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I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
#Trump #USA #Iran

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
#Iran #Israel #USA

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
#Iran #USA #Israel

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
#Iran #Israel

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

This is not a prediction. It seems to me that we're talking about a change of the Iranian regime. Protests will begin, and the ayatollahs' regime will not withstand them.
#Iran

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent. A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Look, the important forecast regarding Iran is that this won’t last long. Why? Because a ground operation is impossible. It’s not feasible because the countries are located far from each other. Who would land troops where, and how would they fight? Iran against Israel and Israel against Iran—it’s a remote war: a missile war, a drone war. There might be a special operation, but this is not a ground war. The second reason is that Israel doesn’t need Iran—it’s not planning to capture it or annex it to its territory. The current war between Israel and Iran will not last long.
#Iran #Israel

As for the oil price, since there is no scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I think the price isn’t under much threat — it will be a bit nervous, but then it will settle down.
#Oil #Economy

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
#USA #China #Trump #Economy

Yes, I believe so. I'm sure a meeting between Putin and Trump will happen soon.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

Will there be another round of negotiations with Medinsky? Yes, absolutely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for the ruble, it is within its value range. And I don’t think there will be any significant movements either up or down.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Overnight, a full-scale war between India and Pakistan began almost unnoticed. Despite its peaceful rhetoric, it was in fact Pakistan that started the war by launching missile strikes, even targeting India’s capital, New Delhi. Both sides are now continuing to move troops toward the borders. The war is unavoidable. Let there be good!
#India #Pakistan

Translation: The war between India and Pakistan — do you think it will have a strong impact on the global economy? Well, as things are going, I would venture to predict that they will exchange some strikes and won’t continue beyond that, because for both of them, an all-out war with each other would have colossal and devastating consequences.
#India #Pakistan

Two major powers, one with a population of 1.5 billion people, the other with a population of 220 million people, and they are on the brink of war. However, many experts — and I agree with them — tend to believe that there will not be a serious war. The sides will exchange airstrikes, they already have, and afterward there will be a pause and negotiations will begin. India may consider itself satisfied, or maybe not, and Pakistan will respond.
#India #Pakistan

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
#Dollar #Euro #Economy

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
#Iran #USA #Trump

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems to me that with Iran, everything is coming to a point where either they will have to start a direct dialogue with the Americans, as the Americans want, or the Americans will start bombing them. I don't see a third possible outcome. We'll see in the coming weeks or months.
#Iran #USA

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son.
#USA

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I strongly doubt that he will annex Greenland, honestly. At this stage, I don't see that as a realistic prospect.
#Greenland #USA #Denmark

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
#Israel #Iran

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
#Ukraine #Elections

By August, 112-117. The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia by August 2025.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There is a high probability that elections will take place by mid-year. In response to the question: "Will 2025 be an election year in Ukraine?"
#Ukraine #Elections

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia

Why GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN will rise in price when TRUMP becomes President again... I predict gold will rise from $2,400 an ounce to $ 3,300: silver from $29.00 an ounce to $ 79.00: and Bitcoin from $67,400 per coin to $105,000 by August 2025.
#Bitcoin #Economy #USA

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
#Russia #USA

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel.
#Oil #Economy

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
#USA #Iran #Israel

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop. Iran's nuclear facilities.
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons

Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? My prediction is no. My prediction is no. Why? Because then they would also lose Khark Island, the oil terminal, the refineries, and essentially their entire oil industry.
#Iran #Oil

I'll make a prediction. I believe that Iran will not succeed in inflicting very serious damage on Israel — that’s my forecast. Yes, some missiles, Shaheds, and ballistic rockets may reach Israeli territory, possibly even some military sites, but they will not cause significant damage. In the current phase of the war between Israel and Iran.
#Israel #Iran

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy