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#War in Ukraine

Authors
262
Predictions
1311
Verified
560
Came true
65%
Complex
60%
Confident
50%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Alfred Koch

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

To be fair, regarding Russia's much-vaunted 1,000 strikes per day—if they are achieved, and they most likely will be... Russia will be able to launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine simultaneously.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

And Zelensky also cares about security. He understands that stopping the war means immediate elections, immediate removal of this group from power, and the start of investigations into this group's activities after the elections.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

First, Putin says, recognize these territories and give me guarantees, and then I'll be ready to stop the hot phase of the war. He understands that if the war stops now along this line, it will lead to endless negotiations that will last decades and certainly won't result in the recognition of occupied territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

If the war doesn't stop, it will lead to the removal of democratic power in Ukraine and catastrophically increase the chances of Putin's supporters coming to power.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think they'll be thrown into active combat on Ukrainian territory. Instead, they'll likely be stationed somewhere along the borders to relieve the Russian army, so they can cover the Belgorod, Bryansk, and partially Kursk regions from potential invasions by Ukrainian forces. Answer to the comment: "Heard the news about 30,000 North Koreans being sent to the front?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

No, of course not, and it won't be able to next year either; there are no prospects for it. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia will be able to capture Kherson this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
Expected
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

My answer is, unfortunately, I don't think there will be a truce this year. Answer to the question: "Do you think there's any hope for peace or at least a truce this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think a truce will happen in 2026. Maybe it will be concluded in 2025, but in 2026 we (Russia and Ukraine) will most likely be in a state of truce.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

A Kherson counteroffensive is impossible. How would they cross the Dnieper? It's unrealistic for anyone, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army, so nothing serious is brewing on that front.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

How many more years will Putin need to achieve his goals? Putin's goals are unclear, so it's unknown. But generally, the goal that Putin is truly striving for—the destruction of Ukraine—I think he won't have enough years; that is, he will die sooner.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Putin is absolutely sick, we see that. Completely unhinged. Totally obsessed with placing the foot of the last surviving Russian soldier somewhere on the border between Ukraine and Poland, no matter the cost, no matter the human losses, no matter the reputational damage to Russia on the international stage. That will never happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Poland
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I don't think that either Ukraine or Russia will have enough strength to continue this war until 2026. I have a feeling that some kind of political process has begun—a process of understanding that this war needs to be stopped.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Lowering the conscription age and female mobilization are practically inevitable. Tentatively, if things continue this way, it may happen around October–November of this year. Is it true that there will be a female mobilization?
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Oh, that’s still a long way off. Fighting for the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration can only begin after the enemy firmly secures the defensive line of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Chasiv Yar. Only after that. Response to the question: "Are the battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk next?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army. Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I think that as long as Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine — and it has no chance of winning — it won’t attack anyone else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I don't have the feeling of a triumphant march on Sumy. The attempt to plug these gaps with convicts also turned out to be less than absolute, because the convicts, as the Prigozhin march showed, are not the most reliable followers. I think there will be a mobilization. There will be another mobilization in Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

We will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles. Please write down what I said, dear friends. What's the date today? June 8th? So, on June 8th I said that we will strike Moscow with our ballistic missiles. Please write it down. Ukraine will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vision of the future

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In the end, Ukraine — this is my prediction, and I may be wrong — I believe it will change its non-nuclear status. That’s my forecast, a long-term prediction. Because there’s no other way out.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

All he can do, at some point — and we will see this — is say that Ukraine needs to agree to the terms proposed by Moscow. Not all of them, but it must agree to the four regions. This will come up in one form or another. If you want to stop the bloodshed, if you don’t want retaliatory strikes like what happened on June 1st, you have to go, you have to swallow your pride and give up those four regions. That’s roughly the kind of message we’ll hear. This is the last line Trump will cross, I think. Trump, in one form or another, will propose that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in favor of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

After the strike on Russian airbases, Russia probably has, at most, 50 operational carriers left, including Tu-160 bombers — which the Russians are unlikely to risk using in the war against Ukraine. Well, it's hard to say.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Zygar

Everyone knows that Putin definitely doesn't want the war to end. Under no circumstances is he planning to end it. Basically, what other people want doesn't matter at all. He absolutely will not end it. That’s clear from all his internal rhetoric.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very important question will be preliminarily decided in Washington: Will the United States sell its weapons to European allies? I believe it will. Trump won’t be able to stand against the entire political establishment.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Milana Petrova

If Russia loses the war within the next 5 years — and I’m betting on it, I’m 90% confident — it will be because Russia has run out of resources, has nothing left to fight with, and its economy is in recession and decline.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Well, that’s nonsense. It’s nonsense. There will be no nuclear strike. In response to the remark: "Alarming news. U.S. citizens — the American embassy in Kyiv is urging heightened vigilance... There are reports that the Americans might be fearing a nuclear strike" (on Ukraine)
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksandr Plyushchev

Given the traditions of how the Putin state operates, most likely no one will be replaced, and even all the top officials will remain in their positions. In response to the remark: "Who is to blame for the success of Operation 'Web' by Ukraine? Who is to blame on the Russian side?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Theoretically, it’s possible, but practically, I think the Americans will withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict within 1–2 years. Things are heating up too seriously around Taiwan. In response to the question: "Is it possible that China, through third countries, will try to drag the US into a hot conflict with Russia in order to buy time and rearm?"
Expected
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #China #Russia #Taiwan
ru → en