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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Belarus

Authors
40
Predictions
58
Verified
12
Came true
42%
Complex
58%
Confident
58%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Sergey Smirnov

I think we should expect them from Belarus, but not from Russia. In response to the question: "Should we expect more exchanges with Belarus and the Russian Federation?" (Exchanges of political prisoners)
Expected
#Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I don’t think Tikhanovsky will emerge as a major leader or revolutionary Prometheus—it’s unlikely to happen. I believe Maria Kolesnikova is more capable of that.
Expected
#Belarus
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No. Thanks to Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, his remarkable intellect, and his exceptional diplomatic and strategic foresight, Belarus will not get involved. He is maneuvering between Scylla and Charybdis. In response to the question: "Will Belarus get drawn into the conflict?" (referring to the war in Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Belarus #Lukashenko
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

It seems to me that Alexander Lukashenko will do everything possible to step down this year. Where he will go, how, and on what terms is debatable. But I believe we are witnessing the final period of Lukashenko's rule. As a leading political figure, he can no longer be taken into serious account.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Oleksiy Goncharenko

I think that sooner or later a warrant for Lukashenko will appear, if not for this case, then for something else. Lukashenko has done so many things that a warrant is inevitable. An ICC warrant.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Lukashenko, a man who has been in power for 30 years... I am firmly convinced that he will outlast Putin. Because, in terms of maneuvering skills—being practically in Putin’s back pocket, 1000 percent dependent on him—he still manages to create room to maneuver for himself.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I think no one doubted that Lukashenko would rule Belarus until his own end. He will not leave the office of president as a result of elections.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

It’s fairly obvious that, like Putin, Lukashenko will only leave his throne upon physical death. For both Putin and Lukashenko, losing power is essentially equivalent to physical death or a long prison sentence.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Alexander Friedman

For various reasons, including Lukashenko's age, health, and general questions about the mechanism of power transfer, these elections will most likely be the last presidential elections in Lukashenko's career.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Alexander Friedman

I think Lukashenko’s minimum goal is to show a better result than Putin did in his elections, meaning it has to be over 87%. I believe he will even aim for 90%, and I think they will easily fabricate that 90% for him without much trouble.
Almost came true
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

He will leave when he dies, or when he is overthrown. But I think he is more likely to die than be overthrown. In response to the question: "When will Lukashenko step down?"
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

There will be no peaceful exit. That’s the horror of any totalitarianism—there’s no peaceful way out. Of course, there will be no peaceful departure. Referring to Lukashenko.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Alexander Rykov

I believe the dictator will try to hold on to his seat until he can no longer stand because, for him, leaving power would mean losing the purpose of his life. For 30 years, he has been a "great ruler"... I don't believe he will step down voluntarily. Lukashenko will not leave power on his own.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Kseniya Larina

When they hang Putin, I assure you, Lukashenko will be the first in line to kick the stool from under him. If Putin collapses, Lukashenko will betray him.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Putin #Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

We are closely monitoring the situation in Belarus. Ukraine will not interfere. This is the task of the Belarusian people. There will be no invasion of Ukraine into the territory of Belarus
Expected
#Ukraine #Belarus #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I don't think so. They won't go there. Response to the question: "Will the Ukrainian army liberate Belarus?
Expected
#Belarus #Ukraine
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

Lukashenko will end along with Putin. And even if the regime in Russia persists, I believe that this regime will not be able to hold onto Belarus.
Expected
#Belarus #Lukashenko #Putin
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I state, with full responsibility, that no later than September of this year, nuclear strikes will be launched from Belarus against Lithuania and Poland if the West does not take preventive actions in this regard.
Did not come true
#Nuclear weapons #Belarus #Poland #Lithuania
ru → en

Andrey Karaulov

Lukashenko will never pardon Sofia Sapega; moreover, she will serve her full sentence, from bell to bell. Knowing Russia well, Lukashenko cannot—and will not—create a precedent. Let it be a lesson to the Russians! To run for office, criticize, incite, condemn... For all foreigners—double sentences!
Did not come true
#Lukashenko #Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

I think there will be some kind of strike from the territory of Belarus. I don't believe it will be Lukashenko's troops; he is not as much of an idiot as his comrades sitting in the Kremlin... But I have no doubt that the Russians can use the territory of Belarus... As for the fact that they will carry out some kind of provocation, well, you don't need to be a fortune teller to see that
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

A person who prohibits launching Russian missiles from the territory of Belarus cannot direct his army somewhere, as it will most likely turn its weapons against him. About Lukashenko and the Belarusian army, which will turn its weapons against him if he directs them to Ukraine
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Lukashenko
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think they definitely won't reach an agreement there... There is no benefit for Ukraine in this. About the transportation of grain from Ukraine through Belarus.
Completely came true
#Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

I do not rule out that there will be a renewed attempt to invade from Belarus... the likelihood of the Belarusian army's participation is extremely low... but I do allow for the use of Belarus as a staging ground by Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Ukraine
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

On one hand, it is clear that there will be no offensive; it is simply not realistic... to ensure a successful offensive from Belarus. There will be no offensive from the territory of Belarus.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I don't see any prerequisites for that at the moment. Answer to the question: 'Will Belarus become part of Russia?'
Expected
#Belarus #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

As soon as the Putin regime truly collapses... I think there will be a domino effect, yes, at the very least, Lukashenko's regime will completely fall.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Yigal Levin

I think that in the end he will be drawn into the war; the chances are not high right now, meaning it won't happen tomorrow. Answer to the question: "Will Lukashenko wriggle out of it this time?"
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

When military actions will be transferred to the territory of Belarus, and they will be transferred there at some point
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

There are many arguments that suggest the likelihood of Belarusians allowing themselves to be drawn into this situation is quite low.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en

Ivan Stupak

The question of the Belarusian army's invasion is becoming less and less likely with each passing day. Response to the question: 'Will the Belarusian army invade Ukraine?'
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I don't think so. I believe that the balance is leaning towards Belarus not participating. About the possibility of the direct involvement of Belarusian armed forces in the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year. About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Almost came true
#Russia #Belarus #Germany #Poland #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He is just pretending... he will not give weapons to the people... he will not give them weapons, he will not. Lukashenko will not provide Belarusians with weapons in the context of creating a people's militia
Completely came true
#Belarus #Lukashenko
ru → en