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Predictions and promises monitor

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#USA

Authors
169
Predictions
473
Verified
167
Came true
62%
Complex
42%
Confident
43%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Andrey Piontkovsky

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Alex Parker Returns

Apparently, the Democrats will easily make a comeback in the 2026 congressional elections. Trump is practically burying himself.
Expected
#USA #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very important question will be preliminarily decided in Washington: Will the United States sell its weapons to European allies? I believe it will. Trump won’t be able to stand against the entire political establishment.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Theoretically, it’s possible, but practically, I think the Americans will withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict within 1–2 years. Things are heating up too seriously around Taiwan. In response to the question: "Is it possible that China, through third countries, will try to drag the US into a hot conflict with Russia in order to buy time and rearm?"
Expected
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #China #Russia #Taiwan
ru → en

Scott Bessent

Well, first off all, I will say the United States of America is never going to default.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Vladimir Milov

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I think the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed to increase sanctions, including imposing 500% tariffs on companies trading with Russia, will pass. Trump will have to accept it.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Completely came true
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Ilya Ponomarev

My forecast, based purely on intuition and general practice, is that Trump — or rather, to be more precise, the Republicans — should lose these midterm elections, and the majority in Congress should shift to the Democrats. Whether that happens or not, we’ll see.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

China will not allow the U.S. to regain its status as a global leader. It will never allow it again. And China will inevitably destroy the entire European civilization. There won’t be even the faintest hint of human freedom — it won’t leave any. China is total cyber-tyranny for everyone.
Expected
#China #USA #Europe
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

I'm not sure that the United States will unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state... That’s too radical a step. But I think the Saudis will insist on it.
Expected
#USA #Palestine #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I consider that a far-fetched scenario. I would see it as a serious mistake on Trump’s part if he tries to do it. In response to the question: "Do you think he will run for another term? Will he seek re-election?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Putin and Trump have agreed on everything — specifically, that Russian gas headed to the West will come under American control. At Russia’s border, it will be taken over by the Americans, and a new consortium will be formed. The Americans will encircle Europe: liquefied gas from the West, and pipeline gas from the East. And gas will flow through Ukraine — but not Russian gas; it will be American gas passing through Ukraine. Orban will become one of the main distributors of this gas, together with the Austrian right-wing and Fico.
Expected
#Gas #Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #Europe #Ukraine
ru → en

Win/Win

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
Completely came true
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Trump's tweet will most likely be about the conclusion of a trade deal with the PRC. In response to Trump's message: "My next TRUTH will be one of the most important and impactful I have ever issued. ENJOY!"
Did not come true
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

One shouldn’t think that if China seizes Taiwan, it will gain control of TSMC’s chip production facilities. I believe the Americans will destroy them quickly with precision strikes — China won’t get anything.
Expected
#China #Taiwan #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The electric vehicle revolution is continuing at a very rapid pace. Currently, the share of electric car sales in total car sales worldwide is around 20%, and it’s growing very quickly. For example, in the first quarter of this year, global electric car sales increased by almost a third compared to last year. This growth is primarily driven by China, where more electric cars are now sold than internal combustion engine cars. This shift is already irreversible. In a few years, electric vehicles will largely replace gasoline engines, especially in China and Europe. The United States is lagging behind in electrification.
Expected
#Science and technology #Europe #China #USA
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
Expected
#Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Win/Win

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
Did not come true
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

SpaceX runs entirely on government money, and the Starships keep crashing — crashing again and again. In the foreseeable future, mark my words, the Starship rocket cannot be certified for human flights because he simply cannot make it safe.
Expected
#USA #Science and technology #Space
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Completely came true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Whether the United States recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine or not does not depend on Zelensky — it depends on the United States. And most likely, they will recognize Crimea as Russian.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Did not come true
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Boris Pastukhov

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Here’s my prediction — Witkoff will be in prison after Trump’s term ends. Trump won’t be, but Witkoff will be behind bars for decades. If we live long enough, we’ll see it with our own eyes.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I still think that in this situation, the composition of the administration will gradually change. As we’ve discussed, some people will drop out. In their place will come increasingly polished, proper, predictable, non-confrontational Republicans — from among senators and congressmen. I think the eccentricity will gradually, step by step — not immediately — be done away with. Talking about the U.S. presidential administration.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Stepan Demura

I think it will last a long time. I get the impression that this isn’t really about a tariff war, but about a serious economic war with China. Everything else is just a formality and a tool for building a broader coalition of countries against China — economically speaking. In response to the question: "How long will the tariff war continue?"
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Trump has a mess in his head. He doesn’t even know what he wants. He sets goals at the level of a child’s whims but has no idea how to achieve them. He just throws out some slogans like “Greenland is ours,” and then they frantically start thinking about how to make that whim come true. And it turns out, there’s no way to make it happen. And to understand that it’s unfeasible, they could’ve just asked ChatGPT — even it would have said that such things don’t happen in the modern world and that it’s simply not achievable. Trump will not take full control of Greenland or annex it to the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Completely came true
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en