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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
438
Predictions
2953
Verified
1068
Came true
65%
Complex
55%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yuri Felshtinsky

Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

They all talk about the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a given… It seems to me that if they go through with it, it will guarantee the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Moreover, from Gaza (as we know, Trump has already said he reached an agreement with Egypt) at least half the population will be evacuated—and eventually all of them. Israel will not accept a single migrant; those still there—indigenous Palestinians—will be expelled from the territory.
Expected
#Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Andrei Bogdanov

Since Freemasonry is quite a conservative organization, this process is taking a long time. Someday, women will probably be admitted. But my prediction is that it will be like in our pre-revolutionary schools — separate classes for girls and boys, but within the same gymnasium. Likewise, there will be an à la unified Grand Lodge of some country, consisting of both a male and a female Grand Lodge.
Expected
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It is well known that Putin will not lift the moratorium on the death penalty. Because the death penalty in modern Russia has been outsourced. If someone needs to be executed, it is not the state, the courts, or the investigators who handle it, but specially trained individuals.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that once Netanyahu is brought before the bench of defendants in Israel—as he inevitably will be—many aspects of the October 7 events will become known following the interrogations of Netanyahu and his associates.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Putin

Now a few important—very important—words for those who might be tempted to interfere in what is happening. Whoever tries to hinder us, and especially to create threats for our country, for our people, must know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences you have never faced in your history.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

North Korea: Apparently, there's a meme going around showing the North Korean Führer looking sad — everyone is bombing everyone else, and he wasn’t invited. Of course, he could attack South Korea, but then he would be killed, and he doesn't want that.
Expected
#North Korea #South Korea
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

In a nuclear war against NATO, I proceed from the assumption that it will happen. That it will be a war between NATO and Russia. Putin will lose. Russia will cease to exist.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #NATO #Putin
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I think that as long as Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine — and it has no chance of winning — it won’t attack anyone else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think Yavlinsky isn’t as irritating; he’s less visible on the local level — it’s Moscow, not Pskov. Yavlinsky seems to be less media-present than Shlosberg. He makes some strange statements once every six months, and that’s it. In this sense, I think he doesn’t face any particular risks. Yavlinsky won’t be arrested like Shlosberg.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Kynev

The story with Shlosberg is very sad and tragic. The case will end in imprisonment, although it's strange how a call for peace can be considered “discrediting the armed forces.”
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I don't have the feeling of a triumphant march on Sumy. The attempt to plug these gaps with convicts also turned out to be less than absolute, because the convicts, as the Prigozhin march showed, are not the most reliable followers. I think there will be a mobilization. There will be another mobilization in Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, they can't. Change from the bottom cannot happen. These hopes are illusory. Response to the question: "Can change come from the bottom in Russia?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

We will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles. Please write down what I said, dear friends. What's the date today? June 8th? So, on June 8th I said that we will strike Moscow with our ballistic missiles. Please write it down. Ukraine will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Gozman

In the event of a defeat, Russia — in its current form — will, of course, cease to exist... The emergence of several state or proto-state entities on our present territory is highly likely.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

Sooner or later — we don't know when — one can be certain that nuclear technologies, technologies for producing nuclear weapons, and the weapons themselves will spread among states that are capable of producing them, maintaining them, using them, and that are interested in doing so.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Yes, it will be independent, of course, yes. In response to the statement: "The Chechen Republic will be independent."
Expected
ru → en

Akhmed Zakayev

The Chechen Republic will be independent.
Expected
ru → en

Akhmed Zakayev

Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is inevitable, and as a consequence, so are the internal processes within Russia itself — of transformation, dismantling, disintegration, or the creation of a new state entity.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

The fundamental problem of Russian society is infantilism. And it is this infantilism that Putin is now trying to combat through mobilization — but this struggle will end in the federalization or even confederalization of Russia. Unfortunately, Putin is in the process of breaking the country apart even further. The stages of imperial collapse that could have been completed in 1991 — and which might have led to a consolidation across the Russian lands resembling that of modern European nations — have now, unfortunately, been brought by Putin to a point beyond which a new collapse, or the continuation of the existing one, is in my view almost inevitable — in fact, 100% inevitable.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In the end, Ukraine — this is my prediction, and I may be wrong — I believe it will change its non-nuclear status. That’s my forecast, a long-term prediction. Because there’s no other way out.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

After the strike on Russian airbases, Russia probably has, at most, 50 operational carriers left, including Tu-160 bombers — which the Russians are unlikely to risk using in the war against Ukraine. Well, it's hard to say.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

If someone said to me, "Michael, place a bet — who will win, Trump or Musk?" I’d say, of course, Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Years go by, and, hypothetically speaking, whose statue would stand in a Moscow square? I don't believe it would be Putin's.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

You are on Michael Nacke’s channel... support the channel financially by purchasing nVPN... it will never be removed from the App Store.
Expected
#Censorship #Internet #Russia
ru → en

Musa Lomaev

I assume — and there are many arguments in favor of this — that the next person, if Chechnya remains within the borders of the Russian Federation, will most likely be either Vladimir Putin’s personal bodyguard or some retired general. But in any case, it will not be a Chechen or a person from the Caucasus.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Well, that’s nonsense. It’s nonsense. There will be no nuclear strike. In response to the remark: "Alarming news. U.S. citizens — the American embassy in Kyiv is urging heightened vigilance... There are reports that the Americans might be fearing a nuclear strike" (on Ukraine)
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And I'm sure there will be. The question is, in what size or scale. In response to the remark: "I'm sure there will be no human settlement on Mars"
Expected
#Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If Kadyrov does die, for example from illness or something else, my prediction is that none of Kadyrov’s successors will stay in power — neither Delimkhanov nor Daudov will remain presidents of Chechnya, that won’t happen, and his son won’t stay either.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The paradox of Navalny is that they killed him now, but his role and significance lie in the future. Squares will be named after him, cities will be named in honor of Alexei Navalny. That will inevitably happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Scott Bessent

Well, first off all, I will say the United States of America is never going to default.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Fyodor Ovchinnikov

We will definitely open in Italy. Dodo Pizza
Expected
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No. Thanks to Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, his remarkable intellect, and his exceptional diplomatic and strategic foresight, Belarus will not get involved. He is maneuvering between Scylla and Charybdis. In response to the question: "Will Belarus get drawn into the conflict?" (referring to the war in Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Belarus #Lukashenko
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

We definitely need to bomb the plant in Alabuga. I think it will be done. I have a gut feeling that the plant in Alabuga, where the Shaheds are being produced, will be taken out. Ukraine will disable the Russian plant producing Shahed drones, located in Alabuga.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Zoom, I think. Google, I believe, will be one of the last, it seems to me. In response to the question: "Who will be banned next?" (In Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Censorship #Internet
ru → en

Maxim Katz

If an opportunity opens up in Russia right now to create a party and take part in elections, there will be a major liberal party in two weeks — I’ll create it. I know how, I know who, everything is clear to me — it will be ready in two weeks. If I remain in the same condition as I am now by the time Russia opens up, we’ll set it up in two weeks. It will participate in everything, people will vote for it. It won’t get 60%, it will get 15–20%. In Moscow, it will get 40 percent, in St. Petersburg and other major cities. It will be an important political force.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Monero is currently an untraceable currency, which makes it the most uniform... I’m certain that Monero will definitely be banned on all exchanges.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies #Economy
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

... He will remain the top figure until the end. I believe he will hold on to power for as long as physically possible — that's my prediction. In response to the question: "What are the possible ways for Putin to leave power other than death?"
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

So when I talk about how the Russia-Ukraine situation will end, I predict it will end with a "Northern Cyprus" scenario He draws an analogy with the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognized only by Turkey, and there's a buffer zone between the two republics
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolay Rosov

There should be an election after the special military operation, and of course someone else will take the position. I'm more than sure it most likely won't be Zelensky. I don't think Zelensky will run for another term or that anyone will try to elect him — he's unelectable at this point. Talking about the presidential election in Ukraine.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

And I’m sure that the time will come — some event will happen or something — and they’ll simply force it: all USDT will be frozen until you submit your personal information.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Fyodor Ovchinnikov

We currently have around 470 pizzerias in Russia. We are 200% sure that we’ll open 1,000. It’s just a matter of time. Speaking about the Dodo Pizza chain.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

When the offensive fails—he hasn’t taken either Kramatorsk or Sloviansk, and never will—the Coalition of Will, of which Ukraine is a member, will face the question: what to do next? The Russian army will never take Sloviansk or Kramatorsk.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

We’re waiting for a drone swarm. I’m sure that during this war, we’ll see one. Sooner or later, we’ll definitely witness a swarm of drones. Air defense is in no way capable of withstanding a massive attack targeting one or several objectives, carried out by a hundred or two hundred drones. I believe Ukraine already has such capabilities — or will have them soon.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Kara-Murza

I rarely agree with Putin on anything, but there's one thing he said yesterday that’s hard to disagree with. He said that the war in Ukraine will continue until its root causes are eliminated. I completely agree with that. The only thing is, the real root cause of this terrible war is the current Chekist regime... As long as Putin remains in power, the war will go on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Who exactly will become his successor? That’s the key question. It won’t be Adam Kadyrov. Nothing of the sort. Adam Kadyrov will not succeed Ramzan Kadyrov.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Ian Matveev

In terms of probability, I would assess it as low. Because the involvement of Russia’s regions in Russian affairs is very high — most likely, no one will want to separate, in my opinion. The republics of the Caucasus — maybe; their probability is somewhat higher. As for Tatarstan, the probability is zero. In response to the question: "What do you think about the possibility of national republics breaking away from the Russian Federation after the end of the Putin regime? How likely do you think that is?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

If we’re talking about European countries, they abide by international law — unlike Putin. Therefore, of course, no one is going to attack Kaliningrad.
Expected
#Russia #Europe
ru → en