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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
418
Predictions
2767
Verified
1015
Came true
65%
Complex
54%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Dmitry Gordon

We definitely need to bomb the plant in Alabuga. I think it will be done. I have a gut feeling that the plant in Alabuga, where the Shaheds are being produced, will be taken out. Ukraine will disable the Russian plant producing Shahed drones, located in Alabuga.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They won’t reverse course, because everything is happening too quickly, and by now it would openly look like an admission that they’ve lost politically. Withdraw Medinsky? Under what pretext? It’s too late for that. More likely, I think, they’ll actually toughen their demands. They’ll now tighten their demands even more — paradoxically, not ease them, but specifically toughen them. That’s most likely what will happen. Some things will sound more blunt, more brazen, more cynical. And going forward, one can assume that the negotiations will end in nothing. Russia will toughen its demands on Ukraine at the negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Zoom, I think. Google, I believe, will be one of the last, it seems to me. In response to the question: "Who will be banned next?" (In Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Censorship #Internet
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

... He will remain the top figure until the end. I believe he will hold on to power for as long as physically possible — that's my prediction. In response to the question: "What are the possible ways for Putin to leave power other than death?"
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

So when I talk about how the Russia-Ukraine situation will end, I predict it will end with a "Northern Cyprus" scenario He draws an analogy with the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognized only by Turkey, and there's a buffer zone between the two republics
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolay Rosov

There should be an election after the special military operation, and of course someone else will take the position. I'm more than sure it most likely won't be Zelensky. I don't think Zelensky will run for another term or that anyone will try to elect him — he's unelectable at this point. Talking about the presidential election in Ukraine.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I think the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed to increase sanctions, including imposing 500% tariffs on companies trading with Russia, will pass. Trump will have to accept it.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

If this war lasts until January 2026 — and I’m sure it will — then it will have lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. A lot of people are dying, but Putin doesn’t care. And unfortunately, Ukraine has no way out.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Maybe I’ll stay here in New York forever, or maybe in 5, 10, or 15 years I’ll move somewhere else. But in about 15 years, I’m sure there will be a Russia one can return to.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s very important not to repeat Putin’s mistake. Apparently, Putin believes he is winning and that a moment may come when the Ukrainian army is completely exhausted, the front collapses, the army retreats, and nothing is left of it. He believes he can seize that moment to capture significantly more territory and win the war. He’s waiting for that — he believes such a moment will come. We are confident that such a moment will not come. The current supply of ammunition and equipment is, more or less, sufficient for Ukraine to sustain the war at its present pace.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Maxim Katz

If an opportunity opens up in Russia right now to create a party and take part in elections, there will be a major liberal party in two weeks — I’ll create it. I know how, I know who, everything is clear to me — it will be ready in two weeks. If I remain in the same condition as I am now by the time Russia opens up, we’ll set it up in two weeks. It will participate in everything, people will vote for it. It won’t get 60%, it will get 15–20%. In Moscow, it will get 40 percent, in St. Petersburg and other major cities. It will be an important political force.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

And I’m sure that the time will come — some event will happen or something — and they’ll simply force it: all USDT will be frozen until you submit your personal information.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Pavel Schelin

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

When the offensive fails—he hasn’t taken either Kramatorsk or Sloviansk, and never will—the Coalition of Will, of which Ukraine is a member, will face the question: what to do next? The Russian army will never take Sloviansk or Kramatorsk.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Michael Nacke

We’re waiting for a drone swarm. I’m sure that during this war, we’ll see one. Sooner or later, we’ll definitely witness a swarm of drones. Air defense is in no way capable of withstanding a massive attack targeting one or several objectives, carried out by a hundred or two hundred drones. I believe Ukraine already has such capabilities — or will have them soon.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Recently, there was the largest overnight drone attack on Kyiv — nearly 300 Shaheds. Russian channels claimed, “Just wait — there will be 600 soon, then 1,000.” It won’t happen soon, but eventually, it definitely will. The Shaheds are getting more advanced, harder to shoot down... They’ll terrorize the rear, strike with ballistic missiles, and hit with Shaheds. And when the attacks reach 400–600 Shaheds in a single night — and they definitely will, in six months or a year — things will get very serious. Air defense won’t be able to handle it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ilya Ponomarev

My forecast, based purely on intuition and general practice, is that Trump — or rather, to be more precise, the Republicans — should lose these midterm elections, and the majority in Congress should shift to the Democrats. Whether that happens or not, we’ll see.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Erdogan is clearly working on the problem of staying in power forever. How he plans to do this legally is already clear. He said so yesterday. He stated that Turkey urgently needs a new constitution. This means that a new constitution will be adopted within the next two years, and there will be a “reset” — allowing him to run for office again in 2028. The term “reset” was widely used in Russia as a mechanism for constitutional change that allowed Putin to remain president starting in 2024 due to the implementation of the revised constitution.
Expected
#Turkey #Erdogan #Elections
ru → en

Vladimir Kara-Murza

I rarely agree with Putin on anything, but there's one thing he said yesterday that’s hard to disagree with. He said that the war in Ukraine will continue until its root causes are eliminated. I completely agree with that. The only thing is, the real root cause of this terrible war is the current Chekist regime... As long as Putin remains in power, the war will go on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Yevgeny Satanovsky

I don’t believe for a second in the preservation of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases, for the simple reason that Erdogan — why would he need them? So that we could also control the Black Sea straits from the south? Moreover, why would the Americans need them — or Trump, for that matter? Speaking about the Russian military bases in Syria.
Expected
#Russia #Syria #Turkey
ru → en

Igor Eidman

There will be some token actions as part of the continuation of this negotiation process. These actions will take place. It’s purely a cover for Putin’s escalation of the war. Again, it’s meant to convince the Americans not to impose sanctions against them... And, unfortunately, yes — the war will go on. Within the current negotiation process, the war in Ukraine will not come to an end.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

We’re recording this broadcast on the eve of potential negotiations. People are hoping for a ceasefire, for peace. I don’t believe in it. Let’s proceed from the assumption that it won’t happen. Speaking about the war in Ukraine and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Who exactly will become his successor? That’s the key question. It won’t be Adam Kadyrov. Nothing of the sort. Adam Kadyrov will not succeed Ramzan Kadyrov.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Ian Matveev

In terms of probability, I would assess it as low. Because the involvement of Russia’s regions in Russian affairs is very high — most likely, no one will want to separate, in my opinion. The republics of the Caucasus — maybe; their probability is somewhat higher. As for Tatarstan, the probability is zero. In response to the question: "What do you think about the possibility of national republics breaking away from the Russian Federation after the end of the Putin regime? How likely do you think that is?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

If we’re talking about European countries, they abide by international law — unlike Putin. Therefore, of course, no one is going to attack Kaliningrad.
Expected
#Russia #Europe
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Savik Shuster

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en