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Predictions and promises monitor

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#China

Authors
36
Predictions
52
Verified
12
Came true
75%
Complex
8%
Confident
25%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vyacheslav Maltsev

I’m willing to bet that this won’t happen. It absolutely won’t. This is a card that China always plays, especially frequently in recent times. In response to the question: "What do you think is the likelihood that China will follow through on its intentions and try to seize Taiwan by force?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Either something about tariffs, possibly on imports from China, or something related to crypto. In response to the question: "What will Trump’s first executive order be after the inauguration?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

Erdogan is much smarter and more farsighted than Putin. My assumption is that Erdogan’s operation in Syria will be far more successful than Putin’s operation in Ukraine. In reality, no one will be able to stop it. And most likely, Xi Jinping will follow Erdogan’s lead.
Expected
#China #Taiwan #Xi Jinping
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The elite world is shaken by the death sentence given to the head of China’s main bank, the Bank of China, for bribery. All the heads of banks around the world are trembling at this news because they know they too could be sentenced for the same reason. And so could finance ministers. But don’t worry! Officially, it’s for bribery, but in reality, it’s because he was too friendly with America. And in two years, the death sentence will quietly be commuted to life imprisonment. In the meantime, he’ll be giving testimony against others in the Chinese elite who are eager to be too friendly with America.
Expected
#China
ru → en

Alexander Pantsov

If the Chinese Communist Party loses power, China will immediately collapse. First, Tibet will declare independence. Next in line, Xinjiang will announce its independence.
Expected
#China
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

Russia is now a country of Chinese cars. The wave of Chinese will instantly recede as soon as the country wises up, stops waging war, and immediately regains the chance to lift the curtain and move toward Europe rather than Asia. The Chinese will disappear in that same moment. By "Chinese," he is referring to Chinese-made cars.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

China wants to land on the Moon by 2030 and start developing it, as we discussed before. They’ll be extracting resources from the Moon and everything else. And you’ll see—this will be 100% certain.
Expected
#China #Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

All these dreams and fantasies about turning BRICS into a military-political alliance... I can try to be absolutely categorical. I believe this idea will never materialize. I just can't imagine a military-political alliance between, say, India and China; the contradictions between them are simply too strong.
Expected
#BRICS #India #China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Well, it’s definitely moving in that direction. China is undoubtedly trying to do it. But in the end, it won't succeed. In response to the question: "China wants to build a new bipolar world. Will the Chinese leader be able to achieve this?"
Expected
#China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Dmitry Gudkov

Putin understands perfectly that the use of nuclear weapons is something that China will never support. This means that then Russia and the Kremlin will find themselves in complete global isolation. Absolute complete isolation.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #China
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

The use of nuclear weapons would immediately put him in a category of people with whom neither India nor China would be willing or able to cooperate economically. China is currently keeping Russia afloat economically. Putin and his government are practically crawling to the Chinese on their knees every year.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine #China #India
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Trump is the main advocate for fighting with China and bringing all production back to the U.S. But if the Democrats come to power, I think China's policy will very much return to a calm course of agreements on key issues with the Americans. I don't believe they will initiate any large-scale trade wars with the Democrats.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Yes, there is a painful question regarding Taiwan. Well, China has clearly seen that now is not the time to address these issues, at least not through military means. And after the example of Russia, it definitely will not go down that path. I believe it will achieve all its goals anyway. I am absolutely convinced of this. The Chinese know how to be patient. They will take Taiwan, they will take everything they need. Just not right away.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Malek Dudakov

The likelihood of a hot conflict, in my opinion, is not very high. Although there is a lot of hysteria coming from the West, claiming that war is just around the corner. But I believe that this is not in the interests of either the USA or China. Considering that a lot depends on Taiwan, which accounts for 60 percent of the global semiconductor market.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Moreover, the Chinese may provoke something in Taiwan. Most likely, they will. For example, a blockade of the island. Since the forces of the U.S. Navy and Army are far from unlimited.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
en

Igor Eidman

I think that Xi Jinping is the last dictator of this kind. Apparently, in China.
Expected
#China
ru → en

John Mearsheimer

No, I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan anytime soon. And there are a variety of reasons for that. One of the main reasons is that for him or for China to attack Taiwan it has to cross a large body of water. And amphibious operations are among the most difficult military operations you can ask an army to perform. It is very difficult to cross a body of water as large as the Taiwan straight. Answer to the question: "Do you think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan in this decade?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China
en

Uebermarginal

I highly doubt that he will sever ties with Brazil and China. Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China.
Expected
#Argentina #Brazil #China
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

No free trade with the thesis that Argentina will now cut trade relations with Brazil and China... I don't think he will implement any of this. Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China.
Expected
#Argentina #Brazil #China
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
Expected
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

Well, first of all, Taiwan is not so easy to take. Taiwan has a quite sizable army, and it is far from helpless... therefore, I think that the Chinese will not resort to a forceful solution to the issue.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

No, I don't think so. Answer to the question: "Will China attack Russia after the war?" (War in Ukraine)
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

I don't believe that Xi Jinping will come to Putin. I am sure that this is all some kind of Kremlin's sophisticated propaganda.
Did not come true
#Xi Jinping #Putin #Russia #China
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

China will not seize Taiwan. China will not get involved in a story like Putin
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

We need to wait for the results of the current Chinese congress. Xi Jinping must secure his position and be reappointed for another term... most likely, he will manage to accomplish this task.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think he will now remain in this position for the rest of his life. Xi Jinping
Expected
#Xi Jinping #China
ru → en

Sergey Guriyev

Next week, Xi Jinping will most likely be elected for another term.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

No, I don't think so; it would be foolish for the Chinese to take by force what they can achieve through peaceful means. Referring to the fact that there will be no military conflict between China and Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They will meet at the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Biden. I suspect that this will most likely end with mutual visits, first Xi Jinping to Washington, and then Biden to Beijing. This is my prediction, and I do not insist on it
Expected
#USA #China #G20
ru → en

Ivan Stupak

Right now, this will not happen... I don't see it in the next year or two. Response to the question: 'Will there be a war between China and the USA, China and Taiwan?'
Completely came true
#China #USA #Taiwan
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

With a high probability, he will be re-elected. Regarding Xi Jinping's re-election for a third term in November 2022.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

For now, I don't think China will decide on a landing operation in Taiwan. In connection with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
Completely came true
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

With a high degree of probability, I still believe that the Americans will not cancel this visit. About Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
Completely came true
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that there will be no military conflict; China will not go for it. About the threats from China if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan
Completely came true
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en