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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Trump

Authors
76
Predictions
135
Verified
45
Came true
56%
Complex
40%
Confident
38%

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Anatoly Nesmiyan

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

Donald Trump will not serve out his full term. I am more than certain that he will not be president for four years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

He has engaged in war on multiple fronts simultaneously, which, in my opinion, is a catastrophic mistake. His actions are purely impulsive. The level of his team has turned out to be absolutely abysmal. That’s why I believe he will not last until the end of his term—and maybe he won’t even survive. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
Did not come true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Yes, Trump will dismantle NATO. Let’s not have any doubts, let’s not hesitate or say, "Maybe he won’t." He will. He will.
Expected
#NATO #Trump #USA
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Another unpleasant conclusion: there will be no more exchanges of political prisoners for spies. Trump is only willing to trade for his own guys—everything else means nothing to him. Unfortunately, this is very bad news.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Ukraine must count on the fact that the world will never recognize this annexation. As for the statements that the defense minister said there can be no return to 2014—I’m sorry, but your president also said that today we cannot, we do not have the capabilities for that. But the defense minister did not say that they recognize this as Russian territory. That will not happen, you can be sure of it—that will never happen. Neither Donald Trump, nor his defense minister, nor any congressman or senator will ever say this out loud.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for Trump's statements about his peacekeeping and humanitarian mission, when he says that not only will we not start wars ourselves, but we will also end others— the one who does not participate in the war is the one who wins. This will not work for Trump, this will not work for Trump. He will not be able to end wars or avoid starting them during his four-year term.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions.
Expected
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

He may play it in such a way that Zelensky himself will be blamed, but there may be no deal. There could be a deal, but it won’t result in peace, a peace treaty. Instead, the conflict will continue for another six months to a year, followed by the collapse of the front. Response to the question: "Trump won't get his deal?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

I think that Trump and Musk won’t get along for long—that’s my prediction.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Negotiations will undoubtedly take place; this seems obvious to me. I think we should expect them within days, any day now. I believe there will be a phone conversation. It will be interesting to observe how it is arranged. Most likely, it will be organized in such a way that Trump will call Putin.
Completely came true
#Russia #USA #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

There will likely be restrictions on transferring dollars within the territory Trump declares his own. However, I currently believe this will involve a united economic system comprising Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Dollars, both cash and electronic, will only be transferable out of this system with very strict limitations.
Expected
#Dollar #Economy #USA #Canada #Mexico #Trump
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Trump commented on his recent conversation with the Danish Prime Minister and noted that he is confident the United States will eventually acquire Greenland. I think this will indeed happen. The U.S. has not expanded for over half a century because those decades were consumed by the confrontation with the socialist bloc, where everything teetered on the brink of the Cold War escalating into not just a hot war, but a nuclear one.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think, my prediction is that this issue will somehow be resolved. After all, the American establishment, which is absolutely not inclined to take responsibility for any new territories—whether it's the 51st state, Canada, or Greenland—will manage to convince Trump that such actions are entirely unnecessary at the moment. After all, Trump doesn’t make this decision alone. By the way, to annex new territories, all states would need to vote in favor. You can’t just annex territories to America like that.
Expected
#USA #Canada #Greenland #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

How will the Trump administration address this? The issue of the national debt, for example, clearly won’t be resolved by this administration. On the contrary, the debt will grow, and this might become a topic for the next administration.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

So, it seems Denmark has already given up Greenland, judging by the statements from the Danish side. The likely course of action will be as follows: a referendum will take place in the near future, Greenland will become independent, the Danes will leave, and then the Americans will take control of everything. From the perspective of international law, there will be no grounds for objection. Trump will gobble up Greenland in one go.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Zhirnov

Trump will not live to the end of his term in any case. The probability is 90%. First, he is an elderly man, turning 79 in 2025. Second, there have already been two assassination attempts on him.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The most intense reaction was to the revocation of birthright citizenship. When Trump signed this order, reports in the press claim he called birthright citizenship "ridiculous." I believe the likelihood of this order being repealed is close to 100%.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A speculative financial instrument, in my understanding, with no future beyond Donald Trump's presidential term. When the rapid collapse of this Trump-coin will begin, no one knows. It could happen on the last day of Trump's presidency or midway through his term.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

There are political forces, including the Democrats, that are undoubtedly interested in driving a wedge between Trump and Musk. I think they will inevitably fall out one way or another, or at the very least, part ways. This is because both are entirely self-sufficient personalities, both are individuals accustomed to running their businesses in their own unique ways, and both respect power. Such people cannot remain in a close alliance for long.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

In this situation, failing to reach an agreement with Trump, preventing him from fulfilling his campaign promise, essentially upsetting him, would be quite a risky move. I don’t think Putin is that unreasonable. Therefore, in terms of resolving this conflict, I view this year quite positively. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

If at some point Trump or his inner circle grows tired of Musk’s antics, they will get rid of him. I believe two bears cannot live in the same den. Sooner or later, they will part ways. After all, there can only be one person in Washington who commands the world through Twitter and other social media, and that person is Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world.
Expected
#Trump #Xi Jinping #Putin #USA #China #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think a meeting between Zelensky and Trump could take place literally the day after the inauguration, or perhaps 2–3 days later, but very, very quickly. I am convinced that Trump’s first conversation will be with Zelensky.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I bet that Musk will be devoured by Trump within the next two years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Petteri Orpo

I don't believe armed action at all, for example regarding Greenland. He does not believe that Greenland will be taken over by the US through any means during the next presidential term.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
en

Sergei Markov

The Danish authorities are in a complete panic. They’re trying to secretly reach out to Trump and ask him not to take Greenland. In exchange, they’re ready to give the U.S. everything in Greenland—any military bases, any concessions. I think Trump won’t take Greenland outright. He’ll take everything there while formally leaving Denmark’s flag flying.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #Trump #USA
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Either something about tariffs, possibly on imports from China, or something related to crypto. In response to the question: "What will Trump’s first executive order be after the inauguration?"
Did not come true
#Trump #USA #China #Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Ayder Muzhdabaev

There will be no negotiations, no ceasefire—it’s all complete nonsense. And how Trump will get himself out of this talk about ending the war in 24 hours is unclear. Naturally, Ukraine won’t just give up Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Donetsk region.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Trump’s rise to power, in particular, means that energy prices will fall because Trump promises to increase production.
Expected
#Oil #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

Trump will undoubtedly withdraw some American troops from the territories of allied countries. In his relations with NATO, Trump will emphasize the independence of European armies.
Expected
#Trump #NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

My prediction regarding his appointments is that we won’t see most of these people in the American government. The people Trump has proposed for various positions.
Did not come true
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

We will witness a grand scenario of "Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0" will unfold. The world on the brink of nuclear war, but at the last moment, Trump, not yet elected president, calls Putin, and together they save the world from catastrophe. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief.
Did not come true
#Nuclear weapons #Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Well, I don’t really believe in that scenario. Because even with the makeup of the Senate and the House of Representatives, I see that there are many supporters of continued financial and military aid to Ukraine, including within the Republican Party. In response to the question: "If it happens that after his inauguration, Trump, with a majority in both the Senate and the House, decides to either stop or significantly reduce financial aid to Ukraine to near zero, what will happen?"
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe that by Trump’s inauguration, and as a gift for the inauguration, the war in Lebanon—Israel’s war with Hezbollah—will be concluded.
Completely came true
#Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Trump
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They say that all efforts are being focused on arranging a new meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. And I think such a meeting will most likely take place.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

As a result, we will, of course, see a much lower oil price. Under Trump, following Saudi Arabia's joining of the Abraham Accords.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Trump
ru → en