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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
394
Predictions
2501
Verified
908
Came true
65%
Complex
53%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vyacheslav Maltsev

No, of course not. In response to the question: "Slava, what do you think — will your buddy Volodin be jailed?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Victor Shenderovich

Now it's too late for him to drink Borjomi. Stepping down from power means an immediate trial, in the best-case scenario — a trial, if he even lives to see it. About Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Stepan Demura

If industrial production in the U.S. increases its share of GDP by 5 percent. But that will never happen.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Leonid Ivashov

They won’t go to war with Taiwan just to gain control over the chip industry and so on. They’ll resolve this issue peacefully. Even though they’re lagging behind in silicon-based technologies, they won’t start a war over Taiwan. Chinese wisdom is still present there. Ours has vanished into eternity, but theirs — the Confucian approach — is still alive in China. That’s why I don’t believe China will go to war.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The Baltic states are undoubtedly a risk zone, but direct aggression will most likely occur only after one version or another of the war against Ukraine has played out. Whether Putin will be in a position to attack anyone after this war — or whether he’ll even still be around — is a rhetorical question, because I don’t have an answer to it. If Putin does attack the Baltic states, it will be after the war against Ukraine is over.
Expected
#Putin #Russia #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Ramzan Akhmatovich has long been building backup airfields in the territories of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf... But I don't think he plans to relocate there for the sake of his own security.
Expected
#Kadyrov
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If peacekeepers are deployed, then a no-fly zone over Ukraine will definitely follow... They will at the very least protect the areas where the peacekeeping contingent is stationed. That’s for sure.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

If the war continues specifically with Ukraine, there won’t be a mobilization. But if there’s a clash with NATO or a group of NATO countries, then mobilization will definitely happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Answer to the question: Will there be a mobilization? My answer is: most likely, yes — because the generals are persistent people, and for Putin, Ukraine is the main enemy, something that must be destroyed. And as for the people, the National Guard and the valiant security services will take care of them.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Taking Zaporizhzhia or taking Dnipro won’t work for the Russians — I’m saying that in advance. Because capturing a major city is an extremely complex operation, fraught with massive losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Let’s imagine that Russian troops really do approach Zaporizhzhia and the battle for the city begins. Do you think the Armed Forces of Ukraine would leave those bridges across the Dnipro — I believe there are three of them — intact? In my view, the likelihood of that is zero.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Over the past month, there’s been a kind of offensive stirring of Russian troops. And overall, it’s clear they’re probably planning to move toward Zaporizhzhia. Will it work? Only God knows. I think it won’t work out.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Over the past week and the one before it, as well as over the past few months, there’s been a lot of talk that the U.S. might either withdraw from NATO or weaken its ties with the alliance. Well, I state with full confidence: this is complete nonsense. The United States will never give up such a tool of military and political dominance in Europe as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Expected
#NATO #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

I personally believe that Marco Rubio will most likely leave Trump’s circle — possibly even faster than Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia. On the relationship between Trump and Putin
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I believe that once Kadyrov is gone, within a few months — let alone a few years — all that will be left of him in Chechnya will be memories, that there once was such a person as Kadyrov. Everything will be renamed, everything will be removed.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Vasily Koltashov

Russia has incorporated four new regions. It will take in four more, and then another four. This will likely continue to happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

In any case, they will not appear in Ukraine until a full agreement to freeze the war is signed. Only after that can a peacekeeping contingent be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I strongly disagree with the idea that any form of ending the war in Ukraine will lead to some kind of thaw, a weakening of the regime, or anything like that. I don't believe in it, and I don’t recommend that you do either.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Alexander Kolyandr

Personally, I think the next move we’ll see will be an attack by Trump and his administration on the Federal Reserve, trying to strip it of its independence or at least push it into the shadows — or on the U.S. statistical bureau, to make it provide more “correct” numbers.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

When will Moldova attack Transnistria? Never. Moldova won’t attack Transnistria because it doesn’t have the resources for that.
Expected
#Moldova
ru → en

Maria Pevchikh

Remember this tweet. Later, they’ll all come to us: Kirill Dmitriev, all those technocrats, the employees of today’s Ministry of Economic Development and Finance, or the bankers from Sberbank — Gref and the rest. After Putin, they will appear in a completely different light. They’ll be soft and fluffy. They’ll say things on TV that melt our hearts. They’ll smile and talk about how important and heroic Alexei Navalny was, how they secretly supported him all along, and how vital his work was.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

In reality, Putin won’t last long. When this regime collapses, all those territories will return to Ukraine — there’s no doubt about that. And all those criminals who carried out these seizures — we will hunt them down around the world and bring them to justice. Justice will prevail. Sometimes, it doesn’t come immediately.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Putin #Russia
ru → en

German Gref

A situation where machines become self-aware and decide that humans are unnecessary on this planet — well, that’s a very hypothetical scenario. It sounds impressive, you can tell stories about it, you can scare people with it. I don’t believe it will happen.
Expected
#Science and technology
ru → en

Igor Slabykh

Ideally, a special prosecutor should be appointed. Because who’s going to conduct the investigation? Tulsi Gabbard, who took part in that chat? Or the CIA director? They’re all interested parties. A special prosecutor needs to be appointed to carry out the investigation. But that’s not going to happen.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

An increase in military support for Ukraine — it’s already clear that this won’t happen. Trump won’t do it, even though such proposals have been discussed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This crazy idea of external governance in Ukraine is clearly completely unworkable.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Ryabkov

I don't think this will happen. I believe that in the rhetoric, in the vocabulary, in the language used by the current administration, there's a certain amount of bravado. I think it's a kind of verbal whip used to spur the "NATO horse." The U.S. will not leave NATO.
Expected
#USA #NATO
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I don't think so, after all. In response to the question: "Will Trump break up NATO?"
Expected
#NATO #Trump
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

To imagine that Ukraine would give up or withdraw from the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — that’s a strange assumption. Even if Trump joins the war alongside Putin, even that won’t lead to Ukraine agreeing to give them up.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vitalij Manskij

I think a new Putin will emerge. There’s virtually no hope that a “Gorbachev” will come after Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Vitalij Manskij

I believe that Putin got lucky with the Russian people. And he will die in power.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

The Americans know that Taiwan won’t resist... Chinese won’t resist other Chinese.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

For now, they differ in that American tanks aren’t rolling up to Toronto... I still don’t really believe that Americans are going to go to war with Canada. In response to the question: “What’s the difference between Trump’s statements about Canada and Putin’s about Ukraine?”
Expected
#USA #Canada
ru → en

Andrey Zubov

I would like Putin to repent... Once he is gone, the war will truly end within two weeks. I am absolutely sure of that. And it will most likely end exactly this way.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I am sure that sooner or later, some sort of Prigozhin analogue will emerge in the Russian army, I have almost no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

What future awaits Akim Apachev? I think it's quite an unseemly one. We've seen what happened to Strelkov.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Kamikadze D

Turkey, together with Israel, using these rebels, threw Assad and his Russian lackeys to hell. Hmeimim and Tartus will never be Russian again.
Expected
#Syria #Russia #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #UN
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Putin is stronger than he was 4 years ago. This is a reality that must be acknowledged. And the scenarios that seemed realistic back then are not realistic at all today. Therefore, I don’t believe in the “snuffbox scenario” at all. The “snuffbox” refers to the fate of Russian Emperor Paul I, who was killed by conspirators using a snuffbox.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Gaza Strip until he receives full guarantees that it has ceased to be a hub of hatred toward Israel and as long as there is even the slightest threat coming from there.
Expected
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I am not afraid of the collapse of the European Union. It seems inevitable to me, at least in the form we know it today with 27 countries. But that does not mean the end of the EU. It means that a reconfiguration will take place.
Expected
#European Union
ru → en