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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
256
Predictions
1304
Verified
453
Came true
63%
Complex
55%
Confident
49%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Putinism, having survived this war, will become stronger, tougher, and more aggressive toward its citizens. After the war in Ukraine ends, the Putin regime will grow stronger.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will, for many years—decades even—have to pay compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian cities, industries, and energy systems, and will have to make significant concessions to return to international trade and cooperate with other countries, at least partially. This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will have to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine... This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olga Romanova

Therefore, mobilization, as I understand it, is absolutely inevitable, absolutely inevitable. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

The Kremlin will hold onto Ramzan Kadyrov until the very end... Analysts are correct when they say that the fall of Kadyrov will be a precursor to Putin's own fall. This will happen sooner.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

Do not think that Margarita Simonyan’s future is cloudless. Many think so, but it’s a dangerous, heavy delusion... Long before the entire system falls, we will see the fall of Margarita Simonyan. I feel very sorry for her.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

Russia is now a country of Chinese cars. The wave of Chinese will instantly recede as soon as the country wises up, stops waging war, and immediately regains the chance to lift the curtain and move toward Europe rather than Asia. The Chinese will disappear in that same moment. By "Chinese," he is referring to Chinese-made cars.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

It is evident that, as a result of Putin's rule, there will be a strong nationalist party, with its core obviously consisting of veterans of this war. Following Putin's rule, a significant nationalist party will emerge in Russia, founded on veterans of the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Yulia Navalnaya

If I come back to Russia, I will participate in the elections as a candidate.
Expected
#Russia
en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Of course not. If it becomes absolutely critical, he may be forced to proceed. But mobilization is the last thing he would do. In response to the question: "He (Putin) won’t go for mobilization?"
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

A massive flow of truthful information is reaching Russia today, which the authorities are trying to block by every available means—and they’re failing. This alone already creates a huge foundation for the future, which I am confident will be normal, democratic, and free in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I believe that, given Putin currently has four sources for replenishing cannon fodder, there’s no need for mobilization. I think it’s unlikely to happen. Never say never—of course, it could occur—but I don’t see it happening at the moment. For Putin, mobilization is a negative move; it creates tension.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

If Putin is no longer in power, then the Caucasus will immediately, of course, separate, and that’s completely obvious. Separate from Russia
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, and this warrant will likely be expanded this year and next. This expansion will cover issues like systematic torture, imprisoning innocent individuals and coercing confessions, as well as prosecuting POWs. According to the Geneva Convention, POWs should not face criminal prosecution, as they are entitled to exchange and return home.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

A civil war in Russia is unfolding in a hidden form, and its transition to an open form is practically a foregone conclusion, inevitable. I am not thinking about how to prevent it, but rather how to win it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

So far, current and former military personnel have not yet joined these confrontations. But I think that moment isn’t far off. And when that happens, a real bloodbath will begin... Even if the country’s leadership changes tomorrow, Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine, and so on, there will still be bloodshed—perhaps on a smaller scale, more controlled, but it will happen nonetheless. Maybe I’m wrong, and let’s hope that’s the case.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

But to imagine that the Russian Federation, after parting ways with Putin, would continue his course, uphold his values, and remain loyal to him—it’s impossible. In fact, the term "forever" is perhaps the least fitting description for the current Russian statehood.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

It would be beneficial for the Americans if a pro-American force came to power in Russia, so that together they could pressure and contain China. Establishing a pro-American regime in Russia would be a reasonable goal for the Americans. I believe that, sooner or later, they will achieve this.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I don’t think that even after Putin’s physical death there will be any fundamental transformation of the regime in Russia. No, it won’t happen. Similar kinds of people will take over.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Alexander Mercouris

I think everybody now the Americans, the Europeans, the Ukrainians themselves recognize that Ukraine is losing the war. Even The Economist a few weeks ago said Ukraine is losing the war. But I I don't share any optimism about a diplomatic solution or a negotiation.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
en

Oleksiy Goncharenko

Putin's Russia will collapse, but the question is when. It could fall apart tomorrow, or it could take another 15 years. We simply don't have a clear answer on when exactly this will happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I have never seen Yulia Navalnaya as a politician, and I don't think she has any chance of becoming one.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Something tells me that the war will drag on for a long time, and there will never be any elections again.
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

If you're watching us from Russia and having trouble accessing YouTube, please watch our videos on Telegram. Subscribe to my Telegram channel, and you'll be able to see the videos there, even if YouTube gets blocked for you. Although, by the way, I don’t think that will happen, considering that after a few months, the Kremlin has started uploading its videos to Kremlin ru on YouTube again.
Expected
#YouTube #Censorship #Internet #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

In my view, her chances of getting elected are slim; in Putin's Russia, they are practically zero. Even in a post-Putin Russia, her chances won't be much higher, to be honest. On Yulia Navalny's chances of being elected president in a post-Putin Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Russia currently controls 20.7% of Ukrainian territory. Before February 23, it was 7%. These calculations were made by Forbes. However, we disagree with them because they include Crimea in both the 7% and the 20.7%, and as everyone knows, Crimea is Russia. So, 20% under Russian control is still to come. And we foresee 30%, 40%, 50%, and even 60% in the future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Honestly, I don’t think there will be permission. In response to the question: "What do you think will happen with the permission regarding long-range missiles?" (Will the U.S. grant permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory?)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

I think that this Russia has a very bleak outlook; it will not survive and will end up disintegrated.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

As for the possibility of negotiations with Putin for Trump, there is none. There is a 90% likelihood that throughout Trump's term, if he gets one, a summit meeting with Putin will not take place. It's impossible to arrange. Putin will not enter into any negotiations with Trump about ending the war, on the terms that Trump might propose.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I think "New People" is an entirely stillborn party, of no interest to anyone except the people who are part of it. It’s an utterly empty structure without ideology, without meaning, without charismatic leaders, and it will die along with the entire Putin political system, and no one will remember it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ivan Filippov

I don't believe there will be a second wave of mobilization because 24 years of Vladimir Putin’s rule have taught us that for him, appearing victorious is far more important than actually being victorious. It seems like he’s winning, it seems like everything in the country is fine—this illusion of a perfect image must remain untarnished. A second wave of mobilization would be an acknowledgment of problems.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'm confident, and I predict that Putin will intervene and resolve the issue, and everything will collapse in an instant. We'll see a smiling Kerimov and Kadyrov, wearing expensive sunglasses, hugging and kissing, saying, "That's it, we've agreed, everything is fine. We get 30 percent, he gets 70 percent. We're respectable people."
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michail Onufrienko

I'm confident that permission to use missiles deep within our territory, even the older territory recognized by the UN, will be granted. Referring to Russian territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

My personal conviction is that, at some point, Russia will inevitably face another Caucasian war. There’s a certain irony in history, that what this regime began with is what it will ultimately end with.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

And then others will come, and they will be engaged in dismantling their personality cult. This will soon be a topic many of us will be discussing on YouTube. Referring to those who will come to power in Russia after the end of Putin's current regime.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Most likely, this conflict will gradually subside... I think this situation will slowly die down. Referring to the recent situation where Kadyrov declared blood vengeance.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Kseniya Larina

When they hang Putin, I assure you, Lukashenko will be the first in line to kick the stool from under him. If Putin collapses, Lukashenko will betray him.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Putin #Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

He knows that there will be retribution. It won’t be a nuclear response, because Western politicians are responsible. They won’t escalate to a nuclear war. The response won’t be nuclear, but it will be devastating. All of Putin’s military infrastructure in Russia will be destroyed. If Putin uses nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

In short, pay attention. Kadyrov declares blood vengeance, and very strange events begin to happen in Ingushetia or with individuals connected to Ingushetia. It seems Kadyrov will continue gaining momentum because no one is stopping or restraining him... The explosion in the Caucasus is not just looming on the horizon, it feels like the situation is already starting to detonate. I think it's becoming obvious to many. Figuratively speaking: "explosion" and "detonation" refer to the intensification of tensions, not literal physical events.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

There definitely will be, just not right now. In response to the question: "Uncle Slava, will there be a second wave of mobilization?"
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Malgin

Putin has put himself in a position where he absolutely must win. However, he will not be able to win this war. He may claim some local achievements, but that will not amount to victory in light of the enormous losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en