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I can say with confidence that in the coming days, Erdogan and Aliyev will make a statement expressing concern for the safety of the 30 million Azerbaijani population in this chaotic situation.
#Iran

If Iran does not deliver a devastating strike against Israel now—one that kills many Israelis—then in two days the European Union and everyone else will gather their resolve and impose sanctions against Israel.
#Israel #Iran #European Union

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The market reaction is one thing. The European ultimatum, which Peskov commented on regarding the ceasefire, is another. And the meeting in Istanbul is a third. As for the fundamental and main question — will there be peace? In my opinion, no. Because the positions of the two sides differ drastically.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
#USA

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin

Imagine that Putin arrested Sobyanin, several million people took to the streets all over Russia, and Alexander Beglov called for the President’s resignation and early elections. Can you picture that? That's exactly what's happening in Turkey right now. My prediction is that Erdogan will manage to get through this time as well, but only through repressive forceful means. He either lacks the political resources to contain the crisis or is unwilling to use them.
#Turkey #Erdogan

There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Saudi Arabia

I am sure that it will. In response to the question: "Will the war stop, as some say, by the middle of this year or not?" (The war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, we are not that close to negotiations. Between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

All unpopular decisions, including lowering the conscription age, will be pinned on him, and that's it. Then they will change him. I think this will happen in the first half of next year. Response to the remark: "You have repeatedly said that Zelensky is illegitimate..."
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Words of politicians and officials

Israel is counting on a long timeframe — up to two weeks. Of course, in one form or another, either the physical elimination of these ayatollahs or something else. I believe the regime in Iran will change within those two weeks.
#Iran

Well, I think that on June 16–17, France will recognize the State of Palestine.
#Palestine #France

I personally believe that Marco Rubio will most likely leave Trump’s circle — possibly even faster than Elon Musk.
#USA

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think this war will definitely continue into next year. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I find it hard to imagine a breakthrough to the right bank of the Oskil River with the establishment of a bridgehead. Referring to Russian troops and the Oskil River in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin urgently needs to end this war. I think he needs to wait a few months. And we will see how gradually he will start to roll back... Apparently, he will manage to retain at least Donbas for some time, and the question of Crimea will likely be postponed. But Putin will begin to roll back
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

They won’t reverse course, because everything is happening too quickly, and by now it would openly look like an admission that they’ve lost politically. Withdraw Medinsky? Under what pretext? It’s too late for that. More likely, I think, they’ll actually toughen their demands. They’ll now tighten their demands even more — paradoxically, not ease them, but specifically toughen them. That’s most likely what will happen. Some things will sound more blunt, more brazen, more cynical. And going forward, one can assume that the negotiations will end in nothing. Russia will toughen its demands on Ukraine at the negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I suspect, predicting, that the right-wing is likely facing defeat in the upcoming elections in Poland.
#Poland #Elections

Negotiations are impossible. We can forget about negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be some format. Primarily with the mediation of Turkey. The format of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Were you planning a summer trip to Anapa? And already considering canceling it? Cancel the cancellation! By summer, all of Anapa's beaches will be completely cleaned of oil residue. Enormous resources are being directed towards the cleanup. Thousands of volunteers—and some non-volunteers—are working. All the sand will be sifted. The cleanup will be personally overseen by the Minister of Natural Resources, Kozlov. All this so that millions of families with children can enjoy their summer vacation in Anapa!
#Russia #Oil

Our missiles and drones—get ready—they will soon reach Siberia and the Urals. I’m repeating this, guys, be prepared, our range is doing just fine too. (Ukrainian missiles and drones.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

At this point, they have the ability to shut down YouTube... Will they do it? Honestly, I find it hard to believe... But they might start to slow it down. Regarding the blocking or slowing down of YouTube in Russia
#Russia #Internet #Censorship

I am just sure that we will see completely different prices — oil at $200, and gas at $4,000-5,000 per thousand cubic meters, and so on. The decisions being made are still leading to an escalation of the situation.
#Economy #Gas #Oil #Russia

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

I think that by summer, as I mentioned before, the fighting will subside due to limited resources.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It is clear that there will be no ceasefire. This will even be discussed until summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, Rubio is a disaster... In a couple of months, he’ll be thrown out for failing to live up to all of Trump’s illusions.
#USA

I do not believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of peace. I do not even believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Within a few months, the conflict will be frozen—I have little doubt about that. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think we’ll see Putin and Zelensky at the negotiating table anytime soon.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine

India and Pakistan: 1. They carried out strikes against each other — around 10 strikes each, with approximately 10–30 casualties on each side. 2. There is little global concern. 3. Even though they each have about 170 nuclear warheads. 4. It is believed they will exchange another one or two rounds of strikes, gradually de-escalating, and then it will all calm down. 5. This reflects the hatred between Hindus and Muslims. 6. And the unresolved territorial issue. 7. China supports Pakistan. 8. The USA, Britain, and Israel support India. 9. Islamic countries, including Turkey, support Pakistan. 10. Russia is neutral, but India has closer relations with Russia than Pakistan does. 11. The forecast: another 20 or so people may be killed, and then things will settle down.
#India #Pakistan

Many are now writing that this week will be critical, that something will be decided in the coming days. It seems to me that, logically, they should at least sign a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, it's not guaranteed — I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The war in the Middle East is expected to start, roughly speaking, immediately after Trump’s inauguration—that is, late January or early February. After that, oil prices will rise, and life in Russia will improve. If a war in the Middle East begins after Trump’s inauguration, oil prices will increase.
#Oil #Russia #Middle East

Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in US dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & Silver Gods money. Bitcoin people’s $. Take care.
#USA #Economy #Bitcoin

We’re recording this broadcast on the eve of potential negotiations. People are hoping for a ceasefire, for peace. I don’t believe in it. Let’s proceed from the assumption that it won’t happen. Speaking about the war in Ukraine and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that the U.S. and the West will not recognize the new president. They will not recognize the elections. In Georgia.
#Georgia #USA #Elections

The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward. Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia

Starting Monday, the 30-day ceasefire — in my opinion, I could be wrong — I would be very surprised if Moscow stops the fire. My logic, my understanding of the process, suggests that it won’t happen on Moscow’s part. On the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Kyiv starting May 12.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Despite Donald Trump’s efforts, it is unlikely to lead to any immediate ceasefire. At the very least, the fighting will still continue during the first few months of 2025. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We are in for the most momentous events this very week. Every single day this week will be exceptional. In just over four hours, it's zero hour. And we’ll see what happens. We are witnessing history.

And already in the winter, maybe in the spring, some real negotiations will begin. There won’t be peace yet. But some real negotiations will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Trump urged Ukraine to agree to the meeting on May 15, so it seems to me that it should take place. Referring to the meeting with Russia in Istanbul on May 15.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Turkey

Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

With a high degree of probability, Ukraine will refuse to participate in the negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey