has begun—a process of understanding that this war needs to be stopped.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Artamonov

No, never. I don't believe in a truce or an end to the conflict. It's impossible. Answer to the question: "Will the conflict end in 2025?" (War in Ukraine)
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s very important not to repeat Putin’s mistake. Apparently, Putin believes he is winning and that a moment may come when the Ukrainian army is completely exhausted, the front collapses, the army retreats, and nothing is left of it. He believes he can seize that moment to capture significantly more territory and win the war. He’s waiting for that — he believes such a moment will come. We are confident that such a moment will not come. The current supply of ammunition and equipment is, more or less, sufficient for Ukraine to sustain the war at its present pace.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

No, he won’t advance. In response to the question: "Will Putin reach Zaporizhzhia this year? What's your forecast?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I think the pressure on Putin will increase, and he will feel it. I still don’t believe he’ll bend under that pressure... He needs to keep on fighting. The military budget shows no signs of shrinking. Digital draft notices have been activated... All in all, I don’t believe the war will end.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
Expected December 31, 2025
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Don't scare yourself with the Indo-Pakistani conflict. India and Pakistan have fought many times with each other... With a very high probability, this will be a series of border incidents, limited in scope to somewhere in Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed state.
Expected December 31, 2025
#India #Pakistan
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

The probability is about 80 to 20 that a ceasefire will happen. There will be some kind of deal by the end of the year — maybe even sooner. Based on how I feel, it’s bound to happen. In response to the question: "Will the war end this year?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Pivovarov

In February, I was in Munich and I clearly heard conversations within the American delegation and among European politicians that April 20 would definitely be the point when a truce would take place. Now it’s April 21, and it hasn’t happened. My prediction is that, in some form, we will still see something — if not a truce, then at least a freeze — before the end of the year. All sides are interested in it.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves. By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Given that OPEC+ isn’t planning to cut production — in fact, they’re planning to increase it — the pressure is downward. I don’t think it will bounce back to the level it was at under the Trump presidency, no. In response to the question: "I understand that it’s impossible to predict oil prices, but still — what trend would you point to right now?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe
ru → en

Natalia Evdokimova

As for arms purchases, I think Europe will probably help Ukraine buy weapons, because most likely Ukraine doesn’t have the funds to do it on its own.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Europe
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe there will be a certain degree of distancing now, but not total, not fatal, because the set of arguments in favor of their alliance hasn’t been exhausted yet. They will move closer or further apart depending on how useful or harmful Trump considers Musk to be at any given moment.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Denis Borisov

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Musk’s sales are down 50 percent, and the market cap is down 17 percent. Smart Democrats in Congress have already picked up on this. They’re buying like crazy — buying Tesla stock. Because it will go up. It can’t go down.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I believe that if the cartel breaks up in the fall or by the end of the year and stops manipulating production, and each country starts producing as much as it can, then prices will drop below 50 dollars per barrel.
Expected December 31, 2025
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can. About OPEC
Expected December 31, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

My prediction remains the same as it was six months ago, three months ago, and a month ago — namely, that Trump will not achieve real peace in Ukraine. Putin will continue to escalate... Therefore, in 2025, I believe there will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. And even if, by some miracle, a 30-day ceasefire is agreed upon, it will be broken.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

The Japanese have already told America off — they just haven’t said it out loud... They will 100% speak up about the atomic bomb, they will 100% bring it up now — you’ll see, before the New Year, they’ll start bringing up Hiroshima again...
Expected December 31, 2025
#Japan #Nuclear weapons
ru → en