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I can say for my part that you can have no doubt about the Tomahawks; the question is how effective they will be, when, and how many. As for Tomahawks, this is a more than realistic scenario (The US will transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine)

The war in Ukraine will last for at least another year

I think Iran's acquisition of an atomic bomb is practically inevitable now, sooner or later. Because they will immediately resume their nuclear program—they have already resumed it—and try to achieve it. Whether Pakistan or China helps them, or they accidentally find a car with a nuclear bomb parked in the mountains, that's a secondary matter

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6

Lowering the conscription age and female mobilization are practically inevitable. Tentatively, if things continue this way, it may happen around October–November of this year (Is it true that there will be a female mobilization?)

Recently, there was the largest overnight drone attack on Kyiv — nearly 300 Shaheds. Russian channels claimed, “Just wait — there will be 600 soon, then 1,000.” It won’t happen soon, but eventually, it definitely will. The Shaheds are getting more advanced, harder to shoot down... They’ll terrorize the rear, strike with ballistic missiles, and hit with Shaheds. And when the attacks reach 400–600 Shaheds in a single night — and they definitely will, in six months or a year — things will get very serious. Air defense won’t be able to handle it

I can predict Ukraine’s fate. We are losing badly — within a year, a year and a half, or two (The war in Ukraine)

Don't scare yourself with the Indo-Pakistani conflict. India and Pakistan have fought many times with each other... With a very high probability, this will be a series of border incidents, limited in scope to somewhere in Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed state

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce (In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?")

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances

Remember this tweet.
It contains the rules and outlines of the new world.

Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon.

A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders.
The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China.

Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned).

But that’s not all.

Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf.

The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world

Bitcoin will continue to rise. It is designed as a growing system. If it’s used for partially storing assets of the U.S. national debt, it could reach a million... Ultimately, each Bitcoin is expected to be worth a million

Judging by how things are going, a ceasefire will likely happen on January 25 or around that date... And if no extraordinary factors intervene, it’s highly probable that we’ll see a ceasefire in spring (In response to: "Alexey, what do you think, is a ceasefire possible before May 1?" (between Russia and Ukraine))

I don’t think we will go through with it; I’m a skeptic in this regard. We will continue to escalate and provoke. Since the talks in "Great Yalta" are about reconciliation by the New Year and a ceasefire, I expect some major provocation from our side soon—something intended to disrupt these efforts (He implies that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are being prepared for before the New Year, and that Ukraine will derail them with a provocation)

Russian forces are building up strike groups. They will attack along the entire front, from Zaporizhzhia to Kupiansk. A strategic offensive is being prepared, and it’s a matter of days

In November, there will be major negotiations

One way or another, the basis of the future agreement should be the Istanbul agreements... and in one form or another, they will most likely be implemented

It's almost certain that the same level of aid as before won’t be there. Will there be any aid at all? (In response to the question: "How likely is it that Ukraine will be left without U.S. financial aid at 2024 levels next year?")

I think there will be. Because there are not enough forces and resources (The answer to the question: 'Will there be mobilization in Russia or not?')

They will take Toretsk or encircle it. They will approach Konstantinovka, and there will be a battle for Konstantinovka (Russian troops)

I think they will take Chasiv Yar, and they’ll do it fairly quickly (Referring to Russian forces)

In America, there is an ideological civil war happening. A direct civil war. Whether it will escalate to a hot war, I don't think so. It may lead to clashes... But I don't believe that F-35s will shoot down F-35s; there is no such potential there

And now a new trend has emerged. They have started talking about space. About possible wars in space. I believe this is inevitable in the next 10-15 years

No (Response to the question: "Well, do you think they will ban Telegram?" (In Ukraine))

And the EU and NATO will not accept us... Because the price for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is a war between Russia and the EU and NATO, a large war. They will not go for it

It will take at least 2-3 months (Response to the question: "Alexey, in your opinion, how quickly will the Israeli army deal with Hamas?")

My prediction is bleak. I am confident that with a high probability, we will lose Avdiivka

They will take Tokmak this year (The Ukrainian forces will retake Tokmak in 2024)

We will definitely reach the sea. I give it 99% (The Armed Forces of Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov)

I think that sooner or later, more likely sooner, Orban and his team will resign

And they won't even take Orekhovo (Russian troops)

They will not take Zaporizhzhia (Russian troops)

This is real; moreover, it is inevitable (Regarding the transfer of Patriot systems to Ukraine from the USA)

In my feeling, the Russian Federation will break down as a system in February-March of next year

They will not be able to push us out from the Kreminna-Svatove line

I don't think they will exclude it (Russia from the G20 in 2022)

They will not blow up the dam (Russia will not blow up the Kakhovka dam)

Will they sink the ships? Under the Turkish flag. Protected by the fleet (Judging by the tone, he does not believe that Moscow will sink the ships after the 'exit' from the Grain Deal)

The topic of the dirty bomb will die down (Context: In recent days, Russia has been actively claiming that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty (radioactive) bomb)

As for Johnson — he’s cunning. Right now they’re dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic, the consequences of Brexit, which he voted for and promoted, and the fallout caused by the war. He doesn’t want to deal with any of that. Later, he’ll make a loop and come back (Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom again)

I believe that a similar decision is not far off (Recognition of Ichkeria by Estonia)

They will elevate Surovikin to a hero, and then he will die in an aviation accident or be shot by his wife in a domestic conflict (This is a reference to the fates of Generals Lebed and Rokhlin)

They will hit back at them immediately in a way that will make them regret it; I am 101 percent sure (If Russia uses nuclear weapons)

There will be no civil war (In Russia)

But the Americans will not recognize it (Russia as a sponsor of terrorism)

I think Azerbaijan will achieve its goals (In the conflict with Armenia)

They won't return, that's for sure (Response to the remark: 'Return back to Balakliya.' About the return of Russian troops to Balakliya)

Well, I highly doubt it (Feigin: 'They may still hope to regain some lost territory in a day or two.' He is talking about the possible intentions of the Russian army to regain control of the lost territories in the Kharkiv region)

The end of the year 2022 is officially December 31... but it seems to me that everything will happen earlier than December 31 (Response to the remark: 'CNN, citing U.S. officials, stated that Ukraine plans to regain Kherson by the end of 2022.')

There will be no referendums (No referendums on the annexation of several regions of Ukraine to Russia)

There will definitely be a moment in Russia when there will be a rally of 350,000 people near the Kremlin again

I do not see any protracted war; the maximum I foresee, in the worst-case scenario, is that it will all end by the summer of next year

Therefore, they are unlikely to go for it (About the Iron Curtain in Russia, when leaving Russia will be prohibited)

I don't believe in the execution of the death sentence; to be honest, I don't really believe it. It's most likely blackmail (On the execution of the death sentence for captured Ukrainian servicemen (specifically the Azov fighters))

I don't really believe in some kind of massive strike on civilian targets; on military ones, yes... as always, they will miss and hit civilian ones (About the possible massive shelling of Ukraine by Russian troops on Ukraine's Independence Day)

The pace, scale, and cost of this advance are such that they will not allow for the capture of Bakhmut, Siversk, and other cities... there will be no repeat of the fate of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk

I don't think they will deliberately blow it up (About the possible explosion of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by Russia)

It will be a very unexpected and quick end to the war... within two days (If Putin dies)

I don't believe that they will take these cities, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk; I just don't believe it, not even close

It won't happen (Commenting on the remark: "In an attempt to prevent the start of the de-occupation of Kherson, it will be part of this agreement (the grain deal)")

I don't believe in a ceasefire at all. I just don't believe in any ceasefire whatsoever (About a possible ceasefire during the "grain deal")

This isn’t Hitler; he won’t shoot himself (Referring to Putin)

In order to do anything with Odessa, one must first capture Mykolaiv. These prospects were dashed even at the beginning of the war... Now there are no chances of capturing it at all (Russia will not be able to take Mykolaiv)

Odessa is not threatened at all, I repeat, not at all. In order to do anything with Odessa, one must first capture Mykolaiv. These prospects were dashed even at the beginning of the war... Now there are no chances of capturing it at all... What threatens Odessa? There could be strikes on Odessa with cruise missiles (Russian troops will not storm Odessa)

This is the last success of the Russian army on the territory of Ukraine... a major one, meaning when a city is captured (About Lysychansk)

We'll take it back just as we left it (About Lysychansk)

If our command allows for encirclement there... But I think they won't allow it... They definitely know what they are doing (The command of Ukraine will not allow the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk)

Kharkiv will definitely not be taken; there is no need to worry about that here. The other thing is that they will continue to strike Kharkiv for some time

Absolutely unrealistic (Whether an attack from Belarus on Ukraine is possible)

He will not live for 20 years (Putin)

I don't think so (The response to the question of whether the death sentences of the so-called DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) will be carried out on British citizens)

They definitely will not take Severodonetsk; they will not take the route (The comment refers to the question of whether the Russian troops will capture Severodonetsk by the end of the week (by June 12, 2022))

It does not threaten the Sumy residents on the ground... No Russian troops will go there in the near future (In the Sumy region of Ukraine)

I think they will be persuaded (Hungary and Turkey, to give their approval for Sweden and Finland to join NATO)

I think they should vote (About the vote in the U.S. for $40 billion in aid to Ukraine)

We will make it so that they will leave Kherson on their own

An insane statement... no one will ever sign in Budapest a second time... in any other city, but not in Budapest... they won't sign there, it's impossible. It could even be in Hungary, but in any other city (Regarding a possible meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Budapest)

It's hard to predict how the war will end. What I can say is when the active phase will end. It will end within 2–3 weeks. They will completely lose the ability to advance anywhere with any significant forces (In response to the question: "Will this war end soon? What are your possible scenarios for how the situation could develop?")

They are currently planning to carry out partial mobilization (In Russia)

This is an offensive air operation, the invasion of four Russian armies that they have formed at our borders, the siege of Kyiv, the attempt to encircle the troops in the ATO and the JFO, the breakthrough through the Crimean isthmus, the advance to the Kakhovka Reservoir to supply water to Crimea, the offensive from the territory of Belarus, the creation of new people's republics, sabotage actions, strikes on critical infrastructure, and airborne assaults. This is what a full-scale war looks like. And the probability of it is 99%. 2021-2022 (The answer to the question: "What can be a full-scale war with Russia?")