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#War in Ukraine

Authors
263
Predictions
1324
Verified
565
Came true
65%
Complex
60%
Confident
50%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Ruslan Leviev

I think the situation will unfold as follows. Today, I expect that even though the deadline has passed, Trump will most likely say something like, "Well, we did agree with the Russian side to arrange a meeting, and in doing so, we're signaling the end of the war, so why impose sanctions now?" That is what I expect will most likely happen.
Expected
#Trump #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Arti Green

My prediction is that by the end of the year, the kill zone will become insurmountable, and it won't matter how much infantry we have there. There will simply be enough to hold the front. The infantry won't be holding it; unmanned systems will.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise. Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

And regarding the fact that many of the Z-supporters have started to rejoice "Finally, we're hitting the bridges, now we need to hit the bridges over the Dnieper River, for example, near the city of Zaporizhzhia". I believe this won't happen because there's very little point to it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

What else can he do to stop the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine? I'm afraid he doesn't have any special ideas about that. I think that after the ultimatum expires, we'll find out that the "red line" has moved somewhere further away again. That's my prediction. Maybe I'm wrong.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly. Due to Trump's ultimatum.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Win/Win

The most important thing about Trump's ultimatum isn't the ultimatum itself, but his resentment. Putin, he says, didn't even call me after my last ultimatum. Overall, the sanctions aren't that great; to implement them, you'd have to fight not only Russia but the entire world except the West. Most likely, Trump won't introduce new duties, but will simply exit the game. He'll say, "I threatened and threatened, but they're not scared. I don't want to be friends with the Russians." He'll become friends with Zelenskyy instead.
Expected
#USA #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don't think what's happening in Istanbul can be considered a step towards peace in any way. As for a high-level meeting, it won't happen in the format proposed by Ukraine. Russia won't agree to Ukraine's proposal for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin
ru → en

Alfred Koch

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

To be fair, regarding Russia's much-vaunted 1,000 strikes per day—if they are achieved, and they most likely will be... Russia will be able to launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine simultaneously.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

And Zelensky also cares about security. He understands that stopping the war means immediate elections, immediate removal of this group from power, and the start of investigations into this group's activities after the elections.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

First, Putin says, recognize these territories and give me guarantees, and then I'll be ready to stop the hot phase of the war. He understands that if the war stops now along this line, it will lead to endless negotiations that will last decades and certainly won't result in the recognition of occupied territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

If the war doesn't stop, it will lead to the removal of democratic power in Ukraine and catastrophically increase the chances of Putin's supporters coming to power.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think they'll be thrown into active combat on Ukrainian territory. Instead, they'll likely be stationed somewhere along the borders to relieve the Russian army, so they can cover the Belgorod, Bryansk, and partially Kursk regions from potential invasions by Ukrainian forces. Answer to the comment: "Heard the news about 30,000 North Koreans being sent to the front?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

No, of course not, and it won't be able to next year either; there are no prospects for it. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia will be able to capture Kherson this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
Expected
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

My answer is, unfortunately, I don't think there will be a truce this year. Answer to the question: "Do you think there's any hope for peace or at least a truce this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think a truce will happen in 2026. Maybe it will be concluded in 2025, but in 2026 we (Russia and Ukraine) will most likely be in a state of truce.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

A Kherson counteroffensive is impossible. How would they cross the Dnieper? It's unrealistic for anyone, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army, so nothing serious is brewing on that front.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

How many more years will Putin need to achieve his goals? Putin's goals are unclear, so it's unknown. But generally, the goal that Putin is truly striving for—the destruction of Ukraine—I think he won't have enough years; that is, he will die sooner.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Putin is absolutely sick, we see that. Completely unhinged. Totally obsessed with placing the foot of the last surviving Russian soldier somewhere on the border between Ukraine and Poland, no matter the cost, no matter the human losses, no matter the reputational damage to Russia on the international stage. That will never happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Poland
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I don't think that either Ukraine or Russia will have enough strength to continue this war until 2026. I have a feeling that some kind of political process has begun—a process of understanding that this war needs to be stopped.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Lowering the conscription age and female mobilization are practically inevitable. Tentatively, if things continue this way, it may happen around October–November of this year. Is it true that there will be a female mobilization?
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Oh, that’s still a long way off. Fighting for the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration can only begin after the enemy firmly secures the defensive line of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Chasiv Yar. Only after that. Response to the question: "Are the battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk next?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army. Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I think that as long as Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine — and it has no chance of winning — it won’t attack anyone else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I don't have the feeling of a triumphant march on Sumy. The attempt to plug these gaps with convicts also turned out to be less than absolute, because the convicts, as the Prigozhin march showed, are not the most reliable followers. I think there will be a mobilization. There will be another mobilization in Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

We will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles. Please write down what I said, dear friends. What's the date today? June 8th? So, on June 8th I said that we will strike Moscow with our ballistic missiles. Please write it down. Ukraine will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vision of the future

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In the end, Ukraine — this is my prediction, and I may be wrong — I believe it will change its non-nuclear status. That’s my forecast, a long-term prediction. Because there’s no other way out.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

All he can do, at some point — and we will see this — is say that Ukraine needs to agree to the terms proposed by Moscow. Not all of them, but it must agree to the four regions. This will come up in one form or another. If you want to stop the bloodshed, if you don’t want retaliatory strikes like what happened on June 1st, you have to go, you have to swallow your pride and give up those four regions. That’s roughly the kind of message we’ll hear. This is the last line Trump will cross, I think. Trump, in one form or another, will propose that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in favor of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en