screenshot

Right now, there is a vote underway for which object will appear on the new 500-ruble Russian banknote. And Mount Elbrus is competing with Grozny-City. I think Grozny-City will win the vote

Well, perhaps some very nominal figure, like Zhoga—meaning a 'desk veteran' who hasn't seen much fighting and clearly understands the party line. Naturally, no veterans of the Special Military Operation will be allowed into positions of power. The Kremlin would view them more as a dangerous, destructive force (In response to the question: "Will any SMO veteran be featured as one of the main driving forces in the upcoming campaign?")

The fates of the AfD and the National Rally are fundamentally different—the AfD will not be in power

They won't ban Telegram. I think they'll ban WhatsApp, but not Telegram. There are just so many high-value clients on Telegram (In Russia)

I've become convinced that a probable year for an invasion of Taiwan used to be considered 2027. But now, I think it will be 2029 at the earliest. This is because it shouldn't happen while Trump is in office, so he can say, "This war wouldn't have happened on my watch."

I think Europe will come to deregulating artificial intelligence now, simply because otherwise it won't be able to effectively prepare for war with the Russian Federation

It is well known that Putin will not lift the moratorium on the death penalty. Because the death penalty in modern Russia has been outsourced. If someone needs to be executed, it is not the state, the courts, or the investigators who handle it, but specially trained individuals

I'm sure there will be no human settlement on Mars... A robot base is a more realistic scenario

Erdogan is clearly working on the problem of staying in power forever. How he plans to do this legally is already clear. He said so yesterday. He stated that Turkey urgently needs a new constitution. This means that a new constitution will be adopted within the next two years, and there will be a “reset” — allowing him to run for office again in 2028 (The term “reset” was widely used in Russia as a mechanism for constitutional change that allowed Putin to remain president starting in 2024 due to the implementation of the revised constitution)

The negotiations on May 15 are expected to fall through, since Putin will not attend talks with Zelensky

No, I don’t think anything will happen (In response to the question: "Will anything happen during the parade on May 9, or not?" — referring to possible Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and the May 9 parade)

I still believe that two major figures dominate the political stage — Zelensky and Valerii Fedorovych Zaluzhnyi. And only one of them, not both, will run for president

Direct negotiations can only begin under a ceasefire (Between Russia and Ukraine)

And I think that the militarization of Europe — the increase in defense spending, if not up to 5% of GDP, then at least to 3.5% — will lead to certain shifts in this area, particularly to an increase in the retirement age

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son

I believe there will be a certain degree of distancing now, but not total, not fatal, because the set of arguments in favor of their alliance hasn’t been exhausted yet. They will move closer or further apart depending on how useful or harmful Trump considers Musk to be at any given moment

Ramzan Akhmatovich has long been building backup airfields in the territories of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf... But I don't think he plans to relocate there for the sake of his own security

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution

It seems that in 2025, Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords, and this, in itself, will become a key guarantee of peace in the Middle East

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most

There will be no complete ban on abortions, in my opinion—knock on wood, I hope I don’t jinx it. Because, knowing Vladimir Vladimirovich’s psychology, we understand that he is a cautious person in this regard. He will not take measures that would be extremely unpopular among broad segments of his own electorate, especially among female voters. Therefore, any abortion restrictions will be very moderate

In practice, there will be a Korean scenario with a freezing of hostilities along the front line, as I see no alternatives to this (Speaking about the war in Ukraine)

Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov is directly a protégé of the Kovalchuks. Whether he is a popular governor or not, whether he fulfills his duties or not, is completely irrelevant. He suits the Kovalchuks. And as long as that’s the case, which is likely to remain so forever, he will remain the governor of Saint Petersburg

In 2025, the presidential election will take place. It will happen one way or another because it’s no longer possible to delay it further (In Ukraine)

I believe that by Trump’s inauguration, and as a gift for the inauguration, the war in Lebanon—Israel’s war with Hezbollah—will be concluded

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity

I think that Maia Sandu will remain president. But this victory cannot be considered convincing

I think the war will stop in 2025. This isn't about my ability to predict, but rather based on an analysis of the resources available to each side. These resources are depleting, and the war will have to be stopped one way or another

Absolutely. Because that’s a way to shield himself from the future (In response to the remark: "As long as Putin is in power, will there be the war?")

Permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons of Euro-Atlantic origin... I believe that this permission will be granted, that’s my prediction. Perhaps in a more limited, compromise form—allowing strikes with British-American Storm Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles, but not with American ATACMS (Permission for Ukraine)

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is most likely to be the Social Democratic Party's candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections, replacing Olaf Scholz

Yes, to local uprisings, especially in a social context, but not to a nationwide rebellion. The regime, in this sense, is quite resilient, including from the perspective of the law enforcement apparatus (Answer to the question: "Well, is there, in your opinion, purely theoretically, something that could lead to a popular uprising?" (In Russia))

I think that America will grant permission to use British and French missiles, namely Storm Shadow and Scalp, while refraining from using ATACMS (Permission for Ukraine to strike with this weapon on the territory of Russia)

I think that, since Biden is currently president and the Democrats are in power, they will do everything they can to prevent unrest in advance. Back then, the unrest was partly fueled by the fact that the sitting president, Trump, was relatively lenient towards it. Even if he didn’t openly support it, he at least stirred the pot (Referring to possible unrest that could occur after the U.S. presidential elections)

A very unpopular and very unprofitable decision for Putin, he will have to go for a new partial mobilization if the war cannot be stopped in the next month

He can remain in France, where he is not in any danger in the coming years while the judicial investigation is ongoing (Pavel Durov)

I believe that the persecution of Telegram is not over. It is just beginning

I think that in the end, Kommersant will end up with the Kovalchuks. This will happen sooner rather than later

For some reason, everyone has decided that they are going to disable Telegram specifically. But it seems to me that they are not going to disable Telegram, or at least it won't be the first one to be targeted (In Russia)

It seems that exercises on disabling VPNs have just taken place... I think this is the next step (VPNs will be blocked in Russia)

Yes, of course (Will the mobilization be accompanied by measures such as border closures? (Second mobilization in Russia))

It seems that the terrorist attack in Crocus will be used by the Kremlin to lift the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia

Elon Musk will not join Trump's administration (If Trump wins the election)

But based on indirect signs, it seems to me that the matter will not reach the registration of Boris Borisovich (About Boris Nadezhdin)

He will not go to prison (Donald Trump (presumably before the elections))

I believe that the deal will be extended (Grain deal)

In the coming weeks, there is likely to be no 'major' offensive (Regarding Russia's 'big' offensive)

But he will not remove Sergei Shoigu, for example... or Gerasimov in the near future (Putin)

But of course, this will eventually happen, if not today, then tomorrow (The introduction of a price cap on Russian gas)

Dozhd will be relocated to a more loyal country (The Dozhd TV channel (TV Rain))

In my opinion, there will not be a second wave of mobilization in Russia as a formally organized event (Regarding the second wave of mobilization)

The offensive on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus is a bluff

The Russian Federation cannot remain in its current form... I give this regime 3-4 years

In the end, it’s heading toward their confiscation (Referring to the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets)

I don't think it will work (To overthrow Maia Sandu)

No, I think that this time she won't return to Russia... she won't be in Russia in the foreseeable future (Ksenia Sobchak)

Everything is being prepared for the surrender of Kherson (Russia will leave Kherson)

I have no doubt that the US and its allies will deliver a powerful strike on Russian territory (In response to the question: "What will happen next if Russia does use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?")

The Maidan seems to me the least likely scenario... our people are not ready to take to the streets and overthrow the government (Answer to the question: 'What is the likelihood of a Maidan in Russia?' (The likelihood of a large popular protest))

I don't think the deep state in America will allow him to run in the elections (About Trump)

There will not be a global nuclear conflict

The war will last until spring (Until spring 2023)

Vladimir Vladimirovich will not succeed in defeating the American-centric world (About Putin)

No, I don't think Biden will do that (To recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism)

And from the perspective of a potential march on Odesa, if it happens, it will not happen in the near future (About the march of Russian troops on Odesa)

It is clear that no country in the CSTO, except for Belarus, will participate in any aggression against Ukraine; this is out of the question

Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of Russia, who, according to some reports, is out of favor with Putin, which, however, does not mean his quick resignation

The 8th package of sanctions from the European Union... the U.S., the U.K., Japan... will be adopted in September if Russia attempts to annex the occupied territories... and will include a ban on issuing Schengen visas regardless of anything

The probability that the Democrats will lose the upcoming series of elections is quite high

It is zero (About the likelihood of Putin carrying out a special operation on the territory of Georgia and Kazakhstan)

Analyzing the threats of a nuclear explosion at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which, in my opinion, will certainly not happen, my prediction is that nothing like this can occur

I can't really imagine a pair of Joseph Biden and Donald Trump in the final of 2024

The likelihood of this is quite high... it all depends on the situation at the front... under the threat of a successful counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will be postponed (On the likelihood of holding so-called referendums)

There will be trials on the territory of the DPR... and then, when the process is completed and the so-called Nazis from Azov possibly receive death sentences, Vladimir Putin will be able to show the world his unique mercy and pardon someone for an exchange

I don't think there will be a direct exchange of all Azov prisoners for Russian prisoners of war

Therefore, mobilization is doomed to fail... mass mobilization is impossible

The closest associates of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will come to power (After Putin)

The accession will still happen (About the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO)