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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
438
Predictions
2953
Verified
1068
Came true
65%
Complex
55%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Maksim Shevchenko

Iran will become part of a single military-economic system (along with China) oriented towards China and will be under the Chinese umbrella, under Chinese protection. Answer to the question: "Maxim, what will happen to Iran in the future?"
Expected
#Iran #China
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Let them believe that defeat is not final, that it is not capitulation. But now they will be offered a deal and asked to abandon their nuclear ambitions. They will ponder it for a long time—and most likely agree. After all, on the other side of the scale lies the bombing of Iran or actions that would remove the Ayatollahs.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Ezra Mor

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November.
Expected
#Gaza #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleg Tinkov

Plata is currently valued at 3 billion… and we’ll achieve a $10 billion IPO within two years. Plata is a Mexican fintech company.
Expected
#Mexico #Economy
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

You can criticize Spain’s prime minister all you want for refusing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. He did the right thing—he has elections coming up. How do you justify telling him to spend 5% instead of 2%? Who’s going to attack him—Algeria or Portugal? His own election is looming, and he’s almost certain to lose.
Expected
#Spain
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Kseniya Larina

Next, I suppose they’ll go all the way and pin a yellow star on the lapel of every “foreign agent”—that is, ban them from voting and from standing for office. Although it seems they already aren’t allowed to run… for now they still have the right to participate in elections, but I think that will soon be revoked. In Russia, foreign agents will be prohibited from voting in elections.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I don’t think Tikhanovsky will emerge as a major leader or revolutionary Prometheus—it’s unlikely to happen. I believe Maria Kolesnikova is more capable of that.
Expected
#Belarus
ru → en

Alex Yusupov

I’d even bet money that we won’t see any procedure to ban the Alternative for Germany.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

They all talk about the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a given… It seems to me that if they go through with it, it will guarantee the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

At that Putin forum of his, his little elite reached a “deal”—as if it were a joke—that Afghanistan would send its specialists and builders to Russia. I’m certain we won’t see any Afghan builders or specialists here in Russia; we’ll only see products from Afghanistan.
Expected
#Russia #Afghanistan
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Moreover, from Gaza (as we know, Trump has already said he reached an agreement with Egypt) at least half the population will be evacuated—and eventually all of them. Israel will not accept a single migrant; those still there—indigenous Palestinians—will be expelled from the territory.
Expected
#Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Andrei Bogdanov

Since Freemasonry is quite a conservative organization, this process is taking a long time. Someday, women will probably be admitted. But my prediction is that it will be like in our pre-revolutionary schools — separate classes for girls and boys, but within the same gymnasium. Likewise, there will be an à la unified Grand Lodge of some country, consisting of both a male and a female Grand Lodge.
Expected
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It is well known that Putin will not lift the moratorium on the death penalty. Because the death penalty in modern Russia has been outsourced. If someone needs to be executed, it is not the state, the courts, or the investigators who handle it, but specially trained individuals.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that once Netanyahu is brought before the bench of defendants in Israel—as he inevitably will be—many aspects of the October 7 events will become known following the interrogations of Netanyahu and his associates.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I’m not very optimistic about a regime change in Iran, because war usually serves to unite the population around the ruling authorities.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Nikolay Kozhanov

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Kogan

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

North Korea: Apparently, there's a meme going around showing the North Korean Führer looking sad — everyone is bombing everyone else, and he wasn’t invited. Of course, he could attack South Korea, but then he would be killed, and he doesn't want that.
Expected
#North Korea #South Korea
ru → en

Denis Kataev

I want to be the mayor of Paris... there are no term limits there, but I’m not planning to serve more than two terms — I promise you that. Right now, Paris has a different election system. Mayors are not elected by the people; they’re chosen by the council of deputies... If I were elected to such a position, I’d want to abolish that system, because the mayor should be elected by the people.
Expected
#France
ru → en

Denis Kataev

Having lived here for a long time and having observed many processes, including political ones — particularly the case involving Sarkozy, which is ongoing and will soon result in a verdict — it is most likely that he will receive a real prison sentence. For the first time in French history, a president won't just be under electronic surveillance, but will actually go to prison.
Expected
#France
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

What are the possibilities for resistance? Look at how many cruise missiles Iran was launching at the beginning, and how many it launches today. There is basically no resistance. All this bravado that we hear in the informational space — it's all just blah blah blah. And no one is standing up for them. So nothing here will last long. I don't foresee any half-measures here. The war between Israel and Iran will not be long and will not involve half-measures.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I don't think that either Ukraine or Russia will have enough strength to continue this war until 2026. I have a feeling that some kind of political process has begun—a process of understanding that this war needs to be stopped.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
Expected
#USA #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Lowering the conscription age and female mobilization are practically inevitable. Tentatively, if things continue this way, it may happen around October–November of this year. Is it true that there will be a female mobilization?
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel declared from day one that the goal of this war was not to overthrow the regime in Iran; we did not have such a goal. Our goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, if Iran were to truly and sincerely agree—which is unlikely—to the complete dismantling of its entire nuclear system, including the civilian part, plus disarmament, plus renunciation of missile development... Iran will not agree to dismantle its nuclear system.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel is no longer surrounded by enemies. There is a peace treaty with Egypt, there is a peace treaty with Jordan. A peace treaty with Saudi Arabia was practically already on the table, and I’m sure it will be back on the table soon.
Expected
#Israel #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I can say that Israel will lose because the goals of this war — the destruction of Iran and regime change — are unattainable.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

And here we can talk about the main loser in this whole story. The main loser is the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and here’s why. He actually traveled to the Middle East to negotiate with Arab regimes and did in fact reach agreements that they would give him a lot of money—not four trillion, of course, but somewhere between one and one and a half trillion he could have received. Now there are no illusions; it’s absolutely clear that he won’t get any money. Due to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Middle East #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The population of Russia will decrease by about half by the end of the century. I don’t think the situation in Ukraine and Belarus will be significantly better.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

This is not a prediction. It seems to me that we're talking about a change of the Iranian regime. Protests will begin, and the ayatollahs' regime will not withstand them.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop. Iran's nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Look, the important forecast regarding Iran is that this won’t last long. Why? Because a ground operation is impossible. It’s not feasible because the countries are located far from each other. Who would land troops where, and how would they fight? Iran against Israel and Israel against Iran—it’s a remote war: a missile war, a drone war. There might be a special operation, but this is not a ground war. The second reason is that Israel doesn’t need Iran—it’s not planning to capture it or annex it to its territory. The current war between Israel and Iran will not last long.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? My prediction is no. My prediction is no. Why? Because then they would also lose Khark Island, the oil terminal, the refineries, and essentially their entire oil industry.
Expected
#Iran #Oil
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

In a nuclear war against NATO, I proceed from the assumption that it will happen. That it will be a war between NATO and Russia. Putin will lose. Russia will cease to exist.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #NATO #Putin
ru → en