screenshot

I am absolutely convinced that Königsberg will return to its historical homeland, or become an independent state. But this will only happen after Russia's military defeat

Putin will fly the long, roundabout way, through the Black Sea, through the Mediterranean Sea, through friendly countries... I think he will fly. European politicians have no chance of somehow forcing Trump to back out, and no chance of forcing Orbán to arrest Putin

I think the Russian occupiers have no chance of taking Zaporizhzhia. I'm certain of that

There's a hateful reaction from pro-Kremlin figures, first and foremost for her leaving, for speaking very highly of Dudayev, and for speaking very highly of Gorbachev; for this, there is fierce hatred. Also, the statement that she will never set foot in Russia again. There have been proposals to list her as a foreign agent or an extremist. But I don't think that will happen (Speaking about Alla Pugacheva)

Putin just won't go to Switzerland, he won't (In regards to possible negotiations with Zelensky)

The probability of China stopping its purchase of Russian energy resources is extremely low; I think it's simply zero

To be fair, regarding Russia's much-vaunted 1,000 strikes per day—if they are achieved, and they most likely will be (Russia will be able to launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine simultaneously)

There is Trump, who certainly won't help, won't lift a finger, but he will most likely sell weapons to Ukraine

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen

The Baltic states are undoubtedly a risk zone, but direct aggression will most likely occur only after one version or another of the war against Ukraine has played out. Whether Putin will be in a position to attack anyone after this war — or whether he’ll even still be around — is a rhetorical question, because I don’t have an answer to it (If Putin does attack the Baltic states, it will be after the war against Ukraine is over)

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN

I have not the slightest doubt that after Trump's meeting with Putin, he will simply adopt Putin's plan and program exactly as it is. I have absolutely no doubt about this

Elections in Germany are coming up, and most likely Merz will win, as he is undoubtedly much more decisive

The most intense reaction was to the revocation of birthright citizenship. When Trump signed this order, reports in the press claim he called birthright citizenship "ridiculous." I believe the likelihood of this order being repealed is close to 100%

I think none of Trump’s rhetoric—neither the annexation of Canada, the occupation of Greenland, nor even the annexation of the Panama Canal—will be realized

I think that the social credit systems being implemented in China—I am firmly convinced that they won’t take root here (In Russia)

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky

It’s obvious to us that Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace. (Peace between Russia and Ukraine) (Peace between Russia and Ukraine)

But what I see now leads me to assume that the war will not end in 2025, nor will it end in 2026 (The war in Ukraine)

Putin’s obvious desire to regain control over the Kursk region before Trump’s inauguration is unlikely to succeed

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong (Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia)

I think there will most likely be a call or some kind of conversation, or perhaps even a meeting... between Trump and Putin before the inauguration

So it’s most likely that this decision, if it is made—and I think it will be—will be made in February of next year (Talking about U.S. authorization for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles)

Lukashenko, a man who has been in power for 30 years... I am firmly convinced that he will outlast Putin. Because, in terms of maneuvering skills—being practically in Putin’s back pocket, 1000 percent dependent on him—he still manages to create room to maneuver for himself

I believe that, given Putin currently has four sources for replenishing cannon fodder, there’s no need for mobilization. I think it’s unlikely to happen. Never say never—of course, it could occur—but I don’t see it happening at the moment. For Putin, mobilization is a negative move; it creates tension

It’s fairly obvious that, like Putin, Lukashenko will only leave his throne upon physical death. For both Putin and Lukashenko, losing power is essentially equivalent to physical death or a long prison sentence

I am absolutely convinced that Tomahawks will eventually be on combat duty in the Armed Forces of Ukraine

I have never seen Yulia Navalnaya as a politician, and I don't think she has any chance of becoming one

All these dreams and fantasies about turning BRICS into a military-political alliance... I can try to be absolutely categorical. I believe this idea will never materialize. I just can't imagine a military-political alliance between, say, India and China; the contradictions between them are simply too strong

Well, it’s definitely moving in that direction. China is undoubtedly trying to do it. But in the end, it won't succeed (In response to the question: "China wants to build a new bipolar world. Will the Chinese leader be able to achieve this?")

I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will become a member of NATO

I think that, in the end, Ukraine will move towards developing its own nuclear weapons

After being elected, it's not customary for American presidents to take any significant actions that lead to specific consequences. So, the likelihood of any serious moves from Biden was already low, and now it’s almost approaching zero

I think that in this case, wishful thinking is being mistaken for reality. The war will not end in 2025, even if something unlikely happens and all the points of the victory plan are fulfilled (Referring to the victory plan that Zelensky presented on October 16, 2024)

It’s clear that Biden won’t be visiting Europe before the end of his term. At least, the likelihood of that happening is close to zero

Without Putin, Kadyrov will be a dead man, and quite quickly at that

Most likely, this conflict will gradually subside... I think this situation will slowly die down (Referring to the recent situation where Kadyrov declared blood vengeance)

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine (If he becomes president)

Most likely, this will happen today, so I will cautiously say that this sensational news will occur. Today, Antony Blinken is arriving in Kyiv (The USA will allow Ukraine to use American long-range weapons to strike at Russia)

I highly doubt that anything threatens Gerasimov. I would be very surprised if he is punished (Due to the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Kursk region of Russia)

I don't think that Arestovych has a chance to return to Ukrainian politics

The war will not end this year

Most likely... they will return an urn with the ashes (Context: After Alexei Navalny's death, his body is not being released to relatives for a long time)

This is my prediction: he will not be allowed... My prediction is that it is most likely that Nadezhdin will be removed from the race (Boris Nadezhdin will not be allowed to participate in the presidential elections)

What will happen? There is an opinion that there will definitely be some turmoil in the Caucasus... I think that none of this will happen (In the event of Ramzan Kadyrov's death)

Putin will not release Navalny... there are two people that Putin will not let go. I understand that I could be wrong, but nonetheless, I have been following this for a long time. These are two personal enemies of Putin: Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza

Girkin is likely not very dangerous. Of course, no one will release him because he possesses unpleasant information. He is not the main one responsible for the destruction of the Malaysian Boeing

There is no chance that any of the Western leaders will say a word for Kara-Murza and that he will be freed - this is very unlikely... A swap is extremely unlikely. People like him are not exchanged. Neither Navalny, nor Kara-Murza, nor Yashin

I am not sure that he will be tried in The Hague; they can manage on their own (Lukashenko)

The probability of being able to show the capture of Bakhmut is zero (By Russian troops)

He is unlikely to expect that due to his attacks, Putin will remove Beglov. This is out of the question... Beglov is quite satisfactory to Putin. And of course, under such pressure, Beglov will never be dismissed... Under no circumstances will Prigozhin's actions achieve success

Still, most likely, the Republican Party will not nominate Trump (For the 2024 U.S. presidential election)

Putin will not be a defendant at the international tribunal. He will be killed much earlier

Plus, the governors, who undoubtedly, without a doubt, each dream of becoming the head of an independent state. There is not a single Russian governor who does not dream of becoming the head of an independent state. And as soon as the Putin regime starts to crack, they will try to realize their dream

Winter will not be a respite. If possible, they will try to advance in winter as well (Russian troops)

As for the removal of Lukashenko, I find this version much less likely... I don't think Putin will go for Lukashenko's removal

And he will continue the mobilization... and then in December, it’s absolutely clear that another round of mobilization will begin

Russia will disappear as a serious player in the Middle East after some time

I don't think that Prigozhin, like Kadyrov, is capable of taking any serious political position in present-day Russia... It is impossible to imagine that they would become some kind of ministers or head a federal structure

I believe that Putin's trip to Bali is extremely unlikely (At the G20)

Putin is no longer in a position to disrupt this grain deal... the grain deal will take place without Putin, I hope for that

The likelihood that she will receive it is extremely low. I think that Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons either, although it could create them itself (Poland and Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons)

I am not sure that there will be very fierce street battles... a significant number of occupiers will prefer to leave... Kherson is likely to be de-occupied in the coming days

The USA will provide Ukraine with long-range artillery. Will it be long-range HIMARS or Tomahawks

I can hardly imagine that Zelensky will take any other position (About the goal of pushing the enemy back to the borders of 1991)

Negotiations? No one will go to the negotiating table with him. Ukraine will not engage in negotiations with him, which is quite obvious, until he withdraws his troops... to the 1991 (To the 1991 borders)

There is no doubt that this person will not stop the war. There is no doubt that he will go all the way (Putin)

Recently, Turchak stated that the referendums will be postponed to November 4, which means that they will not take place

I think that Kadyrov will not leave (Commenting on Kadyrov's statement that he has been sitting in his position for too long)

As for the Luhansk region, the probability that this referendum will be held is quite high

The option in which this regime will be destroyed and the war will end because the Russians will rise up does not exist. We just need to get rid of these illusions

There are no chances that a complete fuel energy embargo will be imposed in the foreseeable future, even in relation to the West

I am very afraid that they will give it (Visa for Lavrov to participate in the UN General Assembly)

Despite the predictions that it will end this year, I think that this will not happen (About the end of the war in Ukraine)

I think this will end very soon (That the Russian language is an official language of the UN)

I am absolutely convinced that after the war, after Ukraine's victory, radical changes will occur in the UN. Either it will be reformed, or, more likely, another organization will be created alongside it, where there will be no veto power and no Russia

For Putin, any transfer of power simply means physical death, just physical death

I think that Russia after Putin simply will not remain as a unified state within the borders it currently occupies... the probability of this is very high, not one hundred percent, but high

In general, the idea that Putin will pass power to someone, I believe the probability of such an event is also zero... Putin will not transfer power

Regarding the second question about him passing his throne to his daughter, I think the probability of such an event is zero; it is not close to zero, it is simply zero (About Putin transferring power to his daughter)

It's pointless. It's understood that YouTube is just a fraction of political information... so this will not happen (About the possible blocking of YouTube in Russia)