Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
450
Predictions
3208
Verified
1199
Came true
65%
Complex
58%
Confident
49%

Ian Matveev

I think no, neither Trump nor Putin will conduct nuclear tests—specifically, the detonation of nuclear charges—neither of them. Answer to the question: "And will Putin conduct nuclear tests?"
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am absolutely convinced that Königsberg will return to its historical homeland, or become an independent state. But this will only happen after Russia's military defeat.
Expected
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I am waiting for a review of the property tax system. In Russia
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Olga Romanova

So, is Lvova-Belova never going to end up in The Hague? Of course, she will. She is young; she will outlive Putin. She will end up there.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

What international contingent forces will be introduced into Ukraine after the signing of peace agreements. I have no doubt about this.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

The Burevestnik on their side, a submarine on this side, which can never be used. Because it's impossible to imagine any reason why Russian capitalists would fire nuclear weapons at American capitalists and vice versa, when they want to trade with each other.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think that at some stage, Ukraine will still receive Tomahawks or some analog of Tomahawks, like Barracuda missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Well, if he's released, a position will definitely be found, but somehow I feel they won't release him. The person knows too much. Timur Ivanov might be sent to the front... he's asking to be sent as an assault soldier to the SMO. Your prediction: will they actually release him? And will he really go on the attack as a private with a bayonet, or will some position be found for him?
Expected
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the deployment of troops to Chicago. Everything is moving towards the Supreme Court, which is highly likely to allow Trump to deploy the National Guard in Chicago.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged). Key rate
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ezra Mor

He will not end up there. There is no such risk. This is left-wing Israeli propaganda. There is no scenario in which Netanyahu actually ends up in prison.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Macron has elections in 2027... Bardella will most likely win them. If Le Pen is allowed to run, she will become the President of France; if not, then Bardella is her second-in-command in the party.
Expected
#France
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Putin will fly the long, roundabout way, through the Black Sea, through the Mediterranean Sea, through friendly countries... I think he will fly. European politicians have no chance of somehow forcing Trump to back out, and no chance of forcing Orbán to arrest Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Hungary
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I believe it is zero. I don't see any such chances for a freeze in the war. There are two and a half months left until the New Year. No, I consider it impossible. Answer to the question: "What do you think is the chance of the war ending before the New Year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I feel that Putin will not come to Hungary after all. They will either re-negotiate for a different location, or the meeting will simply fall through.
Expected
#Putin #Hungary
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

There is a feeling that it is absolutely inevitable in the near future. In response to: "Do you believe in the possibility of a big trade war between the US and China?"
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Do you believe in the possibility of a big trade war between the US and China? Because my feeling is that they are not ready yet. If five years pass and production is relocated, then yes, but for now, not really.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

This is an attempt to support Orbán, who is currently facing a big problem with the elections. Most likely, he will lose the election badly.
Expected
#Hungary #Elections
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The sanctions have reached their limit. I don't expect them to sharply intensify, because it is very unprofitable for the West itself. Western sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The Israeli army has withdrawn... My cautious prediction is that the war will continue. Because Hamas certainly won't voluntarily lay down its weapons. Because that would mean losing power in the Gaza Strip.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Anastasia Kashevarova... I really think she'll be imprisoned.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think one could choose the option "will give in the coming days". Will Trump give Tomahawks to Ukraine? The four options are: 1) Yes, will give in the coming days 2) Yes, but in months, or even years 3) Will promise, but won't give 4) Won't give and will stop promising. Which option would you choose, Yury Evgenyevich?
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Absolutely, and, of course, the Tomahawks will appear. That's my prediction. The US will transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Maxim Katz

I believe so, yes, I believe Putin is currently at war. The Baltics look like the obvious next step. In response to the clarifying question: "If Ukraine capitulates, will Putin definitely start a war somewhere else?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think we should expect them from Belarus, but not from Russia. In response to the question: "Should we expect more exchanges with Belarus and the Russian Federation?" (Exchanges of political prisoners)
Expected
#Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

This is part of the hybrid war against Europe. This is a new wave of refugees, a new burden on Europe, which started screaming, "We are at war with Russia, Russia will surely attack, we must unite." Although it is clear to everyone that Russia will not attack the main, large part of Europe, at least.
Expected
#Russia #Europe
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Right now, there is a vote underway for which object will appear on the new 500-ruble Russian banknote. And Mount Elbrus is competing with Grozny-City. I think Grozny-City will win the vote.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

A person who spoke such words about Ukrainians and Ukraine, I assume, would never be able to get even 1% in an honest election. Arestovych
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I can say for my part that you can have no doubt about the Tomahawks; the question is how effective they will be, when, and how many. As for Tomahawks, this is a more than realistic scenario. The US will transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

Alexei, well, I don't believe in the Tomahawks. Even Biden said that Tomahawks will only be supplied if Putin launches a nuclear strike. The US will not transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many are asking questions about the Russian IT specialists who were beaten and detained in Azerbaijan. I think nothing will change in their situation right now.
Expected
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

I've stated my prediction: they will choose a path soon—either they will carry out mobilization, or they will have to start peace negotiations. They can wait no longer than half a year.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

If they sort out all the technical issues, I think that in the next few years India will become the main driver of global growth. Trillions of dollars will be invested there.
Expected
#India #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

They won't be able to keep the budget deficit under 7-8 trillion, and they won't succeed. They will have so many expenses in December. And they will probably proceed as follows: they will finance part of the expenses not on December 30th, but on January 12th or some other day, and that will give them a breather... And this is the first dangerous game that will undermine the budget, because already in the first quarter, when they start calculating, they will show such a deficit that everyone will be shocked... They will certainly do this; I can practically bet on it. In Russia.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

How is Ibragim Suleymanov doing? And now, judging by the charges filed against him, he has two counts of organizing murders. I don't think the investigation will stop there. My prediction is they will find new criminal cases... Ibragim Suleymanov will be jailed for decades; there is no doubt about that.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Kozak is a fairly trusted figure for Vladimir Putin. Nothing will happen to Dmitry Kozak, I'm sure of that, just as nothing happened to Kudrin. I think Kozak will be somewhere at Kudrin's level.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Literally almost every day, news comes in about nationalizations or simply the redistribution of business. You know the most famous examples. There are two options: nationalization, and the second option is declaring it an extremist community. Now they will start doing this routinely. My prediction is that they will put this into practice on a large scale, and we will see quite a few more extremist communities, besides the Nevzorovs, the owners of Kirieshki, and Lesta.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

In my opinion, Roman Dobrokhotov was right to say that if he contacts us, we have sufficient data for 2017 and we will quickly understand how much basis this has. By the way, knowing Durov, I don't think he will contact anyone. I think there won't be much of a continuation of the story. And everyone will be left with the impression that Durov talked about poisoning, then proved nothing, so he was talking nonsense. Let's remember this conversation in six months; I think that's how it will be in six months. Remind me of this prediction in six months.
Expected
#Durov
ru → en

Ayder Muzhdabaev

My forecast is that the situation is approaching its climax. Call it World War Three, a hybrid war, or whatever you like. But the situation is approaching its climax. I think that the resolution will come during the first half of next year, or generally next year as a whole. Putin has already taken a low start. Drones across Europe—that is war... This will end with Russian ships being completely banned from sailing the seas; it will end with clashes with NATO. This cannot end with anything else, because Putin has decided to go all the way.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Probably not; it's very unlikely that Tomahawks will be supplied. In response to the question: "Will there be Tomahawks? How good are they? And what are the pros and cons?" (Will they be given to Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolai Korzhenevskiy

Returning to the Bank of Russia, it will want to see how this will affect inflationary expectations, so definitely until January 1st, no one will be lowering the key rate quickly. Referring to the key rate.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Literally at this moment, a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump began at the White House. There will be a discussion of the plan for this deal, which is a 21-point deal. I believe Israel will agree... I sincerely don't believe that Hamas will agree to this deal.
Expected
#Hamas #Israel #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

The point is that Hamas represents the position of the majority of Palestinians, for whom the goal is the destruction of the Jewish state and the Jewish people, which is why this plan will not work. Trump's plan, which he laid out on September 29, 2025.
Expected
#Israel #Hamas #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

When the elections take place in Hungary, the European Union will provoke a civil war in Hungary, similar to a velvet revolution. Combat detachments will be deployed there from Ukraine, composed of ethnic Hungarians, as well as from Serbia and Romania, where Hungarians reside, and they will overthrow Orbán.
Expected
#Hungary
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Russia cannot conclude a truce without reaching the borders of the DNR and LNR. But what if it fails to reach them? There will be a political crisis, I think. Then the war will continue, and then they will start supplying Tomahawks, I think.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I think that, right now with Netanyahu... some kind of terrible terrorist attack will happen in Israel that will be blamed on Hamas, in order to prolong this bloody life a little while longer for this gang that is at the head of the Jewish state.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Well, perhaps some very nominal figure, like Zhoga—meaning a 'desk veteran' who hasn't seen much fighting and clearly understands the party line. Naturally, no veterans of the Special Military Operation will be allowed into positions of power. The Kremlin would view them more as a dangerous, destructive force. In response to the question: "Will any SMO veteran be featured as one of the main driving forces in the upcoming campaign?"
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

What I'm sure of is, Putin won't go. The rating of United Russia is so disastrous that Putin cannot be associated with United Russia. As the list leader for United Russia in the 2026 elections.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

There will definitely be some military figure, someone who has an association with the SMO, and a positive one at that. In the 2026 elections in Russia, from the ruling party.
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am 100% sure that Russia will deliberately provoke European countries with these seemingly accidental incursions. It won't be every week, but once a month or once every two months, hypothetically. I doubt one will be shot down eventually; as long as it flies on a tangent—just cutting the corner—they won't shoot it down. If they fly deep inside, then that's a different matter. In response to the question: "How likely is it that Russia will also troll the Europeans with its planes? And how likely is it that sooner or later one of these planes will be shot down?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I'll make a prediction: at some point, the percentage of Shahed interceptions by drones will be 40-50%, no less.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Yes, they would. But I don't think it will come to that. In response to the question: "NATO is threatening to shoot down Russian fighter jets. Do they have the guts?"
Expected
#NATO #Russia
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Let me remind you that it is forbidden to kill people anywhere, in any state, even in diametrically opposed ones. Whether it's North Korea or France, in both places, killing is forbidden, and the state will come for you if you decide to do such a thing. Not even all states can kill—the death penalty doesn't exist everywhere. A soldier, however, is the only person to whom international humanitarian law gives an official mandate to kill. A soldier has the right to kill; moreover, it's expected of him by the authorities (as is his readiness to die). That is to say, wars are legal ways of disposing of large masses of unwanted people, which Putin has now empirically proven. If AI isn't artificially slowed down, then it's likely that before the end of this century, there will be a whole series of large and deadly conflicts. Ideally, elites want to create permanent points of conflict and tension—regions of controlled instability. In them, troublemakers, the destitute, the displaced, the unemployed, those who don't fit into the economy, and so on can be dumped and disposed of.
Expected
ru → en