screenshot

Predictions and promises monitor

| About
en | ru | Author Ranking

#Russia

Authors
315
Predictions
1721
Verified
629
Came true
63%
Complex
57%
Confident
48%
All Expected Expected soon New results

David Sharp

I tend to believe that there won’t be a deliberate attempt to strike during the parade. But it cannot be ruled out. Talking about possible Ukrainian attempts to strike the May 9 parade in Moscow.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Zero. In response to the question: “Some time ago, people were saying that it would all end because the front would collapse, the front would crumble, and we would take a couple of regions in no time. What are the chances that this will happen?” (That Ukraine’s front will collapse, Russia will break through, and seize more regions)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Timur Ivanov hasn’t been jailed yet. I’m sure about him — he’ll get a shorter sentence than Popov, you’ll see.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Everyone was writing about Putin, filming about Putin, talking about Putin... Everyone immediately started guessing: is this the one he’s picking as his successor? And look, Sobyanin talked to him for over half an hour — could it really be Sobyanin? I can say for sure: definitely not Sobyanin. Anyone but Sobyanin.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Maxim Katz

I think this is unlikely. I don’t see any reasons for this to start happening. I actually think it will be quite the opposite. In response to the question: “In your view, under Putin as president, are any steps toward liberalization, holding certain elections, or at least simulating them possible?”
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Win/Win

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
Expected
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, they are not possible right now. But by 2029, when Vance’s position strengthens, they will become possible. My prediction is that nothing will happen before 2029. In response to the question: “Are direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow possible now?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, there will be no mobilization. There will be no mobilization. Mobilization is not needed. Because that would mean arming the people. And an armed people are dangerous, very dangerous. In response to the question: “Will there be a mobilization?” (in Russia)
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A huge number of Russian enterprises that benefit from the state’s monopoly protection — shielding them from competition — will lose their place under the sun. The most striking example is the Russian aircraft manufacturing corporation, which is trying to produce import-independent Superjets and MC-21s that are becoming heavy, fly short distances, and have inefficient engines. In global competition, they will lose. Such companies have no future.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

By the way, such intense purges will start this summer and fall within Putin’s ranks; the heads of propagandists will roll en masse, like mushrooms sprouting.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

Many are now writing that this week will be critical, that something will be decided in the coming days. It seems to me that, logically, they should at least sign a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, it's not guaranteed — I could be wrong.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I am also confident that one day a monument to Novodvorskaya will be erected in Russia — the only dissident who fought for Russia’s true interests.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

As for Crimea, in my opinion, after 11 years of occupation, it is already clear that Crimea will never be internationally recognized as Russian territory. It will never happen. The only thing Russia can count on is the occasional whims of individual leaders.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Whether the United States recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine or not does not depend on Zelensky — it depends on the United States. And most likely, they will recognize Crimea as Russian.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

Putin will inevitably open up military contracts for women at some point, because he doesn’t even have enough forces — not to conquer foreign territories, but just to contain Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Boris Pastukhov

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Aleksandr Shtefanov

Putin will not agree to any conditions that would allow Ukraine to no longer fear a military invasion. He would rather give up certain settlements than agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Kirill Sazonov

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Bill Browder

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
Expected
#Russia #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

If Bastion starts getting blocked, a lot on the Internet will begin to go down. I don’t think it’s worth the trouble. That’s why I believe Bastion will keep working for a long time. It won’t be blocked.
Expected
#Internet #Censorship #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

The probability is about 80 to 20 that a ceasefire will happen. There will be some kind of deal by the end of the year — maybe even sooner. Based on how I feel, it’s bound to happen. In response to the question: "Will the war end this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Pivovarov

In February, I was in Munich and I clearly heard conversations within the American delegation and among European politicians that April 20 would definitely be the point when a truce would take place. Now it’s April 21, and it hasn’t happened. My prediction is that, in some form, we will still see something — if not a truce, then at least a freeze — before the end of the year. All sides are interested in it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yury Pivovarov

No, I don’t believe it. Putin is very much interested in the war. The longer the war goes on, the fewer questions he’ll face from his own people. In response to the question: "Do you believe Putin would be willing to stop the war, to bring it to an end?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Yury Pivovarov

It’s hard to say what will happen. When will it happen? What will happen to this regime in the coming years if Putin remains in power? He will stay in power as long as he’s alive.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

They don’t need to occupy anything. Siberia will fall into their hands absolutely for free. In 50 years — at most 50 — there simply won’t be any people left in that region of Russia... The population is shrinking, and rapidly. In 50 years, there will be no one left there... I’m 52, and my grandchildren will quite possibly witness how all of Siberia becomes Chinese. I’m absolutely sure of that. In response to the question: "Does China have enough military strength to occupy Siberia?"
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Andrey Rudoy

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en