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I think this war will definitely continue into next year. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I find it hard to imagine a breakthrough to the right bank of the Oskil River with the establishment of a bridgehead. Referring to Russian troops and the Oskil River in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin urgently needs to end this war. I think he needs to wait a few months. And we will see how gradually he will start to roll back... Apparently, he will manage to retain at least Donbas for some time, and the question of Crimea will likely be postponed. But Putin will begin to roll back
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

They won’t reverse course, because everything is happening too quickly, and by now it would openly look like an admission that they’ve lost politically. Withdraw Medinsky? Under what pretext? It’s too late for that. More likely, I think, they’ll actually toughen their demands. They’ll now tighten their demands even more — paradoxically, not ease them, but specifically toughen them. That’s most likely what will happen. Some things will sound more blunt, more brazen, more cynical. And going forward, one can assume that the negotiations will end in nothing. Russia will toughen its demands on Ukraine at the negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I suspect, predicting, that the right-wing is likely facing defeat in the upcoming elections in Poland.
#Poland #Elections

Negotiations are impossible. We can forget about negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be some format. Primarily with the mediation of Turkey. The format of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Were you planning a summer trip to Anapa? And already considering canceling it? Cancel the cancellation! By summer, all of Anapa's beaches will be completely cleaned of oil residue. Enormous resources are being directed towards the cleanup. Thousands of volunteers—and some non-volunteers—are working. All the sand will be sifted. The cleanup will be personally overseen by the Minister of Natural Resources, Kozlov. All this so that millions of families with children can enjoy their summer vacation in Anapa!
#Russia #Oil

Our missiles and drones—get ready—they will soon reach Siberia and the Urals. I’m repeating this, guys, be prepared, our range is doing just fine too. (Ukrainian missiles and drones.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

At this point, they have the ability to shut down YouTube... Will they do it? Honestly, I find it hard to believe... But they might start to slow it down. Regarding the blocking or slowing down of YouTube in Russia
#Russia #Internet #Censorship

I am just sure that we will see completely different prices — oil at $200, and gas at $4,000-5,000 per thousand cubic meters, and so on. The decisions being made are still leading to an escalation of the situation.
#Economy #Gas #Oil #Russia

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

I think that by summer, as I mentioned before, the fighting will subside due to limited resources.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It is clear that there will be no ceasefire. This will even be discussed until summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, Rubio is a disaster... In a couple of months, he’ll be thrown out for failing to live up to all of Trump’s illusions.
#USA

I do not believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of peace. I do not even believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Within a few months, the conflict will be frozen—I have little doubt about that. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think we’ll see Putin and Zelensky at the negotiating table anytime soon.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine

India and Pakistan: 1. They carried out strikes against each other — around 10 strikes each, with approximately 10–30 casualties on each side. 2. There is little global concern. 3. Even though they each have about 170 nuclear warheads. 4. It is believed they will exchange another one or two rounds of strikes, gradually de-escalating, and then it will all calm down. 5. This reflects the hatred between Hindus and Muslims. 6. And the unresolved territorial issue. 7. China supports Pakistan. 8. The USA, Britain, and Israel support India. 9. Islamic countries, including Turkey, support Pakistan. 10. Russia is neutral, but India has closer relations with Russia than Pakistan does. 11. The forecast: another 20 or so people may be killed, and then things will settle down.
#India #Pakistan

Many are now writing that this week will be critical, that something will be decided in the coming days. It seems to me that, logically, they should at least sign a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, it's not guaranteed — I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The war in the Middle East is expected to start, roughly speaking, immediately after Trump’s inauguration—that is, late January or early February. After that, oil prices will rise, and life in Russia will improve. If a war in the Middle East begins after Trump’s inauguration, oil prices will increase.
#Oil #Russia #Middle East

Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in US dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & Silver Gods money. Bitcoin people’s $. Take care.
#USA #Economy #Bitcoin

We’re recording this broadcast on the eve of potential negotiations. People are hoping for a ceasefire, for peace. I don’t believe in it. Let’s proceed from the assumption that it won’t happen. Speaking about the war in Ukraine and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that the U.S. and the West will not recognize the new president. They will not recognize the elections. In Georgia.
#Georgia #USA #Elections

The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward. Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia

Starting Monday, the 30-day ceasefire — in my opinion, I could be wrong — I would be very surprised if Moscow stops the fire. My logic, my understanding of the process, suggests that it won’t happen on Moscow’s part. On the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Kyiv starting May 12.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Despite Donald Trump’s efforts, it is unlikely to lead to any immediate ceasefire. At the very least, the fighting will still continue during the first few months of 2025. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We are in for the most momentous events this very week. Every single day this week will be exceptional. In just over four hours, it's zero hour. And we’ll see what happens. We are witnessing history.

And already in the winter, maybe in the spring, some real negotiations will begin. There won’t be peace yet. But some real negotiations will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Trump urged Ukraine to agree to the meeting on May 15, so it seems to me that it should take place. Referring to the meeting with Russia in Istanbul on May 15.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Turkey

Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

With a high degree of probability, Ukraine will refuse to participate in the negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Based on my calculations, our group estimated that until May, the exchange rate will remain favorable at 105-107. The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia until May 2025.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think the negotiation process will begin by spring. Talks between Russia, Ukraine, and mediators will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Zelensky agreed to negotiations in Istanbul but personally called on Putin to attend. It’s clear that Vladimir Putin himself will not go to the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

Tomorrow, May 15, there is a high likelihood that no meeting between Zelensky and Putin will take place.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

No. No, of course not. In response to the question: "Tell me, do you think Putin will come to Istanbul tomorrow or not?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

I tend to believe that Putin, of course, will not fly to Turkey. In response to the question: "What should we expect from the meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Turkey?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

To be honest, I find it hard to believe that Putin will come, because I don’t see it happening — and I think he’s afraid of direct negotiations, especially on neutral ground, where there will be no propaganda, no support, and he’ll have to sit at the same table with Zelensky. I think Putin is afraid, so I doubt he’ll come. In response to the question: "What’s your prediction? Will Putin come?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for talks with Zelensky)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

No, of course he won’t fly there. I even placed a bet on it. In response to the question: "Do you think Putin will go to Istanbul for negotiations with Zelensky?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

Putin responded during the night with his proposal for a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. We've seen Zelensky's response... Will Putin agree or not? My personal opinion is that, of course, he won’t come, and of course, nothing will happen. Putin will not come to Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

It seems to me that he is considering taking this risky step — the step of signing a truce with Ukraine. I don’t know whether he will go to Istanbul or not; I admit that he might. Of course, I agree that there’s a 99.9% chance he won’t go, but still, I allow for the possibility that it could happen. 99.9% chance that Putin will not go to the negotiations with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

The negotiations on May 15 are expected to fall through, since Putin will not attend talks with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

In my view, it is impossible to reach any kind of agreement right now. No matter what level the delegations are represented at—even if Putin himself comes, which I highly doubt—Putin has been saying from the very beginning that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate. (Putin will not attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

I don’t believe he’ll come. In response to the question: "In short, I think Putin will have to come up with something more impressive. And what can he do except act tough and show up in Istanbul on Thursday? What do you think will happen?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

Zelensky said he would personally come to Istanbul and wait there for Vladimir Putin. A strong move. Putin definitely won’t go there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

Talks in Istanbul — what’s going on? 1. Putin won’t go to Zelensky because Zelensky wants to stage a hostile show. 2. But if Trump comes, then Putin will come too.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA

When will the Russian delegation arrive in Istanbul? I don’t know who will be there. It’s unlikely that Putin will respond to such an invitation from Zelensky — “I’ll be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday in person”. Knowing the character of our Petersburg comrades, they’ll react to this with a smirk and won’t go in response to such an invitation. At most, they’ll say: “Send Arahamia, and we’ll send Vladimir Rostislavovich Medinsky”
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #Turkey

I expect a devaluation of the ruble over the May holidays.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump