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A cautious forecast—the Kursk region will be cleared of Ukrainian forces by the end of March.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Blinovskaya will likely be released earlier than the court-appointed term. She has compensated for the damages, admitted guilt (partially), and has young children. An appeal or parole will work in her favor.
#Russia

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

No, it will not end—it may pause or simply come to a halt. The war cannot end as long as Putin is in the Kremlin. It will continue in one form or another. Even if it stops in Ukraine, then Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and possibly Kazakhstan should prepare. In response to the question: "Do you think the war will end in 2025?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
#Russia #USA

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Saudi Arabia

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don't know why so many people have such wild fantasies about the return of brands, but to me, it’s completely obvious. Not a single major company or brand that shut down business in Russia will return in the next 10+ years. It's impossible. It simply won’t happen.
#Russia

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

My guest is Dmitry Valeryevich Potapenko, a well-known public figure, politician, entrepreneur, and, in recent months, a foreign agent—though I am sure that this honorary title will soon be ceremoniously lifted from Dmitry Valeryevich Potapenko.
#Russia

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin will not remove himself. This means that the war will return at some point— in four years when Trump is no longer in office.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The year 2025 is critical. If Russia does not cease active military operations this year, the total collapse of its economy will begin.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, there is still a feeling that in 2025, at the very least, the shooting will stop. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no scenario where Putin openly and publicly appoints a successor and then gradually hands over power to him.
#Putin #Russia

I am more than certain, and I am ready to compare the results later, that by the end of 2025, no matter what anyone writes or spreads, the war will not end. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

DeepState focuses on the situation in Zaporizhzhia—referring to a village on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, not the city of the same name, which Russian forces have not yet reached and most likely never will.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Another unpleasant conclusion: there will be no more exchanges of political prisoners for spies. Trump is only willing to trade for his own guys—everything else means nothing to him. Unfortunately, this is very bad news.
#USA #Russia #Trump

I am sure that it will. In response to the question: "Will the war stop, as some say, by the middle of this year or not?" (The war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Pavlo de Dur continues to spin on the French bottle. Over a million channels and chats were suddenly deleted from Telegram. This is one of the most massive purges in the history of the messenger. I am sure that Pavlo will comply with absolutely all the demands of the French intelligence services, yet he still won’t be able to avoid punishment. All the best. By "Pavlo de Dur," the author refers to Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram.
#Durov #Telegram #France #Russia #Internet #Censorship

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

I have not the slightest doubt that after Trump's meeting with Putin, he will simply adopt Putin's plan and program exactly as it is. I have absolutely no doubt about this.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

I do not believe that there will be any real negotiations in the coming months. So far, I do not see any leverage over Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

There will be no complete ban on abortions, in my opinion—knock on wood, I hope I don’t jinx it. Because, knowing Vladimir Vladimirovich’s psychology, we understand that he is a cautious person in this regard. He will not take measures that would be extremely unpopular among broad segments of his own electorate, especially among female voters. Therefore, any abortion restrictions will be very moderate.
#Russia #Putin

No one will lift the sanctions, that's 100%. It's something to simply forget about and not even think about. Talking about sanctions against Russia.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

I do not believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of peace. I do not even believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #Ukraine #USA

The situation is gradually moving toward a scenario where, in 2025, if the war does not end, a very serious battle for air superiority will likely begin in the skies over Ukraine and, most likely, over Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I am sure that if Putin's regime remains in power, in a couple of years it will be virtually impossible to legally get an abortion in any region. In Russia.
#Russia

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I absolutely do not believe that Putin will agree to stop seeking official recognition from Ukraine and its Western allies of the so-called realities on the ground. That Putin would accept a peace agreement in which he continues to de facto control these captured territories, but no one except him officially recognizes these seizures.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that changes in Russia will not happen so quickly. The construction of this regime took 25 years, and it will probably take another 25 years for Russia to return to a democratic path.
#Russia

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions.
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

Vladimir Vladimirovich has one very strong trait, a very strong one. It lies in the fact that he has transitioned from being the executive director of a joint-stock company to becoming its majority shareholder. There are both advantages and disadvantages to this. The advantage is that he will see things through to the very end, no matter what. The disadvantage is that any succession operations or transfer of power are completely impossible. Talking about Putin.
#Putin #Russia

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

It is obvious that in a month or two, the special military operation will end and peace will come.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If the pace of the offensive does not change—and, generally speaking, I personally see no reason to believe it will, referring to the Russian offensive—then, in the foreseeable future, meaning within a few months, it is clear that Putin will not achieve one of his most politically significant goals. In the coming months, the Russian army will not push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And Assad will also end up lingering in Russia; of course, Putin won’t hand him over. I don’t think they’ll be able to keep their military bases either. It won’t even be Syria deciding this issue, but rather Turkey… They don’t need Russia’s presence in Syria.
#Syria #Russia

He may play it in such a way that Zelensky himself will be blamed, but there may be no deal. There could be a deal, but it won’t result in peace, a peace treaty. Instead, the conflict will continue for another six months to a year, followed by the collapse of the front. Response to the question: "Trump won't get his deal?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Trump

If negotiations do not begin and no ceasefire is reached, another so-called partial mobilization—completely free of charge—will be announced in Russia in March.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

It is unlikely that the Russians will hand over Assad. This means they will not fulfill the main condition set by Julani. And that means they will not have bases in Tartus.
#Russia #Syria

I predict that in 2025, there will be attempts to ban WhatsApp and Telegram. In Russia.
#Censorship #Internet #Russia #Telegram

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power. Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting."
#Russia #Elections

The ones who definitely need to leave Russia are gay people. No doubt about it. Moreover, I can bet that if Putin stays for another two years, it will come to forced castration or some other insanity… Seems like fantasy? Just wait, many things happening now seemed like fantasy three years ago too.
#Russia

I myself understand that this is a war for many years. Remember, I have been saying this non-stop for the last three years. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Negotiations will undoubtedly take place; this seems obvious to me. I think we should expect them within days, any day now. I believe there will be a phone conversation. It will be interesting to observe how it is arranged. Most likely, it will be organized in such a way that Trump will call Putin.
#Russia #USA #Trump #Putin

I believe that this year the fighting in Ukraine will continue, unfortunately. I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems that within the coming months, a rotten compromise will be reached, which will please neither side... but it is far better than senseless and merciless bloodshed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I agree with you that the war will likely continue through 2025-2026. It will probably last these two years for sure. I also don’t expect it to end very quickly. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think it will last for a very long time because the one in charge of this situation is very reluctant to admit defeat. I believe it will continue until a way is found to resolve this conflict in such a way that the main instigator of this war doesn’t lose face. In response to: "Lyudmila Yevgenyevna, what do you think? How and when will this war end?" (referring to the war in Ukraine).
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, maybe "convinced" is too strong a word. But I do think, I feel, that the war won’t end. There might be a truce, but it would definitely be the kind of truce that wouldn’t close the door to war. In response to: "Let’s turn to the war then. You said you were convinced that in 2025 this war wouldn’t end, not in any way" (referring to the war in Ukraine).
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In four years, Putin will be gone—I’m willing to bet anything on it. Putin is finished. He definitely won’t last four more years.
#Putin #Russia