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As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin will inevitably open up military contracts for women at some point, because he doesn’t even have enough forces — not to conquer foreign territories, but just to contain Ukraine.
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I think tomorrow the rate will be lowered to 20%, but no one will feel any better because of it :(
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Ukraine is eager to claim that after Ukraine, Putin will go after Europe — Germany, Finland, the Baltic states. That’s not the case.
#Russia #Europe #Ukraine #Putin

Putin will not agree to any conditions that would allow Ukraine to no longer fear a military invasion. He would rather give up certain settlements than agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

When it comes to Crimea, which clearly isn’t returning to Ukraine within the next decade.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

So, they won’t be lifted precisely because Crimea will not be recognized as Russian. Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted.
#Russia #European Union #Economy of Russia #Economy

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
#Russia #European Union #Economy

If Bastion starts getting blocked, a lot on the Internet will begin to go down. I don’t think it’s worth the trouble. That’s why I believe Bastion will keep working for a long time. It won’t be blocked.
#Internet #Censorship #Russia

Oil has dropped. And it most likely won’t go back up.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
#Russia #Economy

I don’t believe they’ll be unfrozen. In response to the question: "Will foreign stocks be unfrozen?"
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China

The probability is about 80 to 20 that a ceasefire will happen. There will be some kind of deal by the end of the year — maybe even sooner. Based on how I feel, it’s bound to happen. In response to the question: "Will the war end this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In February, I was in Munich and I clearly heard conversations within the American delegation and among European politicians that April 20 would definitely be the point when a truce would take place. Now it’s April 21, and it hasn’t happened. My prediction is that, in some form, we will still see something — if not a truce, then at least a freeze — before the end of the year. All sides are interested in it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
#Russia

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

The war will continue until the bitter end, until one of the sides loses the ability to resist.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

No, I don’t believe it. Putin is very much interested in the war. The longer the war goes on, the fewer questions he’ll face from his own people. In response to the question: "Do you believe Putin would be willing to stop the war, to bring it to an end?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

It’s hard to say what will happen. When will it happen? What will happen to this regime in the coming years if Putin remains in power? He will stay in power as long as he’s alive.
#Putin #Russia

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
#Russia #Trump #Economy

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

They don’t need to occupy anything. Siberia will fall into their hands absolutely for free. In 50 years — at most 50 — there simply won’t be any people left in that region of Russia... The population is shrinking, and rapidly. In 50 years, there will be no one left there... I’m 52, and my grandchildren will quite possibly witness how all of Siberia becomes Chinese. I’m absolutely sure of that. In response to the question: "Does China have enough military strength to occupy Siberia?"
#Russia #China

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

Back on the 6th–7th, that truce was nothing more than a statement. No one even tried to pretend it existed. It’s hard to predict. But I’ll probably be right if I say that in this case it will be more or less the same — we’ll see all those insane attempts to continue the assaults, just as they’ve been carried out over the past couple of years, in columns on bicycles and other motorcycles. And none of it will fit into the framework of a truce. He’s saying that the Easter truce announced by Putin won’t be observed, just like the Christmas truce in 2023 wasn’t.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

They lie absolutely shamelessly, absolutely brazenly. Andreeva claims that the Malaysian Boeing was shot down by the Ukrainians because they thought it was the presidential plane carrying Putin. It needs to be made clear that this is an outright lie. It took a very long time to get the message across that these people should not be seen or treated as journalists, and eventually, at least some sanctions were imposed on them. Why was Andreeva overlooked? I don’t know. Just a lapse. I’m optimistic about her being included under sanctions.
#Russia

Russia needs to return to the global stage. But returning while sanctions are still in place is impossible. And no one will lift the sanctions without the de-occupation of the territories.
#Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Artificial intelligence does not possess qualities such as compassion, for example. Therefore, it is impossible to fully replace judges with artificial intelligence.
#Science and technology #Russia

Easter is just a week away, even just 6 days. It’s absolutely clear that there will be no truce by that time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think that even if it’s simply Putin’s natural death and, as a result, his personal power disappears, but one of his supporters comes to power, he will still be just a little better than Putin — that’s how it seems to me. Why? Because Russia will somehow need to be rebuilt economically, and for that, it will be necessary to get out from under the sanctions... In response to the question: "After Putin's death, will someone just like him take over, or someone more reasonable?"
#Russia #Putin

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Economic sanctions don’t work, because over 25 years Putin has caused so much damage to the Russian economy that any new economic measures would simply be a continuation of Putin’s own policies. That doesn’t stop the war. The only thing that can stop the war is his defeat on the battlefield.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

It seems absolutely clear to me that there will be no repetition of the Stalinist model in post-Putin Russia. That doesn’t mean there will be liberals, I repeat. Most likely, it will be some kind of KGB-style junta with no legitimacy. And in that sense, it may become even more repressive for a certain period of time. After Putin’s departure, power in Russia is more likely to be taken by a "KGB-style junta" rather than a liberal democracy.
#Russia #Putin

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump

Many say that the Taurus missiles have a range of 500 km. But I am absolutely sure that even if Merz manages to get the Bundestag’s approval for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, they will deliver a special limited version with a range of no more than 300 km, because there is an agreement between states that missiles with a range over 300 km cannot be supplied to anyone.
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine #Russia

Kharkiv, in general, is not threatened by ground combat operations in the coming years. Yes, it has been, is, and will remain under shelling. Missiles, Shaheds, and artillery shells will keep hitting there. But as for actual ground fighting — no, Kharkiv is not facing that in the near future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

This is the Navalny syndrome. These people still see Russian citizens as those who could one day become their potential voters — something these Russian citizens will never be to them. They simply can’t understand that their political contract with Russia was broken long ago and will never be restored... They will never have positions, parliamentary mandates, or the opportunity to change this country within their physical lifetime. Talking about the Russian opposition in exile.
#Russia

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don't think he would ever say out loud that he sees Russia as an adversary, or that Putin is a war criminal. That’s completely out of the question. Trump
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA

I agree with you. In response to the remark: "I don’t know about you, but I’m sure the war won’t end this year."
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As of now, the way we see it, we won’t even reach a hundred by mid-summer. The ruble-to-dollar rate won’t reach 100 rubles per dollar by mid-summer.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

If Putin attacks Western Europe, it will be thermonuclear weapons, that's 100%. It will be tactical nuclear weapons. Because Putin will be sure that Trump won’t get involved.
#Putin #Europe #Nuclear weapons #Trump #Russia #USA

No, of course not. In response to the question: "Slava, what do you think — will your buddy Volodin be jailed?"
#Russia

The situation for the Russian Federation is more likely to worsen. Although we will see some sanctions lifted.
#Russia #USA #Economy of Russia #Economy

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine

We all understand perfectly well that no matter how much Donald Trump may wish it, if certain objectives are not achieved — and they won’t be — we can say this: until May 9th, there’s no point in even opening our mouths or thinking that any kind of ceasefire might happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia