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Ranking Predictions Authors

Andrey Piontkovsky

Political expert, mathematician (Russia)


Predictions
62
Verified
39
Came true
38%
Rating
4.57

New Awaiting Verified

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I predict the war will end in two months (The war in Ukraine)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Neither Merz nor Cramer has called and never will call Putin (By "Cramer," it likely means Keir Starmer)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I can say with confidence that in the coming days, Erdogan and Aliyev will make a statement expressing concern for the safety of the 30 million Azerbaijani population in this chaotic situation

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Israel is counting on a long timeframe — up to two weeks. Of course, in one form or another, either the physical elimination of these ayatollahs or something else. I believe the regime in Iran will change within those two weeks

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel (He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel.")

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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A very important question will be preliminarily decided in Washington: Will the United States sell its weapons to European allies? I believe it will. Trump won’t be able to stand against the entire political establishment

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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When the offensive fails—he hasn’t taken either Kramatorsk or Sloviansk, and never will—the Coalition of Will, of which Ukraine is a member, will face the question: what to do next? (The Russian army will never take Sloviansk or Kramatorsk)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward (Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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If the defeat in the midterm elections is crushing, then he won’t make it to the end of the term (In response to the question: "In your opinion, will Trump serve out his full term?")

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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In early February, Trump will be forced to acknowledge that he does not, and cannot, have a peace plan for a freeze supported by both Ukraine and Russia. This is already evident

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I assure you, the crazy Tulsi Gabbard won’t make it through the nomination either

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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One Israeli strike on Iran will follow within a few days, I believe, to ensure everything is prepared. It will lead to a tectonic shift in the Middle East

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I am now for the first time today confident that Harris will win the elections

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The primaries will take place, they will unanimously choose Biden, and in August he will ceremoniously hand over his votes to the governor of California

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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A week for the attempt to free the hostages. Two weeks for the complete elimination of Hamas. And the fourth week – well, to address the issue with the sponsors... a month (Regarding the timeline of Israel's war against Hamas)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The most important event today is the American aircraft carrier group... This means that Hezbollah will not act (Against Israel)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I don't think Putin will go to Turkey (In August 2023. What Erdogan announced)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I think that the first city to be liberated will be Bakhmut (Ukraine will liberate Bakhmut first)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The next Minister of Defense will be Surovikin

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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No, it won't survive (Answer to the question: "Will the Putin regime last until then?" (until July 1, 2023))

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I am sure that there will be no parade on May 9 (In Moscow)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I assure you, Iran's nuclear potential will be destroyed this year

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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He will not be arrested. He may be taken in handcuffs to the judge and placed under house arrest (About Donald Trump in the near future)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I will risk being wrong in my predictions again. I somehow doubt that Xi will come to Moscow on March 21

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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My prediction is that we will receive this in January (The U.S. or the British will provide Ukraine with tanks or long-range missiles in January 2023)

Almost came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The Iranian mullahs will probably leave the political arena even before Putin

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I am confident that the British will do this to show who the true leader of the free world is and the real defender of Ukraine (They will provide Ukraine with long-range weapons)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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We know that Prigozhin is a scoundrel, a criminal, a war criminal, and will be executed (Evgeniy Prigozhin will be executed)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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We all understand that Yashin will not serve 8 and a half years

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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We will see him... Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma... and But will follow the same path (Viktor Bout will become a member of the State Duma of the Russian Federation)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Most likely, in a week or two, when the ground freezes, the offensive of the Ukrainian troops will begin

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Both Skabeeva and Simonyansha will definitely be sent, if not to The Hague, then to Mariupol (Russian TV hosts Olga Skabeeva and Margarita Simonyan will be tried)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Final. Brazil vs. France, of course (FIFA World Cup 2022)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Half of the Belarusian army will switch sides on the first day (If Belarus enters the war)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I think that in the coming days we will see one of two events: either Putin will force Lukashenko to send his troops to Ukraine, or he will be removed from power

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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This was his last summit (The 2022 G20 summit for Putin)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Crimea is likely to be liberated sooner than Donbas

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Nothing will change in the support for Ukraine (The victory of the Republicans in the U.S. elections)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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He will never be nominated for Republican president again (Donald Trump)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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They could really win the elections... in the best-case scenario for the Republicans, there will be a majority of ten people from the Republicans

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I will take the risk to make a prediction... and we will see Leopard tanks (Germany will transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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From a military point of view, the surrender of Kherson is inevitable (Russia will leave Kherson)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I don't think he will come (Putin at the G20 in 2022)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Removal after the liberation of Kherson. The removal of Putin from power... they will remove him with the wording: "Comrade Putin is ill, he cannot fulfill his duties, and he is transferring his responsibilities to the collective body of the Security Council"

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The capture of Kherson... this is the end of the war, this is victory, this is the collapse of the front and the entire Putin system (If Ukraine deoccupies Kherson)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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These stupid restrictions... so that they don't strike Russian territory with their long-range missiles... I am sure that all restrictions will be lifted (Restrictions for Ukraine)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The CSTO certainly won't lift a finger (Regarding the military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in September 2022)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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He will never go to Moscow (Kadyrov will not be appointed to a new position in Moscow)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran (Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Well, either in the last days of October 2022 or in the summer of 2023 (Answer to the question: "When will the war between Russia and Ukraine end?")

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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The Crimean Bridge is being destroyed, Kherson is being liberated. After that, of course, Putin will be removed from power

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I think that a preliminary step towards an offensive on Kherson will be a strike on the Crimean Bridge (Ukraine will first strike the Crimean Bridge and then begin the de-occupation of the Kherson region)

Completely came true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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Ukraine will never agree to this (To capitulation due to pressure from partners over the threat of the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I still believe that this will not happen (Destruction by explosion of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant)

Awaiting results

Andrey Piontkovsky

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As for the missiles with a range of 300... they will be transferred in the near future regardless (About the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine by the Americans)

Did not come true

Andrey Piontkovsky

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I know that Erdogan will demand his price... he will demand that Putin withdraw from Syria... And Putin will abandon Assad

Completely came true