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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
345
Predictions
2134
Verified
752
Came true
65%
Complex
52%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Sergey Buntman

Greenland will probably become independent eventually, as there seems to be a trend toward that.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I bet that Musk will be devoured by Trump within the next two years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I am absolutely certain that a contingent of several countries will be stationed on Ukrainian territory—a military contingent with heavy weaponry.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

By the way, I bet that Greenland's status will not change legally. In fact, it will remain the same as well. Especially since, as you’ve noted yourself, America’s influence there is already significant.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

If there is no Turkish-American deal regarding the Syrian Kurds, there will be no serious large-scale military operation by Turkey against the Kurds.
Expected
#Turkey #Syria #Kurds
ru → en

Petteri Orpo

I don't believe armed action at all, for example regarding Greenland. He does not believe that Greenland will be taken over by the US through any means during the next presidential term.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
en

Gela Vasadze

Once again, I’ve come to the full understanding that Georgia will inevitably become a member of NATO.
Expected
#Georgia #NATO
ru → en

Gela Vasadze

Once again, I’ve come to the full understanding that Ukraine will inevitably become a member of NATO.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

Canada is beginning to fall into complete disarray and disintegration. It will collapse. It’s an entirely artificial entity that cannot function under chaotic conditions.
Expected
#Canada
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

It seems to me that Alexander Lukashenko will do everything possible to step down this year. Where he will go, how, and on what terms is debatable. But I believe we are witnessing the final period of Lukashenko's rule. As a leading political figure, he can no longer be taken into serious account.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The Danish authorities are in a complete panic. They’re trying to secretly reach out to Trump and ask him not to take Greenland. In exchange, they’re ready to give the U.S. everything in Greenland—any military bases, any concessions. I think Trump won’t take Greenland outright. He’ll take everything there while formally leaving Denmark’s flag flying.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #Trump #USA
ru → en

Milana Petrova

Trump announced that he and Putin are preparing for a meeting. In light of this news, I’d like to ask you: Do you believe in a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year? I don’t. As long as Putin is alive, I think it’s impossible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Alexander Goldfarb

I don’t think it will come to war. I believe he will pressure Denmark and Greenland... Military action seems unrealistic to me because there are plenty of other methods of persuasion. Regarding Greenland joining the USA.
Expected
#USA #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

The likelihood that Japan will reclaim the group of islands—Habomai, Kunashir, Shikotan, and Iturup—in 2025 is very high.
Expected
#Japan
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

What is the likelihood of a civilian plane being shot down because airports are not permanently closed? It took three years for the first civilian plane to be shot down. The next one will take much less time. Within a year, the next one will be shot down by the Russians.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Anton Orekh

I am confident that when some kind of peace agreement or ceasefire is signed, sanctions will begin to be lifted fairly quickly. Maybe not all at once, but the process will start fairly quickly. A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Lifting sanctions on Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

I’ll allow myself to cautiously suggest that Ukrainian forces will likely remain in the territory of Kursk Oblast for at least the entire month of January.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Here’s my prediction: in the presidential election after the war, both Zelensky and Zaluzhny won’t be on the ballot simultaneously. Either neither Zelensky nor Zaluzhny will be there, or Zelensky will be, but not Zaluzhny, or Zaluzhny will, but not Zelensky. That’s my prediction. In Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Oleg Komolov

I doubt it. In response to the question: "The Central Bank didn’t raise the rate in December. Does this mean it will start to decline in 2025?" (In Russia).
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Andrii Baumeister

There is a high probability that elections will take place by mid-year. In response to the question: "Will 2025 be an election year in Ukraine?"
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

He’ll be left sitting in his own territory, waiting to lose the next elections, which he will certainly lose. In Slovakia, people are quite free-thinking, and there are competitive political forces. Speaking about Robert Fico.
Expected
#Slovakia #Elections
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

I’m willing to bet that this won’t happen. It absolutely won’t. This is a card that China always plays, especially frequently in recent times. In response to the question: "What do you think is the likelihood that China will follow through on its intentions and try to seize Taiwan by force?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Le Pen is far-right. The far-right in France has never been and will never be the majority in society. She might even win the first round, but she will lose to anyone in the second round.
Expected
#France #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The new chancellor will definitely not be Scholz. It is most likely to be Friedrich Merz, his competitor from another mainstream party—the Christian Democratic Union. The chancellor of Germany in 2025.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

My assumption is that during 2025, there will be no Russian occupiers on Syrian soil.
Expected
#Syria #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I think, and I’m even confident, that we will reach a ceasefire and then a peace agreement. I believe this will happen next year. I know that very intense consultations are currently taking place between the Russian and American sides. I assume between the American and Ukrainian sides as well. In response to the question: "What changes can we expect in military and diplomatic updates during 2025?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I believe that the U.S. and the West will not recognize the new president. They will not recognize the elections. In Georgia.
Expected
#Georgia #USA #Elections
ru → en

Arti Green

This situation not only cannot continue for long, but it will never reach the borders of Donetsk region. Just never. Russia will not be able to capture the entire Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I am absolutely convinced that when peace comes and elections are held according to the constitution, he will not run in those elections. I think that would be the wisest decision on his part. Speaking about Zelensky.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

I’m willing to bet money that they’ll shoot down another plane soon—nothing will change. They have absolutely no sense of responsibility; they are irresponsible people, not intelligent, and incapable of organizing anything. Suggesting that Russian air defenses will mistakenly shoot down another plane.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Either something about tariffs, possibly on imports from China, or something related to crypto. In response to the question: "What will Trump’s first executive order be after the inauguration?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Here’s my prediction: if Putin is alive, the war will not end in 2025. Putin has no interest in ending it. He believes he can have it all, not just some compromise. He doesn’t see how any compromise could allow him to save face. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Zhirnov

Putin will remain in power for as long as he is physically alive. If he lives until 2036, he will have been in power in the Russian Federation for 36 years by then.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Yan Veselov

Of course, he will face difficulties in the summer when the debt ceiling will inevitably have to be raised, even if some budget cuts are implemented. In 2025, the U.S. will have to raise the debt ceiling.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Bitcoin will continue to rise. It is designed as a growing system. If it’s used for partially storing assets of the U.S. national debt, it could reach a million... Ultimately, each Bitcoin is expected to be worth a million.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Scholz will still lose the parliamentary elections. The next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz. The winner of the elections will be the CDU—the Christian Democratic Union.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Treshchanin

Everything points to us sending the Myanmar junta into retirement in 2025. The ruling regime in Myanmar will be overthrown in 2025.
Expected
#Myanmar
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

It seems to me that it’s important to understand that in 2025, most likely, the lobbyists of the military-industrial complex will successfully devour Ms. Nabiullina.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolai Polozov

Despite Donald Trump’s efforts, it is unlikely to lead to any immediate ceasefire. At the very least, the fighting will still continue during the first few months of 2025. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

There is no doubt that Ukraine already has the capability to strike the Kremlin, just as Moscow can strike Bankova. This hasn’t been done during three years of war because certain boundaries existed. In 2025, those boundaries will be crossed—that is already clear.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Gulyaev

Russia has absolutely no chance of winning it. I said this on February 25, the day after the war began. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

I expect a ceasefire in Gaza. I think it could happen at the beginning of the year, maybe right after Trump’s inauguration, or perhaps even by the end of this year... It seems the sides will return to a freeze.
Expected
#Gaza #Israel #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

The war in the Middle East is expected to start, roughly speaking, immediately after Trump’s inauguration—that is, late January or early February. After that, oil prices will rise, and life in Russia will improve. If a war in the Middle East begins after Trump’s inauguration, oil prices will increase.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Middle East
ru → en