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I predict the war will end in two months. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Baku has few doors left to enter. Reconciliation with Moscow — I'm sure that will happen soon.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon. In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions.
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly. Due to Trump's ultimatum.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be a war, and it will keep growing. Putin needs it badly, and so far, there's nothing that seems likely to stop him on this path.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power. Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting."
#Russia #Elections

I have a bad forecast. I do not expect a quick ceasefire, unlike many.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

And it seems to me that after Iran, Trump’s rhetoric toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine will change very dramatically.
#Trump #Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Iran

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I am quite sure that this will not happen. In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Right now, Nabiullina has a good position... I think she'll lower it to 17%, to 16% at most. The key rate.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The Central Bank will most likely cut the rate to 16% at its next meeting.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

So far, the Central Bank has not announced a further rate cut. I think they will extend this rate at the next meeting. This is my forecast. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

In the near future, I don’t really believe that the Central Bank of Russia will significantly lower the key interest rate.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

A meeting between Trump and Putin in Beijing is, in my opinion, impossible; there's no substance to it. In my view, it won't happen. Answer to the question: "Is a meeting between Trump and Putin possible?"
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #China

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world.
#Trump #Xi Jinping #Putin #USA #China #Russia

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And Trump also says: "We will discuss how to first and foremost cease fire". My prediction is that Putin will not agree to a truce. During the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska.
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #USA

On Friday, there will be negotiations... The next round of negotiations will fail on its own. This is a surefire prediction. Trump and Putin negotiations.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine

As of now, the way we see it, we won’t even reach a hundred by mid-summer. The ruble-to-dollar rate won’t reach 100 rubles per dollar by mid-summer.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

By August, 112-117. The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia by August 2025.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

This war will last with phases of fading... for up to three years, unfortunately. A year is certain.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don't think it will happen this week. In response to the question: "Will the meeting between Putin and Zelensky eventually take place?"
#Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #War in Ukraine

Yes, I think the meeting will take place. There have already been too many confirmations, including official ones. In response to the question: "A meeting between Putin and Trump is expected. Do you think the meeting will happen?"
#Putin #Trump #USA #Russia

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia