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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Israel

Authors
63
Predictions
117
Verified
31
Came true
58%
Complex
71%
Confident
52%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yulia Latynina

I can predict that the state of Syria will most likely no longer exist. It will be divided, to some extent, between Turkey and, perhaps, chunks of Syria, the Alawites, and the territory that Israel controls.
Expected
#Syria #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Alexander Goldfarb

Netanyahu is unpopular. He will most likely lose the next election. And he's unpopular because of his conservative agenda.
Expected
#Israel #Elections
ru → en

Ezra Mor

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November.
Expected
#Gaza #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

Moreover, from Gaza (as we know, Trump has already said he reached an agreement with Egypt) at least half the population will be evacuated—and eventually all of them. Israel will not accept a single migrant; those still there—indigenous Palestinians—will be expelled from the territory.
Expected
#Israel #Palestine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that once Netanyahu is brought before the bench of defendants in Israel—as he inevitably will be—many aspects of the October 7 events will become known following the interrogations of Netanyahu and his associates.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

What are the possibilities for resistance? Look at how many cruise missiles Iran was launching at the beginning, and how many it launches today. There is basically no resistance. All this bravado that we hear in the informational space — it's all just blah blah blah. And no one is standing up for them. So nothing here will last long. I don't foresee any half-measures here. The war between Israel and Iran will not be long and will not involve half-measures.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
Expected
#USA #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel declared from day one that the goal of this war was not to overthrow the regime in Iran; we did not have such a goal. Our goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, if Iran were to truly and sincerely agree—which is unlikely—to the complete dismantling of its entire nuclear system, including the civilian part, plus disarmament, plus renunciation of missile development... Iran will not agree to dismantle its nuclear system.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel is no longer surrounded by enemies. There is a peace treaty with Egypt, there is a peace treaty with Jordan. A peace treaty with Saudi Arabia was practically already on the table, and I’m sure it will be back on the table soon.
Expected
#Israel #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I can say that Israel will lose because the goals of this war — the destruction of Iran and regime change — are unattainable.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop. Iran's nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Look, the important forecast regarding Iran is that this won’t last long. Why? Because a ground operation is impossible. It’s not feasible because the countries are located far from each other. Who would land troops where, and how would they fight? Iran against Israel and Israel against Iran—it’s a remote war: a missile war, a drone war. There might be a special operation, but this is not a ground war. The second reason is that Israel doesn’t need Iran—it’s not planning to capture it or annex it to its territory. The current war between Israel and Iran will not last long.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

At least they say they want to include Gaza, but what else? No, it won’t happen, don’t worry. Response to the question: "Will Israel expand its territory?"
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

If Iran does not deliver a devastating strike against Israel now—one that kills many Israelis—then in two days the European Union and everyone else will gather their resolve and impose sanctions against Israel.
Did not come true
#Israel #Iran #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'll make a prediction. I believe that Iran will not succeed in inflicting very serious damage on Israel — that’s my forecast. Yes, some missiles, Shaheds, and ballistic rockets may reach Israeli territory, possibly even some military sites, but they will not cause significant damage. In the current phase of the war between Israel and Iran.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent. A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

I think so. This process is not quick. Israel has certain limitations, including with its armed forces. Iran and the Islamic world must somehow respond to the destruction of some infrastructure. Response to the question: "Do you think this will last a month?" (The war between Israel and Iran)
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Win/Win

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I still don't believe that Israel and Netanyahu will appear at the May 9th parade. I think it's some kind of hoax, planted in order to discredit the Russian authorities.
Completely came true
#Russia #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that a war between Turkey and Israel is only a matter of time. Within 2–3 years, armed clashes will begin. I am, of course, against this war.
Expected
#Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Kamikadze D

Turkey, together with Israel, using these rebels, threw Assad and his Russian lackeys to hell. Hmeimim and Tartus will never be Russian again.
Expected
#Syria #Russia #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Gaza Strip until he receives full guarantees that it has ceased to be a hub of hatred toward Israel and as long as there is even the slightest threat coming from there.
Expected
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Yaakov Kedmi

No war in the Middle East is expected in the near future because there is no one left to fight against us. Against Israel.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

The new Syrian leadership has said nothing about reclaiming the Golan Heights. For now, they are talking about returning to the 1974 borders. Israel, in turn, states that during this period of uncertainty and transition, they will remain in the buffer zone without interfering with anyone. Moreover, they are taking full responsibility for maintaining everyone within the buffer zone. However, they will reassess the situation later. If the Syrian leadership demonstrates competence and a commitment to civilized dialogue, there will be no problem—Israel will regroup and withdraw to the 1974 borders. But this is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025. Of course, we’ll see—anything is possible, but it remains improbable.
Expected
#Syria #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Beliak

It is very difficult for me to understand how Netanyahu's government will survive these three major crises. Therefore, I believe there is a strong likelihood that this coalition will collapse by late February or early March, and we will then head to early elections in the summer.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

I expect a ceasefire in Gaza. I think it could happen at the beginning of the year, maybe right after Trump’s inauguration, or perhaps even by the end of this year... It seems the sides will return to a freeze.
Almost came true
#Gaza #Israel #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, I’m not obsessed with Israel. I just believe it’s one of the last remnants of the 20th century that will disappear, just like the Soviet Union did—only with a much bigger bang.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Within two months, we will witness attempts to remove Netanyahu from power. And, undoubtedly, if this happens, we can then say that this is the goal, the step that will inevitably lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu is removed, a Palestinian state will be established.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Within two months, we will witness attempts to remove Netanyahu from power.
Did not come true
#Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

And then there should be a trial, an investigation, and a court ruling. However, in the case of Israeli leaders, this won’t happen, just as it won’t happen with Putin. Yes, precisely because there is a political aspect to it. Speaking about the International Criminal Court.
Expected
#Israel #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Do you think it’s realistic that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested and convicted in The Hague? To me, that seems like an absolutely improbable scenario.
Expected
#Israel #Netherlands
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe that by Trump’s inauguration, and as a gift for the inauguration, the war in Lebanon—Israel’s war with Hezbollah—will be concluded.
Completely came true
#Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Trump
ru → en

Ezra Mor

There won’t be another Lebanon war because this is the last Lebanon war. The war between Israel and Lebanon.
Expected
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Alexander Baunov

If Israel finds itself in a dire, hopeless situation, then, of course, the United States will enter the war on Israel’s side, just as it did against Saddam Hussein on Kuwait’s behalf.
Expected
#Israel #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I said from the very beginning that I think the operation will end with, well, basically a genocide of all those Arabs, and there will be none of them left at all—either they’ll be driven out or the entire population of Gaza will be killed off, and Israel will annex this territory. I think, in the end, that’s what will happen. In response to the question: "How do you think Israel’s operation in Gaza will end?"
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

In my opinion, until the U.S. elections are concluded and the American stance on the Iran-Israel conflict becomes clear, Iran is unlikely to take any action, and it seems that Israel will refrain from doing so as well.
Completely came true
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

It's quite likely that another decade will pass, and Israel will no longer face the security issues it currently has. They will, of course, eliminate this menace—this form of radical Islamic terrorism. I believe that, in the end, the country will prevail and go on to live long and prosperously.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

My current prediction is that Israel will not carry out strikes against Iran... The logic that will prevail is focused on maintaining the possibility of further diplomacy between Iran and the West.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

The strike that will inevitably happen. Israel will still strike Iran. It will be a very serious and powerful strike. We can see the determination.
Partially came true
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It’s clear that years of war lie ahead. And how happy Putin must be that there’s less and less written about how he’s killing people in Ukraine, and all the attention is once again focused on the Middle East.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Iran #Gaza #Lebanon
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Most likely, it will all end up just being a freeze, as it has happened before. There will be some sort of middle ground compromise where Israeli forces, for example, will withdraw from most of Gaza, but may maintain a presence in a buffer zone to prevent new attacks by militants. The entire issue will be frozen under the pretext of restarting the negotiation process. I think this is the most realistic scenario right now. There will be a freeze in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Middle East
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I think so, definitely. Netanyahu needs a major war. He sees that he’s not provoking anything, whether it’s the assassination of Hezbollah leadership, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, or the genocide of the Lebanese and Palestinian populations—he's not provoking Iran either. In response to the question: "Do you think Israel will strike Iran before the elections?" (Before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections)
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran
ru → en