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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
444
Predictions
3106
Verified
1147
Came true
65%
Complex
57%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

Look at Venezuela, it's been thrown into the mix. Nothing will happen... because to do that, one would have to enter into a real, prolonged conflict with an unpredictable outcome. And he's geared for perpetual victory, Trump is.
Expected
#Venezuela
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

Under Putin, this law will be neither abolished nor softened, from my point of view. In response to the question: "What are the chances that this law will be repealed or at least modified?" (The law on foreign agents in Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

If peace is achieved, in the format that we can currently imagine, then Crimea will certainly be recognized as Russian. I simply don't see how the Kremlin could concede this on the part of the Americans.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I'm betting on Kashevarova. It's time to declare her a foreign agent. In response to the question: "Who is next among the pro-government people, what's your forecast?" (Referring to who will be declared a foreign agent next in Russia)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Anatoly Wasserman

Against this backdrop, only a reckless individual like Netanyahu could escalate things to direct strikes on Iran. He has no other way out. He has headed the government for many years with several interruptions, and during that time, he managed to cause so much trouble that in the event of another dismissal, he will inevitably face an investigation, and then most likely a trial.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

As long as Putin is alive, this war cannot end. It doesn't matter what Trump says, it doesn't matter what Zelensky signs. Putin needs the whole of Ukraine. And if he gets all of it, of course he won't stop there.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

I think that this meeting will take place someday. At some point, we will see Putin and Zelensky in the same room. In response to the question: "How expedient and realistic do you see a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Putin in the near future?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

We will also see many countries joining NATO, and many forces moving closer to the Russian border.
Expected
#NATO #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

A full takeover of Gaza, a full annexation of Gaza will happen, and Hamas will cease to exist.
Expected
#Gaza #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Boris Zimin

Vladimir Putin will most likely be buried with honors. He's doing just fine.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Our president is thinking about the elections, and he's thinking about them too early, and he thinks he has a chance to be re-elected. And because he is thinking not about the war, but about the elections, he will lose the elections regardless, if he lives to see them. Speaking about Zelensky.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

This is a consistent policy of the Israeli state—to grant asylum to all Jews regardless of the reason they are compelled to repatriate. So of course Israel will protect Zelensky if he makes that decision.
Expected
#Israel #Zelensky
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The norms of international relations are becoming a thing of the past. The International Court of Justice has lost all authority before our very eyes. I think it's unlikely that we will ever regard it as a serious force.
Expected
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The fates of the AfD and the National Rally are fundamentally different—the AfD will not be in power.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So, Mikheil Saakashvili, by being in prison... this plays the important role that there are absolutely no doubts about who is in power in Georgia. I know that efforts, both through negotiations and other means, are being made and are continuing for his release, but my prediction is that they will not release him.
Expected
#Georgia
ru → en

Ekaterina Margolis

De Luca failed on both fronts, facing sharp criticism within Italy. He is unlikely to be elected for a third term as governor of Campania. Campania is a region in Italy.
Expected
#Italy #Elections
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I can predict that the state of Syria will most likely no longer exist. It will be divided, to some extent, between Turkey and, perhaps, chunks of Syria, the Alawites, and the territory that Israel controls.
Expected
#Syria #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I'm completely confident that at some point, Putin will try to strike the Baltic states. I believe he has many plans drawn up regarding Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Of course, he is unlikely to go for Finland, given his past bad experience and the fact that the Finns are more prepared to defend their country.
Expected
#Russia #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #Finland #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I am absolutely confident, and you will see, it won't be long to wait. Three things will become completely unacceptable in the world after this war. Prisons will disappear from the world as the main instrument of the enslavement of the people. Nationalists will disappear from the world, because any nationalism, at its extreme, leads to Nazism. And borders will disappear from the world. After the war in Ukraine.
Expected
ru → en

Alfred Koch

They won't seize it. It will agree to some kind of slow integration on its own, like Hong Kong. In response to the comment: "If Taiwan is captured..."
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

North Korea's air force is incredibly weak, it's practically nonexistent. In the event of a war with South Korea, their air force would be destroyed within the first few hours.
Expected
#North Korea #South Korea
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The German Chancellor stated that Russia must pay 500 billion euros to Ukraine. And then Russia can ask for the 200 billion euros frozen in the EU to be returned to them. Hmm. By the way, in that case, they wouldn't give back the 200 billion euros for anything. They'd find something to fault.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #Germany #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Petrov

Chinese won't displace English... Unless, of course, the Chinese switch to Latin script, which they won't.
Expected
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

And Zelensky also cares about security. He understands that stopping the war means immediate elections, immediate removal of this group from power, and the start of investigations into this group's activities after the elections.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

First, Putin says, recognize these territories and give me guarantees, and then I'll be ready to stop the hot phase of the war. He understands that if the war stops now along this line, it will lead to endless negotiations that will last decades and certainly won't result in the recognition of occupied territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

If the war doesn't stop, it will lead to the removal of democratic power in Ukraine and catastrophically increase the chances of Putin's supporters coming to power.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think so. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia is facing another Chechen war?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think no, they likely won't attack. The US will certainly get involved. Answer to the question: "Do you think China will attack Taiwan?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Putin also has an awarded weapon, but he'll never have the guts to make the right choice. Meaning, Putin won't shoot himself.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Her criminal case definitely awaits her. Answer to the question: "Where do you see Elvira Nabiullina after some time?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Lucy Grin

This is a rehearsal for a speech in Nuremberg: "we have nothing to do with this, we are journalists." Mark my words, remember this broadcast. The speech will be identical. Kiselev... Dmitry Kiselev will be tried analogously to the Nuremberg trials.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I think Iran's acquisition of an atomic bomb is practically inevitable now, sooner or later. Because they will immediately resume their nuclear program—they have already resumed it—and try to achieve it. Whether Pakistan or China helps them, or they accidentally find a car with a nuclear bomb parked in the mountains, that's a secondary matter.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Andrey Yakovlev

Russia isn't going anywhere, regardless. All these expectations from some colleagues that Russia will collapse or disappear are deeply naive. There will be no collapse of Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

How many more years will Putin need to achieve his goals? Putin's goals are unclear, so it's unknown. But generally, the goal that Putin is truly striving for—the destruction of Ukraine—I think he won't have enough years; that is, he will die sooner.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Putin is absolutely sick, we see that. Completely unhinged. Totally obsessed with placing the foot of the last surviving Russian soldier somewhere on the border between Ukraine and Poland, no matter the cost, no matter the human losses, no matter the reputational damage to Russia on the international stage. That will never happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Poland
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

They all talk about the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a given… It seems to me that if they go through with it, it will guarantee the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Moreover, from Gaza (as we know, Trump has already said he reached an agreement with Egypt) at least half the population will be evacuated—and eventually all of them. Israel will not accept a single migrant; those still there—indigenous Palestinians—will be expelled from the territory.
Expected
#Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Andrei Bogdanov

Since Freemasonry is quite a conservative organization, this process is taking a long time. Someday, women will probably be admitted. But my prediction is that it will be like in our pre-revolutionary schools — separate classes for girls and boys, but within the same gymnasium. Likewise, there will be an à la unified Grand Lodge of some country, consisting of both a male and a female Grand Lodge.
Expected
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It is well known that Putin will not lift the moratorium on the death penalty. Because the death penalty in modern Russia has been outsourced. If someone needs to be executed, it is not the state, the courts, or the investigators who handle it, but specially trained individuals.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that once Netanyahu is brought before the bench of defendants in Israel—as he inevitably will be—many aspects of the October 7 events will become known following the interrogations of Netanyahu and his associates.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Putin

Now a few important—very important—words for those who might be tempted to interfere in what is happening. Whoever tries to hinder us, and especially to create threats for our country, for our people, must know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences you have never faced in your history.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

North Korea: Apparently, there's a meme going around showing the North Korean Führer looking sad — everyone is bombing everyone else, and he wasn’t invited. Of course, he could attack South Korea, but then he would be killed, and he doesn't want that.
Expected
#North Korea #South Korea
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

In a nuclear war against NATO, I proceed from the assumption that it will happen. That it will be a war between NATO and Russia. Putin will lose. Russia will cease to exist.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #NATO #Putin
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I think that as long as Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine — and it has no chance of winning — it won’t attack anyone else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think Yavlinsky isn’t as irritating; he’s less visible on the local level — it’s Moscow, not Pskov. Yavlinsky seems to be less media-present than Shlosberg. He makes some strange statements once every six months, and that’s it. In this sense, I think he doesn’t face any particular risks. Yavlinsky won’t be arrested like Shlosberg.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Kynev

The story with Shlosberg is very sad and tragic. The case will end in imprisonment, although it's strange how a call for peace can be considered “discrediting the armed forces.”
Expected
#Russia
ru → en