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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
449
Predictions
3181
Verified
1196
Came true
65%
Complex
58%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Maxim Katz

I believe so, yes, I believe Putin is currently at war. The Baltics look like the obvious next step. In response to the clarifying question: "If Ukraine capitulates, will Putin definitely start a war somewhere else?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think we should expect them from Belarus, but not from Russia. In response to the question: "Should we expect more exchanges with Belarus and the Russian Federation?" (Exchanges of political prisoners)
Expected
#Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

This is part of the hybrid war against Europe. This is a new wave of refugees, a new burden on Europe, which started screaming, "We are at war with Russia, Russia will surely attack, we must unite." Although it is clear to everyone that Russia will not attack the main, large part of Europe, at least.
Expected
#Russia #Europe
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

A person who spoke such words about Ukrainians and Ukraine, I assume, would never be able to get even 1% in an honest election. Arestovych
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Literally at this moment, a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump began at the White House. There will be a discussion of the plan for this deal, which is a 21-point deal. I believe Israel will agree... I sincerely don't believe that Hamas will agree to this deal.
Expected
#Hamas #Israel #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

The point is that Hamas represents the position of the majority of Palestinians, for whom the goal is the destruction of the Jewish state and the Jewish people, which is why this plan will not work. Trump's plan, which he laid out on September 29, 2025.
Expected
#Israel #Hamas #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Yes, they would. But I don't think it will come to that. In response to the question: "NATO is threatening to shoot down Russian fighter jets. Do they have the guts?"
Expected
#NATO #Russia
ru → en

Valeriya Ratnikova

Alla Pugacheva could face up to 5 years in prison for her remarks about Dzhokhar Dudayev... I don't think Alla Pugacheva will face a criminal case.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, Israel won't risk attacking Turkey, never. In response to the question: "Could you please tell me if Israel would risk attacking Turkey?"
Expected
#Israel #Turkey
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Here we see Markaryan, who spoke out against the war... He'll go to prison; they'll put him there.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

For now, we're being saved by Trump's greed, in that he's willing to sell these weapons to the Europeans, but then he'll sell weapons to the Russians. I think it'll all happen just like that.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Do you believe that Narendra Modi will give up buying Russian oil? No, he won't. Trump will be the one to meet him halfway.
Expected
#India #Trump #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This SCO, as well as BRICS and Russia's customs unions, are purely bureaucratic inventions that won't play a role. They will not replace the dollar.
Expected
#Russia #Dollar
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Just recently, they took down a drug smugglers' boat. It was a big victory for Trump. Well, that looks very stupid. They most likely won't do anything about Maduro. Most likely, nothing will change. I think there's only one end for Maduro: either his own people will finish him off, or he'll just die.
Expected
#Venezuela
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

No matter what's happening in Europe or what statements are being made there, no one will fight. They just won't join this war; it's obvious. European countries will not enter the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Igor Eidman

If Putin doesn't agree to this, the Europeans won't send any troops anywhere. That's because they aren't ready to go to war with Putin. If Putin doesn't give his consent, the Europeans won't send troops to Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I think that when there's a worldwide trial over the rule of Vladimir Putin and his accomplices, Beslan will be one of the main arguments. And have no doubt that this trial will happen.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Look at Venezuela, it's been thrown into the mix. Nothing will happen... because to do that, one would have to enter into a real, prolonged conflict with an unpredictable outcome. And he's geared for perpetual victory, Trump is.
Expected
#Venezuela
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

Under Putin, this law will be neither abolished nor softened, from my point of view. In response to the question: "What are the chances that this law will be repealed or at least modified?" (The law on foreign agents in Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

If peace is achieved, in the format that we can currently imagine, then Crimea will certainly be recognized as Russian. I simply don't see how the Kremlin could concede this on the part of the Americans.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I'm betting on Kashevarova. It's time to declare her a foreign agent. In response to the question: "Who is next among the pro-government people, what's your forecast?" (Referring to who will be declared a foreign agent next in Russia)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Anatoly Wasserman

Against this backdrop, only a reckless individual like Netanyahu could escalate things to direct strikes on Iran. He has no other way out. He has headed the government for many years with several interruptions, and during that time, he managed to cause so much trouble that in the event of another dismissal, he will inevitably face an investigation, and then most likely a trial.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

As long as Putin is alive, this war cannot end. It doesn't matter what Trump says, it doesn't matter what Zelensky signs. Putin needs the whole of Ukraine. And if he gets all of it, of course he won't stop there.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

I think that this meeting will take place someday. At some point, we will see Putin and Zelensky in the same room. In response to the question: "How expedient and realistic do you see a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Putin in the near future?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

We will also see many countries joining NATO, and many forces moving closer to the Russian border.
Expected
#NATO #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

A full takeover of Gaza, a full annexation of Gaza will happen, and Hamas will cease to exist.
Expected
#Gaza #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Boris Zimin

Vladimir Putin will most likely be buried with honors. He's doing just fine.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Our president is thinking about the elections, and he's thinking about them too early, and he thinks he has a chance to be re-elected. And because he is thinking not about the war, but about the elections, he will lose the elections regardless, if he lives to see them. Speaking about Zelensky.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

This is a consistent policy of the Israeli state—to grant asylum to all Jews regardless of the reason they are compelled to repatriate. So of course Israel will protect Zelensky if he makes that decision.
Expected
#Israel #Zelensky
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The norms of international relations are becoming a thing of the past. The International Court of Justice has lost all authority before our very eyes. I think it's unlikely that we will ever regard it as a serious force.
Expected
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The fates of the AfD and the National Rally are fundamentally different—the AfD will not be in power.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So, Mikheil Saakashvili, by being in prison... this plays the important role that there are absolutely no doubts about who is in power in Georgia. I know that efforts, both through negotiations and other means, are being made and are continuing for his release, but my prediction is that they will not release him.
Expected
#Georgia
ru → en

Ekaterina Margolis

De Luca failed on both fronts, facing sharp criticism within Italy. He is unlikely to be elected for a third term as governor of Campania. Campania is a region in Italy.
Expected
#Italy #Elections
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I can predict that the state of Syria will most likely no longer exist. It will be divided, to some extent, between Turkey and, perhaps, chunks of Syria, the Alawites, and the territory that Israel controls.
Expected
#Syria #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I'm completely confident that at some point, Putin will try to strike the Baltic states. I believe he has many plans drawn up regarding Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Of course, he is unlikely to go for Finland, given his past bad experience and the fact that the Finns are more prepared to defend their country.
Expected
#Russia #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #Finland #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I am absolutely confident, and you will see, it won't be long to wait. Three things will become completely unacceptable in the world after this war. Prisons will disappear from the world as the main instrument of the enslavement of the people. Nationalists will disappear from the world, because any nationalism, at its extreme, leads to Nazism. And borders will disappear from the world. After the war in Ukraine.
Expected
ru → en

Alfred Koch

They won't seize it. It will agree to some kind of slow integration on its own, like Hong Kong. In response to the comment: "If Taiwan is captured..."
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

North Korea's air force is incredibly weak, it's practically nonexistent. In the event of a war with South Korea, their air force would be destroyed within the first few hours.
Expected
#North Korea #South Korea
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The German Chancellor stated that Russia must pay 500 billion euros to Ukraine. And then Russia can ask for the 200 billion euros frozen in the EU to be returned to them. Hmm. By the way, in that case, they wouldn't give back the 200 billion euros for anything. They'd find something to fault.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #Germany #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Petrov

Chinese won't displace English... Unless, of course, the Chinese switch to Latin script, which they won't.
Expected
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

And Zelensky also cares about security. He understands that stopping the war means immediate elections, immediate removal of this group from power, and the start of investigations into this group's activities after the elections.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

First, Putin says, recognize these territories and give me guarantees, and then I'll be ready to stop the hot phase of the war. He understands that if the war stops now along this line, it will lead to endless negotiations that will last decades and certainly won't result in the recognition of occupied territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

If the war doesn't stop, it will lead to the removal of democratic power in Ukraine and catastrophically increase the chances of Putin's supporters coming to power.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think so. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia is facing another Chechen war?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think no, they likely won't attack. The US will certainly get involved. Answer to the question: "Do you think China will attack Taiwan?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Putin also has an awarded weapon, but he'll never have the guts to make the right choice. Meaning, Putin won't shoot himself.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Her criminal case definitely awaits her. Answer to the question: "Where do you see Elvira Nabiullina after some time?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Lucy Grin

This is a rehearsal for a speech in Nuremberg: "we have nothing to do with this, we are journalists." Mark my words, remember this broadcast. The speech will be identical. Kiselev... Dmitry Kiselev will be tried analogously to the Nuremberg trials.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en