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Predictions and promises monitor

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Oleg Zhdanov

Military analyst, blogger (Ukraine)

Predictions
35
Verified
19
Came true
79%
Complex
42%
Confident
32%
Rating
6.6
All Expected Expected soon New results

Oleg Zhdanov

I believe that the first place this wave of national liberation movements will ignite is the Caucasus, which will lead to the collapse—maybe not complete, but definitely a collapse—of the Rashist Federation. Referring to Russia as the "Rashist Federation".
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

And Storm Shadows will be there, and ATACMS will be there... I don't think there will be permission for their use. We have reached the point where the interests of the U.S. and Ukraine are starting to diverge. The U.S. will not allow the use of long-range weapons deep into Russian territory
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think that mobilization will have to be announced. Either they will have to make compromises, but this will most likely be without Putin. Answer to the question: 'Your prediction, Oleg Vladimirovich... will Putin have to announce mobilization?'
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Iran announced that they have developed a long-range cruise missile capable of flying 1,650 km... Will this missile appear in the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the near future? I don't think so.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Iran #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think he will now remain in this position for the rest of his life. Xi Jinping
Expected
#Xi Jinping #China
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think they might hold out for another week or two, no more. About the right-bank grouping of Russian troops in Kherson Region
Partially came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Well, I think visas will be granted. For Lavrov to visit the UN General Assembly
Completely came true
#Russia #UN
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

The likelihood is very high that we will not be accepted into NATO Ukraine
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Or there is the option that some analysts, including in the U.S., predict. The war may drag on until spring, and in the worst-case scenario, it may last until autumn 2023... The best prediction is the end of the war in winter, the average is spring, and the worst is autumn of next year.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Regarding the idea that the liberation of Kherson is far off, I do not share that point of view... yes, it is not a matter of tomorrow, and not a matter of the coming week... but it is not a matter of the New Year or deep autumn
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I don't think they... this is blackmail, this is bluffing, but it is very dangerous. About the possibilities of Russia blowing up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think that in the next week we are unlikely to see anything... closer to the end of the month, it is quite possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may attempt to initiate counteroffensive actions or a counteroffensive in one of the directions
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I don't think so. I believe that the balance is leaning towards Belarus not participating. About the possibility of the direct involvement of Belarusian armed forces in the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Let's take a risk; I think that the 8th package could, hypothetically, still include a gas embargo. The 8th package of sanctions against Russia
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think zero percent. Why? Because a general mobilization could trigger a social explosion in Russia. Response to the question: 'What percentage do you give that Putin might declare a general mobilization?'
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

We do not anticipate an offensive on Dnipro at all... there is currently no direct threat of invasion or attack on Dnipro.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

A landing operation is a hundred percent out of the question, a hundred percent. Regarding the possible actions of the Russian army if it goes towards Kryvyi Rih.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

This threat is practically zero, both for Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Mykolaiv; it is practically zero. The threat of a breakthrough by Russian troops.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

For now, I don't think China will decide on a landing operation in Taiwan. In connection with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
Completely came true
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Of course, they will provide them. It's just a matter of time. West will provide Ukraine with missiles with a range of 300 km.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

There are several scenarios that could occur as a result of the military defeat of the Russian armed forces on Ukrainian territory. A quiet palace coup could happen... and a revolution or civil war within Russia itself is also possible, which would be the worst outcome and the least favorable for Western countries
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I can say for sure that by all indications, Putin will not leave; he will not leave on his own, he will sit in that chair until his last breath.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

These are not negotiations at all, and they will lead to nothing; there will be no results. The most that will happen is an exchange of positions. About negotiations at the very beginning of the war.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en