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There is a feeling that it is absolutely inevitable in the near future (In response to: "Do you believe in the possibility of a big trade war between the US and China?")

If peace is achieved, in the format that we can currently imagine, then Crimea will certainly be recognized as Russian. I simply don't see how the Kremlin could concede this on the part of the Americans

How likely is a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Zelensky?... If a meeting takes place, it will mean that the war is coming to an end

This is a consistent policy of the Israeli state—to grant asylum to all Jews regardless of the reason they are compelled to repatriate. So of course Israel will protect Zelensky if he makes that decision

The norms of international relations are becoming a thing of the past. The International Court of Justice has lost all authority before our very eyes. I think it's unlikely that we will ever regard it as a serious force

Do not doubt it for a second. This is a prediction from Mikhail Svetov: the same methods of influence that France is currently testing on Pavel Durov will be tried on Elon Musk after some time

My very cautious prediction is that the fight against VPNs in Europe, not in the next one to two years but over a 10-year span, will also become widespread. The same situation currently unfolding in Russia, where people have massively switched to VPNs, will repeat itself in Europe

This is a take that I plan to revisit in four years to post it in a thread about how Mikhail Svetov warned you about this. A beneficial political strategy for the opposing Democratic presidential candidate in the 2028 election will be a promise to publish the names of the people on the Epstein list, and an attack on the Trump administration for refusing to do so. Because that could have cast a shadow over Donald Trump himself, because they were covering for certain people who are on those lists. I can easily picture this. Moreover, I'm even willing to bet some money on it, that it will be part of the discussion in 2028 and one of the lines of attack that the left will use against Trump's supporters. Definitely

When the Democrats published a dossier on the wiretapping that Nixon placed in his political opponent's headquarters, it led to Nixon's impeachment and a shake-up of the American political system. The publication of this dossier will most likely not lead to anything at all. Because that is Donald Trump's signature style (He is speaking about a U.S. National Intelligence report that there is evidence the Democratic Party deliberately created a hoax about Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election)

A weakened Russia suits China as a forced, subordinate partner. Therefore, I don't think any war could happen between Russia and China in the near future. I think everything suits China today

My prediction, and unfortunately I think it will definitely come true, is that the Kremlin will gradually block other communication methods and channels to push people towards using the Max messenger

If Elon Musk's American party succeeds, I'll once again say, "Here's a man who bent the course of history to his will." But right now, I think the chances of success are minimal, while the chances that he'll cause damage, including to the values he hopes to promote with this party—that chance, I believe, is very, very high

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic

I think Canada will stagnate, and since there is a public demand for change, I believe you'll go through the same process the United States went through. A systemic candidate will win — just like Joe Biden did. The entire Canadian political elite will breathe a sigh of relief and pretend that normalcy has been preserved. For four years, nothing will be done. And then some charismatic, striking leader from the right will emerge and finally put an end to the Canadian swamp. That's my modest prediction

I consider that a far-fetched scenario. I would see it as a serious mistake on Trump’s part if he tries to do it (In response to the question: "Do you think he will run for another term? Will he seek re-election?")

In the event of a full-scale war between India and Pakistan, it is likely that China will launch military actions not only in the direction of Taiwan, but also toward Bhutan, a significant portion of whose territory China continues to claim

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon (On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul)

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed

What future awaits Akim Apachev? I think it's quite an unseemly one. We've seen what happened to Strelkov

Putin is stronger than he was 4 years ago. This is a reality that must be acknowledged. And the scenarios that seemed realistic back then are not realistic at all today. Therefore, I don’t believe in the “snuffbox scenario” at all (The “snuffbox” refers to the fate of Russian Emperor Paul I, who was killed by conspirators using a snuffbox)

The entire security theater that was established in Russia, both for the start of the war and for combating the Chinese coronavirus, failed to protect Muscovites from becoming victims of a terrorist attack organized by the Islamic State. Unfortunately, my prediction is that as the situation in the Middle East continues to destabilize, the number of such terrorist attacks on Russian territory will increase. God forbid this happens. My pessimistic forecast is that it will happen because no effective tools for combating Islamic terrorism have been established in Russia

It seems to me that the expansion of the European Union will pause for now. Not because Serbia cannot fulfill certain accession obligations, but because, in general, this political project is currently experiencing a crisis. I find it easier to predict that another country might leave the EU rather than Serbia being accepted into it (Response to the question: "Does Serbia have a chance to join the European Union in the coming years?")

It doesn’t matter what price Bitcoin has right now; over a 10-year period, it will still grow significantly

Trump’s rise to power, in particular, means that energy prices will fall because Trump promises to increase production

Do you think it’s realistic that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested and convicted in The Hague? To me, that seems like an absolutely improbable scenario

My prediction is that I don’t feel it will be a major event — probably around a thousands people will show up at the rally, maybe three thousand at most (In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya))

I think no one doubted that Lukashenko would rule Belarus until his own end. He will not leave the office of president as a result of elections

My prediction is that, in Georgia, there won’t be any new coup. First, because people have already gone through such a change and have realized the price these shifts demand. Second, because they don’t lead to the outcomes that society usually expects. It’s a rather grim thought

With a high probability, Maia Sandu will still manage to win in the second round, but the result will fall short of what her European partners were hoping for

Everything suggests that Donald Trump is very likely to win the upcoming elections

Zelensky, in a conversation with Trump, stated directly that if Ukraine is not given access to NATO, it will develop its own nuclear weapons, and supposedly it would only take Ukraine a few weeks to do so. It's clear that this is largely a bluff, and it's unlikely that anyone would actually allow Ukraine to do something like that

I’ll make a cautious prediction, one that I’ve already made on Twitter. I think it’s important. It seems to me that the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s (FBK) defense will be built on the fact that Alexei Navalny knew about Zheleznyak, that they’ve had a long-standing relationship, and that Maxim Katz, in trying to distance Navalny’s team from the FBK, is engaging in manipulations. They will likely provide us with additional evidence that Zheleznyak has been with the FBK for a long time. From their public rhetoric, I get the impression that this will be their line of defense

Leonid Nevzlin is already banned from entering Russia. The problem with Leonid Nevzlin isn’t his current political positions; it’s that he’s accused in a case of theft, which is quite convincing, to begin with. Secondly, he’s also being charged in a case of conspiracy to commit murder, which is also fairly credible. Leonid Nevzlin will never return to Russia

In my opinion, after reaching 100-120 thousand, there will be a significant pullback. That's my prediction (After Bitcoin breaks through 100 thousand, there will be a significant pullback)

I think that in the near future, Bitcoin will break through 100 thousand

If the escalation of the war continues, then my prediction is unfavorable; unfortunately, we will see a new wave of mobilization (In Russia)

If we need to predict how exactly Telegram will be killed in Russia, I can make that prediction. Because I see how this is happening in Brazil, where Telegram has been constrained. Certain channels are being blocked in Brazil. So, globally, Telegram channels are not banned, but they are cut off from a significant part of the local audience. Because if you are accessing Telegram from a Brazilian IP address and want to subscribe to some Brazilian Telegram channel, Telegram does not allow you to do this for the same reason that when you open certain Telegram channels on an iPhone, it says that they are unavailable due to iOS policy. This balkanization of the internet as a whole and Telegram in particular will happen, and it seems to me that, unfortunately, this is indeed the most likely scenario for the degradation of Telegram

The power in Russia will not change through democratic means

I generally believe that we have not yet passed the most terrifying point... all those small conflicts that are gradually smoldering around the world will eventually culminate in a larger war... my prediction is not optimistic... my prediction is that, unfortunately, there will be a major war within the next 20 years

What does a favorable scenario for Ukraine in the war look like today? Everything will stop... and the losses that have been incurred will be recorded... This is a scenario that neither Zelensky's cabinet nor the people who made political decisions over the past two years will survive (The scenario of stopping the war along the current line of combat contact will not be survived by Zelensky's team)

Notice that I did not mention the Anti-Corruption Foundation because I sincerely believe that they have no political future in Russia. I think a critical number of fatal mistakes have been made, making them vulnerable to being taken down by anyone

I have a subconscious feeling that these positions are being taken because they fear losing grants, on which, apparently, a significant part of liberal organizations in Russia depends. The Democratic Party is indeed much more generous in funding opposition movements in other countries. And if Trump wins, the flow of money will most likely dry up significantly. That’s my hypothesis

There is one thing that can be said unequivocally. In the case of a non-total defeat in the war against Ukraine, the regime in Russia will not change. This can be stated with certainty

The war in Taiwan will, of course, devastate the economies of the entire world (A hypothetical war)

Iran is preparing for war with Israel, but has allowed for the possibility of refraining from attacking Israel if the UN condemns the strike on Damascus, which seems unlikely to me. This means the US must condemn the strike on Damascus. This will not happen

Is there a prospect that the economy in Russia will collapse? There is no such prospect in the near future. Is there a prospect that some revolutionary situation will occur in Russia that could change the course of the war? No, there is no such prospect on the horizon

Therefore, it is quite difficult for me to believe in such a development of events (That NATO countries will introduce their contingent into Ukraine in any form)

I think this chance is vanishingly small (Answer to the question: 'Will Boris Nadezhdin be allowed to participate in the elections?')

I can truly believe that the question of lifting the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia is a matter of the next year or two; everything is heading in that direction. It will first be tested on some 'traitors, collaborators of Ukraine', and then it will start to trickle down

Putin has bitten off more than he can chew with Ukraine... I consider the option of breaking through a corridor to Kaliningrad through Poland to be absurd. It is impossible to believe in this in the coming decades (Response to the remark: 'Does Putin have enough of his geopolitical madness to break through a corridor to the Kaliningrad region?')

He will be in prison... until Vladimir Putin dies, or God forbid, Alexei Navalny himself dies, because he will be in prison for a long time

No free trade with the thesis that Argentina will now cut trade relations with Brazil and China... I don't think he will implement any of this (Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China)

I estimate Javier's chances of winning at about 20 percent (About Javier Milei's chances of winning the presidential elections in Argentina)

I think Ron DeSantis would be an absolutely ideal vice president... I also think it's unlikely (Ron DeSantis is unlikely to be vice president in the event of Trump's victory)

YouTube will be blocked in Russia within the next year. I have no doubt about that

In the end, I believe that this war will end within 20 years. God willing, it will be sooner

Late-stage, senile Putin - yes. Does this mean it's the end for Putin - no. Because Putin is more than just one person; he is more than himself. And the obligations that converge on his personality will keep him afloat, I believe, for quite a while (Response to the remark: 'Maybe this is already that late-stage, senile Putin who has 5 minutes left, so to speak')

I think this is unlikely (The response to the remark: 'Since in Russian rhetoric, Britain is the main enemy... perhaps the nuclear strike that everyone fears will not be on Kyiv, but literally on London')

It is expected that in this speech he will announce referendums... and likely declare partial mobilization (Putin)

There is already confidence that there will be no referendums (Referendums on the annexation to Russia of several occupied regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions)

And the question that is on the agenda, and I still think that this will not happen, is whether Putin will manage to push for the launch of Nord Stream 2

Apparently, the United States has backed down, and Pelosi will not fly to Taiwan

They will not dare to carry out the punishment (The Russian authorities will not dare to execute the captured Britons)

If Putin gets bogged down in this war, conscription will begin... there will be a mobilization