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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Iran

Authors
54
Predictions
102
Verified
17
Came true
59%
Complex
71%
Confident
35%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

They all talk about the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a given… It seems to me that if they go through with it, it will guarantee the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

It's obvious that Iran is stalling, and has been for years—more than a decade. And all of this will end the way we want it to: with the physical destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, nuclear weapons, and missile systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ariel Cohen

I'm shocked when someone opens their mouth and says that we need to deal with Hamas, we need to deal with Iran, and that dismantling Iran’s enrichment system by the Iranians themselves is preferable to bombing those facilities. Iran will never, ever agree to a complete dismantling of the entire system. I’m willing to bet a bottle of whatever you name that Iran itself will not go for full dismantling. On Iran's uranium enrichment systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Sooner or later, Iran will become a nuclear power. No military operation will stop it, unless a full-scale war is waged against Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Iran will soon get this bomb with the help of North Korea and Moscow. I think they will acquire nuclear weapons unless Israel carries out preemptive strikes.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I think Iran will recover after all. I do not expect a major war there.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Iran is preparing for war with Israel, but has allowed for the possibility of refraining from attacking Israel if the UN condemns the strike on Damascus, which seems unlikely to me. This means the US must condemn the strike on Damascus. This will not happen.
Expected
#Iran #UN
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

Iran is a more problematic story. Iran could probably strike at Israel. But after that, of course, there will be no Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

There are talks that Iran threatens to start a war if Israel begins a military operation in the Gaza Strip. If a war does start, Israel will wipe Iran and its army off the face of the earth in a matter of days. They won't even need to conduct a ground operation for that.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think so. I don't see any prerequisites for a war in the Middle East. The answer to the question: "Will there be a major war in the Middle East?"
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Netanyahu really wanted this. There will be no war. Response to the question: 'Will there be a major war between Israel and Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

A hope has emerged; they will not be able to suppress this movement... I believe that it will become increasingly difficult to suppress the current wave. The wave of protests in Iran
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

So it seems that Iranian missiles will not arrive. Iran has decided to quietly back away from this disgrace. Referring to the possible supply of Iranian missiles to Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Iran #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

No, they won't attack. Answer to the question: 'Will Israel and Azerbaijan attack Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

No, I don't see such an idea from anyone, why? The answer to the question "Will the U.S. invade Iran?"
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Iran will become part of a single military-economic system (along with China) oriented towards China and will be under the Chinese umbrella, under Chinese protection. Answer to the question: "Maxim, what will happen to Iran in the future?"
Expected June 29, 2035
#Iran #China
ru → en

Darya Mitina

The next President of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be Ghalibaf. Remember this tweet. Ghalibaf Mohammad-Bagher - Iranian statesman.
Expected December 31, 2030
#Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The result will be the nuclearization of the Middle East... We should expect a nuclear Iran, and then — or perhaps even before that — a nuclear Saudi Arabia, as a consequence of today’s strikes.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Iran #Saudi Arabia #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected December 31, 2029
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Trump will never go to war with China. He won't even go to war with Iran, believe me. The most he’s capable of is fighting the Houthis. Response to the question: "Slava, what do you think, will Trump give the green light for a ground operation against China?"
Expected December 31, 2029
#USA #Iran #China #Trump
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
Expected December 31, 2028
#Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It’s clear that years of war lie ahead. And how happy Putin must be that there’s less and less written about how he’s killing people in Ukraine, and all the attention is once again focused on the Middle East.
Expected December 31, 2028
#Middle East #Israel #Iran #Gaza #Lebanon
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Let them believe that defeat is not final, that it is not capitulation. But now they will be offered a deal and asked to abandon their nuclear ambitions. They will ponder it for a long time—and most likely agree. After all, on the other side of the scale lies the bombing of Iran or actions that would remove the Ayatollahs.
Expected December 27, 2028
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected November 1, 2028
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

What are the possibilities for resistance? Look at how many cruise missiles Iran was launching at the beginning, and how many it launches today. There is basically no resistance. All this bravado that we hear in the informational space — it's all just blah blah blah. And no one is standing up for them. So nothing here will last long. I don't foresee any half-measures here. The war between Israel and Iran will not be long and will not involve half-measures.
Expected September 18, 2026
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
Expected June 21, 2026
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel declared from day one that the goal of this war was not to overthrow the regime in Iran; we did not have such a goal. Our goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, if Iran were to truly and sincerely agree—which is unlikely—to the complete dismantling of its entire nuclear system, including the civilian part, plus disarmament, plus renunciation of missile development... Iran will not agree to dismantle its nuclear system.
Expected June 16, 2026
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I can say that Israel will lose because the goals of this war — the destruction of Iran and regime change — are unattainable.
Expected June 16, 2026
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

Well, look, Iran is to blame itself. First of all, the regime will collapse soon, so to speak, any day now.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Alexander Demchenko

Don’t you have the same feeling? Because I do—that the Iranian regime won’t exist in the coming years, maybe even next year under Trump.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet.
Expected December 28, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Ezra Mor

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November.
Expected December 26, 2025
#Gaza #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
Expected December 23, 2025
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I’m not very optimistic about a regime change in Iran, because war usually serves to unite the population around the ruling authorities.
Expected December 20, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected December 19, 2025
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

And that was the key threat — that if Iran were attacked, it would block the Strait of Hormuz, halting all oil traffic, causing an oil shortage, and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Right now, this scenario is not unfolding... There is no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Expected December 13, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes.
Expected December 13, 2025
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I believe that Iran will not fall like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Assad in Syria, but will withstand this blow, consolidate, and be able to regenerate its capabilities.
Expected December 13, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected December 4, 2025
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Win/Win

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #USA
ru → en

Dina Lisnyansky

A military campaign against Iran... I am inclined to believe that such a confrontation is apparently inevitable now, meaning it will happen, and it will happen quite soon. We won't discuss exactly how soon — days, weeks, it doesn't matter. It will happen in the near future, that’s clear. As for negotiations, apparently, there will be no negotiations at this moment because those negotiations also depended on the reformist, relatively moderate wing of the phalanx in the Iranian parliament.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected September 19, 2025
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en