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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy of Russia

Authors
32
Predictions
77
Verified
20
Came true
60%
Complex
70%
Confident
35%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

I think these are far from the last stages of tax increases. A tourist tax was recently introduced; if it was previously light, it is now being raised... In the Arkhangelsk region, one tax is being increased. This is a trend that will continue as long as the war goes on, that’s 100%, and most likely even after
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
Expected
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

And he hopes to shout to the Germans in this way, hoping that they will move this train and get it out of the deadlock. I doubt it. It's "too late to drink Borjomi". About Putin and his attempts to launch Nord Stream 2 and other efforts to push his interests in Europe.
Expected
#Gas #Russia #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
Expected December 31, 2039
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Right now, renting is more advantageous. Buying an apartment doesn’t make sense at the moment. Prices won’t drop. The real estate market cools down very slowly... It takes 5-7 years for the real estate market to cool off, so prices aren’t going to fall.
Expected December 31, 2031
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

As I understand it, sanctions will always be tied to the territories that have been newly acquired. And it’s clear that I don’t see any reason for them to be lifted, even if they sign peace ten times. In other words, we’ll be under sanctions for a very long time. Sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted anytime soon, even if Russia reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

There’s firm confidence that it will be raised. Maybe not right now, but in a year, it’ll likely go up to around 24%, so to speak. Inflation is rising. The key interest rate in Russia will be raised again.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

It’s not about Ukraine, the DPR and LPR, or Crimea; it’s about lifting sanctions. Otherwise, the Russian economy will collapse—I emphasize, it will collapse, contrary to what many experts claim. And the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that it will collapse next year. Therefore, they must ensure that sanctions are lifted or eased. To achieve this, they need a peace agreement or a truce with Ukraine that both the West and Ukraine would find acceptable enough to lift sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Russian economy will collapse in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Natalia Zubarevich

In 2025, the interest rate will most likely be reduced. As for how, by how much, and at what pace—excuse me, I’m not prepared to comment on that. The key interest rate in Russia is expected to decrease in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
Expected September 23, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

A key rate reduction, I think, is something we won’t see in the next six months. In response to the question: "Should I take out a loan now or wait for the key rate to drop?"
Expected May 16, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
Expected March 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Expected December 31, 2024
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
Expected December 31, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
Expected December 20, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
Expected November 30, 2024
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en