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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Israel

Authors
51
Predictions
82
Verified
24
Came true
58%
Complex
71%
Confident
46%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vitaly Dymarsky

I believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Gaza Strip until he receives full guarantees that it has ceased to be a hub of hatred toward Israel and as long as there is even the slightest threat coming from there.
Expected
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Yaakov Kedmi

No war in the Middle East is expected in the near future because there is no one left to fight against us. Against Israel.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

The new Syrian leadership has said nothing about reclaiming the Golan Heights. For now, they are talking about returning to the 1974 borders. Israel, in turn, states that during this period of uncertainty and transition, they will remain in the buffer zone without interfering with anyone. Moreover, they are taking full responsibility for maintaining everyone within the buffer zone. However, they will reassess the situation later. If the Syrian leadership demonstrates competence and a commitment to civilized dialogue, there will be no problem—Israel will regroup and withdraw to the 1974 borders. But this is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025. Of course, we’ll see—anything is possible, but it remains improbable.
Expected
#Syria #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Beliak

It is very difficult for me to understand how Netanyahu's government will survive these three major crises. Therefore, I believe there is a strong likelihood that this coalition will collapse by late February or early March, and we will then head to early elections in the summer.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

I expect a ceasefire in Gaza. I think it could happen at the beginning of the year, maybe right after Trump’s inauguration, or perhaps even by the end of this year... It seems the sides will return to a freeze.
Expected
#Gaza #Israel #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, I’m not obsessed with Israel. I just believe it’s one of the last remnants of the 20th century that will disappear, just like the Soviet Union did—only with a much bigger bang.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Within two months, we will witness attempts to remove Netanyahu from power. And, undoubtedly, if this happens, we can then say that this is the goal, the step that will inevitably lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu is removed, a Palestinian state will be established.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Within two months, we will witness attempts to remove Netanyahu from power.
Did not come true
#Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

And then there should be a trial, an investigation, and a court ruling. However, in the case of Israeli leaders, this won’t happen, just as it won’t happen with Putin. Yes, precisely because there is a political aspect to it. Speaking about the International Criminal Court.
Expected
#Israel #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Do you think it’s realistic that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested and convicted in The Hague? To me, that seems like an absolutely improbable scenario.
Expected
#Israel #Netherlands
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe that by Trump’s inauguration, and as a gift for the inauguration, the war in Lebanon—Israel’s war with Hezbollah—will be concluded.
Completely came true
#Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Trump
ru → en

Ezra Mor

There won’t be another Lebanon war because this is the last Lebanon war. The war between Israel and Lebanon.
Expected
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Alexander Baunov

If Israel finds itself in a dire, hopeless situation, then, of course, the United States will enter the war on Israel’s side, just as it did against Saddam Hussein on Kuwait’s behalf.
Expected
#Israel #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I said from the very beginning that I think the operation will end with, well, basically a genocide of all those Arabs, and there will be none of them left at all—either they’ll be driven out or the entire population of Gaza will be killed off, and Israel will annex this territory. I think, in the end, that’s what will happen. In response to the question: "How do you think Israel’s operation in Gaza will end?"
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

In my opinion, until the U.S. elections are concluded and the American stance on the Iran-Israel conflict becomes clear, Iran is unlikely to take any action, and it seems that Israel will refrain from doing so as well.
Completely came true
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

It's quite likely that another decade will pass, and Israel will no longer face the security issues it currently has. They will, of course, eliminate this menace—this form of radical Islamic terrorism. I believe that, in the end, the country will prevail and go on to live long and prosperously.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

My current prediction is that Israel will not carry out strikes against Iran... The logic that will prevail is focused on maintaining the possibility of further diplomacy between Iran and the West.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

The strike that will inevitably happen. Israel will still strike Iran. It will be a very serious and powerful strike. We can see the determination.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It’s clear that years of war lie ahead. And how happy Putin must be that there’s less and less written about how he’s killing people in Ukraine, and all the attention is once again focused on the Middle East.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Iran #Gaza #Lebanon
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Most likely, it will all end up just being a freeze, as it has happened before. There will be some sort of middle ground compromise where Israeli forces, for example, will withdraw from most of Gaza, but may maintain a presence in a buffer zone to prevent new attacks by militants. The entire issue will be frozen under the pretext of restarting the negotiation process. I think this is the most realistic scenario right now. There will be a freeze in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Middle East
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I think so, definitely. Netanyahu needs a major war. He sees that he’s not provoking anything, whether it’s the assassination of Hezbollah leadership, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, or the genocide of the Lebanese and Palestinian populations—he's not provoking Iran either. In response to the question: "Do you think Israel will strike Iran before the elections?" (Before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections)
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Savik Shuster

Currently, there is not enough trust to say that it’s okay, even if there are 20 kilometers between us, that no one will shoot at each other. There is no confidence in that yet. I believe that sooner or later it will be achieved, perhaps in our lifetime, definitely in yours. The Israelis will understand that they live in an ocean of the Arab world, and one way or another, they need to live in harmony; otherwise, they won’t survive. Sooner or later, normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world will be achieved, leading to peaceful coexistence.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One Israeli strike on Iran will follow within a few days, I believe, to ensure everything is prepared. It will lead to a tectonic shift in the Middle East.
Did not come true
#Israel #Iran #Middle East
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There is no attack and there will not be one. I believe it would be catastrophic for Israel, and Israel knows this too; there are not foolish people there. Answer to the question: "Do you not believe in the start of a ground operation at all?" (Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon).
Expected
#Israel #Hezbollah #Lebanon
ru → en

Evgeny Savostianov

So, ahead of us is the continuation of this series: Israel’s final showdown with the bad guys surrounding it. The U.S. elections are slowing things down… But after the elections, even before the final results are in—which could take weeks—I think things will move quickly. First, a war on Lebanese soil, and then strikes on Iran targeting the bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Did not come true
#Iran #Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I don't think that Hezbollah will recover from this blow. From the elimination by Israel of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other important figures and targets.
Expected
#Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

If Iran and Hezbollah don’t respond with a full-scale war... They’ll wait for Trump’s defeat, which would mean Netanyahu’s defeat as well. If Trump loses the election, Netanyahu will also face defeat.
Expected
#USA #Israel #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

If Iran and Hezbollah don’t respond with a full-scale war... They’ll wait for Trump’s defeat, which would mean Netanyahu’s defeat as well. In exchange, a nuclear deal will be signed, with the Americans leading the initiative to recognize a Palestinian state. If Trump loses the election, the U.S. will make a nuclear deal and recognize the Palestinian state.
Cannot be verified
#USA #Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Now these explosions of pagers and other devices. I think it's not a coincidence that they happened... the fact that they occurred indicates that the war is about to start in earnest. The war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Completely came true
#Israel #Hezbollah #Lebanon
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

I think it is inevitable not only during my lifetime but also during my active professional life that Israel will establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
Expected
#Israel #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Just the entire North of Israel is being shelled by Hezbollah from Lebanon... And many said that this operation is inevitable. And apparently, it really will happen. Israel's operation in Lebanon.
Completely came true
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Roman Dobrohotov

Israeli law enforcement agencies should already get involved in the case... whether Nevzlin will be interrogated, whether he will become an official defendant, is still unclear. But I have a feeling that everything is heading towards an interrogation and an official charge. From my personal point of view, it is quite likely that his involvement will be officially proven. Context: The FBK released an investigative film in which they accused Leonid Nevzlin of his involvement in the attack on Leonid Volkov and other individuals.
Expected
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I am ready to bet money, or anything, that we will not see Leonid Nevzlin outside of Israel in the coming years.
Expected
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Alexander Toporin

Today's attack on the Kursk region is, for Zelensky, nothing more than a PR move... Yermak and the entire team at Bankova understand that, any day now, a conflict will begin between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. And then, for some time, no one will remember about Ukraine. > any day now, a conflict will begin between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran
Did not come true
#Israel #Lebanon #Iran #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think so. I don't see any prerequisites for a war in the Middle East. The answer to the question: "Will there be a major war in the Middle East?"
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Netanyahu really wanted this. There will be no war. Response to the question: 'Will there be a major war between Israel and Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

Iran is a more problematic story. Iran could probably strike at Israel. But after that, of course, there will be no Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

David Sharp

The wars in the Middle East will not end for a long time... and 2024 will be a year of war. Answer to the question: 'Will we see the end of the war in the Middle East in 2024?'
Completely came true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas
ru → en

Alfred Koch

According to the finance minister's assessment, the war will last until the end of February... if there is no escalation and if Hezbollah does not come from the North... Israel will manage with Hamas and Gaza in the remaining two months - January and February. That's how I, and not just I, view this war.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Alfred Koch

No, it won't be as prolonged. In response to the question: "2023 is another war that started with Hamas's attack on Israel... will it be as prolonged as ours?" (like the war in Ukraine)
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe the conflict in Israel will come to an end. I mean in southern Israel, in the Gaza Strip. I think they will deal with Hamas... it will be over in January-February, there will be no difference. But when they say that they will be fighting for years – that won't happen.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Do we have to wait a whole year? Netanyahu won't last that long, believe me, that's for sure. In response to Nikita Vasilenko's remark: "Well, Netanyahu might wait for Trump's return."
Did not come true
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en