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Predictions and promises monitor

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#European Union

Authors
37
Predictions
50
Verified
10
Came true
60%
Complex
30%
Confident
50%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I don’t think the European Union will disappear. I believe it will shift significantly to the right. The discussion is not about its dissolution but rather about a form of modernization, a change in rules, and a shift in the elites that control the European Union. In response to the question: "How much time does the EU have left as a union of states?"
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I am not afraid of the collapse of the European Union. It seems inevitable to me, at least in the form we know it today with 27 countries. But that does not mean the end of the EU. It means that a reconfiguration will take place.
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Sergey Vakulenko

I think it is extremely unlikely. I believe such hopes, partly schadenfreude-driven, are naive and unrealistic. It will not happen. In response to the remark: "Your reasoning makes me consider an extreme scenario, such as the collapse of the European Union..."
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

It seems to me that the expansion of the European Union will pause for now. Not because Serbia cannot fulfill certain accession obligations, but because, in general, this political project is currently experiencing a crisis. I find it easier to predict that another country might leave the EU rather than Serbia being accepted into it. Response to the question: "Does Serbia have a chance to join the European Union in the coming years?"
Expected
#European Union #Serbia
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

Post-communist Ukraine was destroyed by Kuchma and Zelensky. It can no longer be restored. There will be no accession to the European Union or NATO.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

Trump will undoubtedly withdraw some American troops from the territories of allied countries. In his relations with NATO, Trump will emphasize the independence of European armies.
Expected
#Trump #NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this. There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #European Union
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

There will definitely be a war in Moldova. Of course, there will be, and it’s frightening; it’s the actions of this Maia Sandu and these lunatics from the European Union that have led to this.
Expected
#Moldova #European Union
ru → en

Slavomir Majman

I believe that sooner or later, Georgia will return to its path toward the European Union. And the West will start to forget what they didn’t like about the elections and the pre-election period there.
Expected
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

As for joining the EU and NATO, that will never happen. We just have to accept it—it will never happen. As long as this government is in place and this policy continues, it will never happen. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

And it will never be in either the European Union or NATO, especially in the current situation. You’re not planning to accept Ukraine or Georgia, so you’re going to accept Armenia with a Russian base? Who are you telling these stories to? Armenia will not be in either the EU or NATO.
Expected
#Armenia #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There is a fairly strong coalition—the Patriotic Faction, or "Patriots for Europe" faction in the European Parliament—and I believe they will recognize your elections. Referring to the "Patriots for Europe" faction in the European Parliament, which will likely recognize the 2024 elections in Georgia.
Expected
#European Union #Georgia
ru → en

Gela Vasadze

I think they will cancel it. I think they will cancel it. In response to the question: "Do I understand correctly that they might cancel the visa-free regime for Georgia?" (This most likely refers to the visa-free regime with the European Union)
Expected
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

Turkey will never become a member of Europe, at least not in our lifetime... not a part of the European Union, nor of Europe itself.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

In 2030. It's decided—Europe has already made this decision. In 2030, we will become a member of the European Union. In response to the question: "When will Armenia become part of the European Union?"
Expected
#Armenia #European Union
ru → en

Alexander Genis

Ukraine has already won. Russia has already lost the war, no matter how it ends. Because Ukraine will never again be a part of Russia... Ukraine will be part of Europe, and it will become a member of the European Union and NATO. This is an inevitable course of events; the only unknown is how much more blood it will take to get there.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am confident that in order for Ukraine to fully join the European Union, it will have to ratify the Rome Statute without any reservations. As long as this reservation remains, Ukraine will not find itself in the European Union.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
en

Sergei Markov

The elections to the European Parliament will be on June 9. The European People's Party, the party of the establishment, euro-bureaucracy, and oligarchy, will win again.
Completely came true
#European Union
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

And the EU and NATO will not accept us... Because the price for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is a war between Russia and the EU and NATO, a large war. They will not go for it.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Erdogan is trading on the domestic market, saying that we will soon be accepted into the European Union, and we will live well. Although he understands perfectly well that this will not happen. Turkey will not be accepted into the European Union.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union #Erdogan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Because in December, the question of Georgia’s candidacy for EU membership will be decided. And the chances are zero.
Completely came true
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The average European is much more concerned about the price of their food and gas, which would be beneficial for them if it were supplied directly through a pipeline from Russia. Therefore, as soon as the escalation of the conflict is reduced, the pipeline will be restored within three months, and Europe will immediately return to Russian gas in full volume. No one is dismantling the gas transportation system.
Expected
#European Union #Gas #Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Yevgeny Balitsky

I believe that the European Union is absolutely doomed. I think that this summer it will be clearly visible how NATO and the EU are disintegrating, how the single currency is falling apart. It has outlived itself.
Did not come true
#European Union #NATO
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I don't think so... As we know, the European Union does not favor countries with territorial issues... Europe prefers to have clear borders. Answer to the question: 'Kosovo is applying to the EU. Will they be accepted?
Expected
#Kosovo #European Union
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Yes, there is Latvia's position that it wants to propose to the European Union to set the price cap at 30. Well, they won't set it. Price cap on Russian oil at 30.
Completely came true
#Economy #Russia #European Union #Oil
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

Ms. Nabiullina has been included in the sanctions list by the United States, Britain, and Canada. And apparently, Europe will do the same in the near future.
Did not come true
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

And my prediction is that Hungary will bend; it will concede. It will not leave either the European Union or NATO. On Hungary's pro-Putin behavior, that it is more beneficial for them to remain in the EU than to continue supporting Putin.
Expected
#Hungary #European Union #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

But now he has 'Europe in three months.' We will freeze them now, and they will kneel; they will pressure Zelensky to sit at the negotiating table, stop supplying him with weapons, and halt economic assistance... well, that's his current plan. He will most likely fail just like with 'Kyiv in three days'. About Putin and his plans
Completely came true
#Putin #Russia #European Union #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Gas
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The 8th package of sanctions from the European Union... the U.S., the U.K., Japan... will be adopted in September if Russia attempts to annex the occupied territories... and will include a ban on issuing Schengen visas regardless of anything.
Did not come true
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that nothing will come of it. Commenting on the proposal by the Estonian Foreign Minister to ban the issuance of Schengen visas to Russians at the EU level
Completely came true
#European Union #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There will be a vote on the candidacy for EU membership, and it is clear that it will be positive for Ukraine and for Moldova.
Completely came true
#European Union #Ukraine #Moldova
ru → en