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I'm still inclined to believe that he will resolve this issue somehow by the end of the year. Either he'll arrange some kind of temporary truce, or he'll go all out. Something will happen by the end of the year. You promised it in a day, but a year is already just around the corner. Trump will make some important decisions regarding the war in Ukraine by the end of the year.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine

My prediction remains the same as it was six months ago, three months ago, and a month ago — namely, that Trump will not achieve real peace in Ukraine. Putin will continue to escalate... Therefore, in 2025, I believe there will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. And even if, by some miracle, a 30-day ceasefire is agreed upon, it will be broken.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin

It’s not very important to him — to Trump. And I predict that, indeed, after stopping the hot phase of the war, he will hand over the negotiation process to the Europeans. He doesn’t need it.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Europe

I think, in the end, VOA won't be shut down but will be drastically reduced and turned into something resembling Radio Beijing during Mao's era — broadcasting Trump’s wisdom and his Brilliant Ideas around the clock in all languages. VOA = Voice of America
#USA #Trump

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

Will Trump change his position? No... We will see how he puts pressure on Turkey to open the straits as a gesture of goodwill. We will see this happen. The straits that Turkey closed at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
#Trump #Turkey #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No matter how many demands Putin makes, no matter how brazen and rude those demands are, Trump fulfills them one by one. And he will continue to fulfill them, allow me to make this prediction.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

I have not the slightest doubt that after Trump's meeting with Putin, he will simply adopt Putin's plan and program exactly as it is. I have absolutely no doubt about this.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

In this situation, failing to reach an agreement with Trump, preventing him from fulfilling his campaign promise, essentially upsetting him, would be quite a risky move. I don’t think Putin is that unreasonable. Therefore, in terms of resolving this conflict, I view this year quite positively. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin

There will be no negotiations, no ceasefire—it’s all complete nonsense. And how Trump will get himself out of this talk about ending the war in 24 hours is unclear. Naturally, Ukraine won’t just give up Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Donetsk region.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

The war in 2025, at least on the first attempt, will not be stopped. In other words, Trump and Putin will not be able to reach an agreement. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin

Well, I don’t really believe in that scenario. Because even with the makeup of the Senate and the House of Representatives, I see that there are many supporters of continued financial and military aid to Ukraine, including within the Republican Party. In response to the question: "If it happens that after his inauguration, Trump, with a majority in both the Senate and the House, decides to either stop or significantly reduce financial aid to Ukraine to near zero, what will happen?"
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA

Trump intends to lower global oil prices... I am convinced that prices will go down.
#Trump #Oil #Economy

I think there will be an attempt to reallocate funding; in other words, Trump will ask the Europeans to pay more, but I don’t think he’ll actually stop military aid. Lend-Lease is indeed an option that will be used. The Biden administration hasn’t really used this Lend-Lease mechanism—selling weapons rather than giving them. I think Trump will make use of it.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #USA

The leverage in this war is in the hands of the President of the United States. If it’s Donald Trump, then oil prices will almost certainly drop significantly—one could even say they will collapse.
#Trump #Oil #USA

I don’t see quick solutions. Trump, of course, is now saying that it’s very simple—he’ll tell Zelensky one thing, he’ll tell Putin another, and they’ll be forced to agree with him... I don’t think that even if Trump is elected, this issue will be resolved that quickly.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

If Iran and Hezbollah don’t respond with a full-scale war... They’ll wait for Trump’s defeat, which would mean Netanyahu’s defeat as well. If Trump loses the election, Netanyahu will also face defeat.
#USA #Israel #Trump

If Trump is elected... they will simply continue to support... the United States is not a dictatorship... in Congress, the overwhelming majority of senators and congressmen are in favor of continuing aid to Ukraine and opposing Putin. In the event of Trump's election as President of the United States, the policy of the United States towards Ukraine will remain the same, with continued support for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine. If he becomes president.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
#USA #Trump

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA

I think one could choose the option "will give in the coming days". Will Trump give Tomahawks to Ukraine? The four options are: 1) Yes, will give in the coming days 2) Yes, but in months, or even years 3) Will promise, but won't give 4) Won't give and will stop promising. Which option would you choose, Yury Evgenyevich?
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #USA #Russia

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now. In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?"
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now.
#USA #India #China #Trump #Economy #Oil #Russia

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
#USA #Trump

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
#Russia #Trump #Economy

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
#Economy #USA #Trump

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise. Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
#Trump #USA #Iran

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
#USA #China #Trump #Economy

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world.
#Trump #USA

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured. If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA

It’s obvious to us that Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace. (Peace between Russia and Ukraine) Peace between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything. If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK. Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA