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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
63
Predictions
127
Verified
29
Came true
66%
Complex
52%
Confident
41%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

As a result, we will, of course, see a much lower oil price. Under Trump, following Saudi Arabia's joining of the Abraham Accords.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

We can say with great confidence that taxes will remain low, and the debt will increase significantly in four years. In other words, we will have a substantially larger national debt. This is an issue the next president will have to address, and it will likely be a major debate in the next election. In four years, a significant increase in the U.S. national debt is expected.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Roman Svitan

Trump will work on lowering the price of oil, and he has the mechanisms to do it. I think the price of oil will definitely drop below 60 dollars—he’ll keep it somewhere around 60 to 50.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

So far, I don't see any significant displacement of the dollar from its status as the world's primary reserve currency.
Expected
#Dollar #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

There’s firm confidence that it will be raised. Maybe not right now, but in a year, it’ll likely go up to around 24%, so to speak. Inflation is rising. The key interest rate in Russia will be raised again.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

It’s not about Ukraine, the DPR and LPR, or Crimea; it’s about lifting sanctions. Otherwise, the Russian economy will collapse—I emphasize, it will collapse, contrary to what many experts claim. And the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that it will collapse next year. Therefore, they must ensure that sanctions are lifted or eased. To achieve this, they need a peace agreement or a truce with Ukraine that both the West and Ukraine would find acceptable enough to lift sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Russian economy will collapse in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Natalia Zubarevich

In 2025, the interest rate will most likely be reduced. As for how, by how much, and at what pace—excuse me, I’m not prepared to comment on that. The key interest rate in Russia is expected to decrease in 2025.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
Almost came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

They are already experiencing a powerful economic downturn. It's been ongoing for three years. It began in the fall of 2021, and it will continue for another 5-8 years. Referring to the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

As I understand it, sanctions will always be tied to the territories that have been newly acquired. And it’s clear that I don’t see any reason for them to be lifted, even if they sign peace ten times. In other words, we’ll be under sanctions for a very long time. Sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted anytime soon, even if Russia reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

We need to monitor the reactions of Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. These are three countries that are violators of the OPEC+ agreement. If they do not take any swift actions to reduce oil production and supply to the global market, I believe there is a high probability that the Saudi authorities will eventually turn the tap on and Saudi oil will flood the global market. It seems to me that this scenario is much more likely because, ultimately, all agreements within OPEC end up being violated. After that, the agreement collapses, and there is some stress in the market, prices drop quickly, after which they regroup and prices stabilize and start to rise.
Expected
#Oil #Saudi Arabia #Russia #Kazakhstan #Iraq #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

John Rubino

So yeah, I think home prices in the US are due to fall. But I think that what comes after what will probably be a deflationary recession of the the next year or two just because you know we've taken on so much bad debt that we have to have a recession because consumers are out of money everything's too expensive consumer spending will go down, the economy will slow down we'll have a recession we'll have an equities bare Market all of that will happen and it'll take real estate down with it.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Michael Pento

Trump tax cuts will probably go to sunset most of them. I don't think they'll agree on something but not all of them, so there's going to be a pretty big tax increase in corporations coming at the end of 2025.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Mikhail Svetov

In my opinion, after reaching 100-120 thousand, there will be a significant pullback. That's my prediction. After Bitcoin breaks through 100 thousand, there will be a significant pullback.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Right now, renting is more advantageous. Buying an apartment doesn’t make sense at the moment. Prices won’t drop. The real estate market cools down very slowly... It takes 5-7 years for the real estate market to cool off, so prices aren’t going to fall.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Yurii Romanenko

A major global economic crisis is approaching, likely next year.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
Expected
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

I think these are far from the last stages of tax increases. A tourist tax was recently introduced; if it was previously light, it is now being raised... In the Arkhangelsk region, one tax is being increased. This is a trend that will continue as long as the war goes on, that’s 100%, and most likely even after
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The dollar is the most important tool for stabilizing the global financial system... I think that for the next 20 years, nothing will change significantly. In the next 20 years, the dollar will remain the most important element of the global financial system, and its role will not change significantly.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
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