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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
98
Predictions
269
Verified
79
Came true
61%
Complex
58%
Confident
42%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Andrey Kostin

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
Completely came true June 6, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Did not come true June 6, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Completely came true June 3, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Pavel Zavalny

I am just sure that we will see completely different prices — oil at $200, and gas at $4,000-5,000 per thousand cubic meters, and so on. The decisions being made are still leading to an escalation of the situation.
Did not come true June 1, 2025
#Economy #Gas #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Robert Kiyosaki

Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in US dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & Silver Gods money. Bitcoin people’s $. Take care.
Did not come true May 30, 2025
#USA #Economy #Bitcoin
en

Mikhail Fishman

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
Did not come true May 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

A key rate reduction, I think, is something we won’t see in the next six months. In response to the question: "Should I take out a loan now or wait for the key rate to drop?"
Completely came true May 15, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Did not come true May 12, 2025
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Completely came true May 12, 2025
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Did not come true April 30, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Did not come true April 29, 2025
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Completely came true April 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true March 30, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true March 21, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
Almost came true February 28, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true February 14, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Some gas is being pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system... Nothing prevents Russia from simply stopping it. I think that is what will happen.
Partially came true January 1, 2025
#Gas #Ukraine #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year. About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Almost came true December 31, 2024
#Russia #Belarus #Germany #Poland #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

The rate will now be raised to at least 25%, maybe even 30%, and Nabiullina will have to increase it. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
Did not come true December 20, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
Almost came true December 18, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
Almost came true October 25, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
Completely came true October 25, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I am sure that it is not the limit; I think it will be 20. Response to the remark: 'The Central Bank raised the rate to 19%, and Nabiullina said that this is not the limit'
Completely came true October 25, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
Completely came true October 25, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

It will lower it, of course. That’s already clear. In response to the question: "Stocks are falling, the S&P 500 is down 4%. Will the Federal Reserve raise or lower the rate?"
Completely came true September 18, 2024
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
Completely came true September 13, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
Completely came true September 13, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Natalia Zubarevich

In 2009, during the purely economic crisis, the unemployment rate peaked at 9.5%. Now it is at 5%. Will it reach that level again? Most likely, yes. Most likely, yes.
Did not come true December 31, 2023
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Due to the closure of enterprises and the cessation of cooperation with international companies, there will be millions of new unemployed. In Russia.
Did not come true December 31, 2023
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They will trade and sell for 60 and for 30... everyone who buys. Russia will still sell oil, despite the price cap that has been introduced.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
#Russia #Oil #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar
ru → en

Eric Nayman

We will hold at this level of 41-42 until the end of the year. And next year, until the end of the war, the same. The exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar.
Did not come true December 31, 2023
#Ukraine #Economy
ru → en