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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Israel

Authors
62
Predictions
115
Verified
30
Came true
60%
Complex
70%
Confident
50%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Moreover, from Gaza (as we know, Trump has already said he reached an agreement with Egypt) at least half the population will be evacuated—and eventually all of them. Israel will not accept a single migrant; those still there—indigenous Palestinians—will be expelled from the territory.
Expected
#Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that once Netanyahu is brought before the bench of defendants in Israel—as he inevitably will be—many aspects of the October 7 events will become known following the interrogations of Netanyahu and his associates.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Kamikadze D

Turkey, together with Israel, using these rebels, threw Assad and his Russian lackeys to hell. Hmeimim and Tartus will never be Russian again.
Expected
#Syria #Russia #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Gaza Strip until he receives full guarantees that it has ceased to be a hub of hatred toward Israel and as long as there is even the slightest threat coming from there.
Expected
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, I’m not obsessed with Israel. I just believe it’s one of the last remnants of the 20th century that will disappear, just like the Soviet Union did—only with a much bigger bang.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

And then there should be a trial, an investigation, and a court ruling. However, in the case of Israeli leaders, this won’t happen, just as it won’t happen with Putin. Yes, precisely because there is a political aspect to it. Speaking about the International Criminal Court.
Expected
#Israel #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Do you think it’s realistic that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested and convicted in The Hague? To me, that seems like an absolutely improbable scenario.
Expected
#Israel #Netherlands
ru → en

Ezra Mor

There won’t be another Lebanon war because this is the last Lebanon war. The war between Israel and Lebanon.
Expected
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Alexander Baunov

If Israel finds itself in a dire, hopeless situation, then, of course, the United States will enter the war on Israel’s side, just as it did against Saddam Hussein on Kuwait’s behalf.
Expected
#Israel #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I said from the very beginning that I think the operation will end with, well, basically a genocide of all those Arabs, and there will be none of them left at all—either they’ll be driven out or the entire population of Gaza will be killed off, and Israel will annex this territory. I think, in the end, that’s what will happen. In response to the question: "How do you think Israel’s operation in Gaza will end?"
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

It's quite likely that another decade will pass, and Israel will no longer face the security issues it currently has. They will, of course, eliminate this menace—this form of radical Islamic terrorism. I believe that, in the end, the country will prevail and go on to live long and prosperously.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Most likely, it will all end up just being a freeze, as it has happened before. There will be some sort of middle ground compromise where Israeli forces, for example, will withdraw from most of Gaza, but may maintain a presence in a buffer zone to prevent new attacks by militants. The entire issue will be frozen under the pretext of restarting the negotiation process. I think this is the most realistic scenario right now. There will be a freeze in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Middle East
ru → en

Savik Shuster

Currently, there is not enough trust to say that it’s okay, even if there are 20 kilometers between us, that no one will shoot at each other. There is no confidence in that yet. I believe that sooner or later it will be achieved, perhaps in our lifetime, definitely in yours. The Israelis will understand that they live in an ocean of the Arab world, and one way or another, they need to live in harmony; otherwise, they won’t survive. Sooner or later, normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world will be achieved, leading to peaceful coexistence.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There is no attack and there will not be one. I believe it would be catastrophic for Israel, and Israel knows this too; there are not foolish people there. Answer to the question: "Do you not believe in the start of a ground operation at all?" (Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon).
Expected
#Israel #Hezbollah #Lebanon
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I don't think that Hezbollah will recover from this blow. From the elimination by Israel of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other important figures and targets.
Expected
#Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

I think it is inevitable not only during my lifetime but also during my active professional life that Israel will establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
Expected
#Israel #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Roman Dobrohotov

Israeli law enforcement agencies should already get involved in the case... whether Nevzlin will be interrogated, whether he will become an official defendant, is still unclear. But I have a feeling that everything is heading towards an interrogation and an official charge. From my personal point of view, it is quite likely that his involvement will be officially proven. Context: The FBK released an investigative film in which they accused Leonid Nevzlin of his involvement in the attack on Leonid Volkov and other individuals.
Expected
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

Iran is a more problematic story. Iran could probably strike at Israel. But after that, of course, there will be no Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

There are talks that Iran threatens to start a war if Israel begins a military operation in the Gaza Strip. If a war does start, Israel will wipe Iran and its army off the face of the earth in a matter of days. They won't even need to conduct a ground operation for that.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Yurii Romanenko

Hamas can significantly change the geopolitical landscape in this way if Israel does not completely defeat them. And I think it's unlikely that Israel will be able to completely destroy them, because it will require an operation that involves huge resources, and they will need to enter the Gaza Strip and clear everything out...
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think negotiations are underway regarding the hostages... I believe that this will not be successful. Hamas will not release these people. They will not release them.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think so. I don't see any prerequisites for a war in the Middle East. The answer to the question: "Will there be a major war in the Middle East?"
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Netanyahu really wanted this. There will be no war. Response to the question: 'Will there be a major war between Israel and Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

No, they won't attack. Answer to the question: 'Will Israel and Azerbaijan attack Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Arkady Babchenko

I believe that this time the existence of the Gaza Strip will be reduced to zero... There will be no more Gaza Strip... In what form, I do not know... There will be complete Israeli control, the Israeli army... there will be no autonomy there. I have no doubts that there will be no more Gaza Strip.
Expected
#Gaza #Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that a war between Turkey and Israel is only a matter of time. Within 2–3 years, armed clashes will begin. I am, of course, against this war.
Expected December 31, 2028
#Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It’s clear that years of war lie ahead. And how happy Putin must be that there’s less and less written about how he’s killing people in Ukraine, and all the attention is once again focused on the Middle East.
Expected December 31, 2028
#Middle East #Israel #Iran #Gaza #Lebanon
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected November 1, 2028
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

As for Gaza, I don't think so. In response to the question: "Do you think Israel will extend its sovereignty over Gaza, the West Bank, and newly controlled territories in Syria?"
Expected December 31, 2026
#Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Yaakov Kedmi

No war in the Middle East is expected in the near future because there is no one left to fight against us. Against Israel.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I am ready to bet money, or anything, that we will not see Leonid Nevzlin outside of Israel in the coming years.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

What are the possibilities for resistance? Look at how many cruise missiles Iran was launching at the beginning, and how many it launches today. There is basically no resistance. All this bravado that we hear in the informational space — it's all just blah blah blah. And no one is standing up for them. So nothing here will last long. I don't foresee any half-measures here. The war between Israel and Iran will not be long and will not involve half-measures.
Expected September 18, 2026
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel declared from day one that the goal of this war was not to overthrow the regime in Iran; we did not have such a goal. Our goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, if Iran were to truly and sincerely agree—which is unlikely—to the complete dismantling of its entire nuclear system, including the civilian part, plus disarmament, plus renunciation of missile development... Iran will not agree to dismantle its nuclear system.
Expected June 16, 2026
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel is no longer surrounded by enemies. There is a peace treaty with Egypt, there is a peace treaty with Jordan. A peace treaty with Saudi Arabia was practically already on the table, and I’m sure it will be back on the table soon.
Expected June 16, 2026
#Israel #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I can say that Israel will lose because the goals of this war — the destruction of Iran and regime change — are unattainable.
Expected June 16, 2026
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

At least they say they want to include Gaza, but what else? No, it won’t happen, don’t worry. Response to the question: "Will Israel expand its territory?"
Expected June 13, 2026
#Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

The new Syrian leadership has said nothing about reclaiming the Golan Heights. For now, they are talking about returning to the 1974 borders. Israel, in turn, states that during this period of uncertainty and transition, they will remain in the buffer zone without interfering with anyone. Moreover, they are taking full responsibility for maintaining everyone within the buffer zone. However, they will reassess the situation later. If the Syrian leadership demonstrates competence and a commitment to civilized dialogue, there will be no problem—Israel will regroup and withdraw to the 1974 borders. But this is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025. Of course, we’ll see—anything is possible, but it remains improbable.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Syria #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Within two months, we will witness attempts to remove Netanyahu from power. And, undoubtedly, if this happens, we can then say that this is the goal, the step that will inevitably lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu is removed, a Palestinian state will be established.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

If Iran and Hezbollah don’t respond with a full-scale war... They’ll wait for Trump’s defeat, which would mean Netanyahu’s defeat as well. If Trump loses the election, Netanyahu will also face defeat.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA #Israel #Trump
ru → en

Ezra Mor

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November.
Expected December 26, 2025
#Gaza #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected December 19, 2025
#Iran #Israel
ru → en