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This is a take that I plan to revisit in four years to post it in a thread about how Mikhail Svetov warned you about this. A beneficial political strategy for the opposing Democratic presidential candidate in the 2028 election will be a promise to publish the names of the people on the Epstein list, and an attack on the Trump administration for refusing to do so. Because that could have cast a shadow over Donald Trump himself, because they were covering for certain people who are on those lists. I can easily picture this. Moreover, I'm even willing to bet some money on it, that it will be part of the discussion in 2028 and one of the lines of attack that the left will use against Trump's supporters. Definitely.
#USA #2028 United States presidential election

When the Democrats published a dossier on the wiretapping that Nixon placed in his political opponent's headquarters, it led to Nixon's impeachment and a shake-up of the American political system. The publication of this dossier will most likely not lead to anything at all. Because that is Donald Trump's signature style. He is speaking about a U.S. National Intelligence report that there is evidence the Democratic Party deliberately created a hoax about Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election.
#USA #Trump

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join.
#USA #Russia #European Union #Oil

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia

Former Trump aide Steve Bannon said that if Trump refuses to publish the Epstein list, he will lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement. It's not just about the pedophile network and all that, but also about who rules us, right? Former Trump aide Steve Bannon said that if Trump refuses to publish the Epstein list, he will lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement. If we lose 10% of the MAGA movement right now, we will lose 40 seats in the 2026 congressional midterm elections, and then we will lose the presidency. Something tells me the list will not be published anyway.
#USA

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine

I think no, they likely won't attack. The US will certainly get involved. Answer to the question: "Do you think China will attack Taiwan?"
#Taiwan #China #USA

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

I think Mr. Mamdani will win, and this will further strengthen the far-left camp in the Democratic Party. In the 2025 New York City mayoral election
#USA #Elections

If Elon Musk's American party succeeds, I'll once again say, "Here's a man who bent the course of history to his will." But right now, I think the chances of success are minimal, while the chances that he'll cause damage, including to the values he hopes to promote with this party—that chance, I believe, is very, very high.
#USA

Yes, exactly. That's why I'm saying this law won't be passed. Responding to the comment: "The first thought that comes to mind when you start thinking about Lindsey Graham's project is, what about China, what about India?"
#USA #Russia

When it comes to the prospects of Musk creating a real political organization (specifically a party), they still seem doubtful to me. Musk could create and endlessly fund a hundred parties, but he's not a political builder: up to this point, he hasn't succeeded in forming lasting political alliances with politicians themselves or with the bureaucracy. Without such connections, there's no chance of success. Furthermore, electoral legislation is tailored to the two main parties. Musk would simply get dragged through various legal instances, and at some point, he'd get bored with it. He's already realized that political activity is detrimental to business. And when choosing between business and politics, he'll undoubtedly choose the former. You don't need a fortune teller to know that.
#USA

I said it on RBC and I'll repeat it here — there will be no "America" party named after Elon Musk. There'll be a swing, but no hit.
#USA

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I think, more likely yes. Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

I'm completely sure that as long as Sergio Gore is in the White House, Trump won't help Ukraine.
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

There is Trump, who certainly won't help, won't lift a finger, but he will most likely sell weapons to Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #USA

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
#Russia #USA

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
#Iran #USA

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
#Iran #USA #Trump

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
#Trump #USA #Iran

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
#Iran #Israel #USA

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
#Iran #USA #Israel

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
#USA #Iran #Israel

And here we can talk about the main loser in this whole story. The main loser is the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and here’s why. He actually traveled to the Middle East to negotiate with Arab regimes and did in fact reach agreements that they would give him a lot of money—not four trillion, of course, but somewhere between one and one and a half trillion he could have received. Now there are no illusions; it’s absolutely clear that he won’t get any money. Due to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
#Trump #USA #Middle East #Economy

But I think the Democrats won’t accept him into their ranks. Even if Musk says “I want to join you”, they’ll say “No, we don’t need help from Musk”. The Democratic electorate hates Musk no less than they hate Trump.
#USA

I think the conflict will only escalate. Trump won’t forgive Musk, and Musk won’t forgive Trump. These aren’t the kind of people who forgive each other.
#USA

Trump has never had an enemy like Musk. When Musk wrote in his tweet that he was the one who elected Trump, it was actually a direct admission of election interference. And when Musk threatened that in 2026 he would fund the Republicans’ opponents in the Congressional elections. Well, first of all, I want to say right away that none of the Democrats will take that money from him.
#USA

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says. The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed.
#USA #Russia

All in all, I think Trump doesn’t have much time left, because he’s clearly declining — and fast. He’s not in his best shape right now.
#Trump #USA

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending. Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill)
#USA

If someone said to me, "Michael, place a bet — who will win, Trump or Musk?" I’d say, of course, Musk.
#USA

Apparently, the Democrats will easily make a comeback in the 2026 congressional elections. Trump is practically burying himself.
#USA #Elections #Trump

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
#USA #Trump

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
#Iran #Trump #USA

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA

A very important question will be preliminarily decided in Washington: Will the United States sell its weapons to European allies? I believe it will. Trump won’t be able to stand against the entire political establishment.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Europe

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy

Theoretically, it’s possible, but practically, I think the Americans will withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict within 1–2 years. Things are heating up too seriously around Taiwan. In response to the question: "Is it possible that China, through third countries, will try to drag the US into a hot conflict with Russia in order to buy time and rearm?"
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #China #Russia #Taiwan

Well, first off all, I will say the United States of America is never going to default.
#USA #Economy

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil

I think the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed to increase sanctions, including imposing 500% tariffs on companies trading with Russia, will pass. Trump will have to accept it.
#USA #Russia #Trump

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
#USA #Trump

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
#USA #Russia #Economy

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
#USA #China #Trump #Economy

My forecast, based purely on intuition and general practice, is that Trump — or rather, to be more precise, the Republicans — should lose these midterm elections, and the majority in Congress should shift to the Democrats. Whether that happens or not, we’ll see.
#USA #Elections

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
#USA #Trump

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
#Trump #USA

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

Yes, I believe so. I'm sure a meeting between Putin and Trump will happen soon.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA

I think that if nothing happens and Zelensky doesn’t pull any stunts that seem too much for Trump, then I’m 100% sure he’ll allow the Europeans to buy American weapons for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Europe