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Predictions and promises monitor

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#European Union

Authors
37
Predictions
52
Verified
10
Came true
60%
Complex
30%
Confident
50%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I am not afraid of the collapse of the European Union. It seems inevitable to me, at least in the form we know it today with 27 countries. But that does not mean the end of the EU. It means that a reconfiguration will take place.
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Sergey Vakulenko

I think it is extremely unlikely. I believe such hopes, partly schadenfreude-driven, are naive and unrealistic. It will not happen. In response to the remark: "Your reasoning makes me consider an extreme scenario, such as the collapse of the European Union..."
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

Post-communist Ukraine was destroyed by Kuchma and Zelensky. It can no longer be restored. There will be no accession to the European Union or NATO.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

There will definitely be a war in Moldova. Of course, there will be, and it’s frightening; it’s the actions of this Maia Sandu and these lunatics from the European Union that have led to this.
Expected
#Moldova #European Union
ru → en

Slavomir Majman

I believe that sooner or later, Georgia will return to its path toward the European Union. And the West will start to forget what they didn’t like about the elections and the pre-election period there.
Expected
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

As for joining the EU and NATO, that will never happen. We just have to accept it—it will never happen. As long as this government is in place and this policy continues, it will never happen. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

And it will never be in either the European Union or NATO, especially in the current situation. You’re not planning to accept Ukraine or Georgia, so you’re going to accept Armenia with a Russian base? Who are you telling these stories to? Armenia will not be in either the EU or NATO.
Expected
#Armenia #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Gela Vasadze

I think they will cancel it. I think they will cancel it. In response to the question: "Do I understand correctly that they might cancel the visa-free regime for Georgia?" (This most likely refers to the visa-free regime with the European Union)
Expected
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

Turkey will never become a member of Europe, at least not in our lifetime... not a part of the European Union, nor of Europe itself.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union
ru → en

Alexander Genis

Ukraine has already won. Russia has already lost the war, no matter how it ends. Because Ukraine will never again be a part of Russia... Ukraine will be part of Europe, and it will become a member of the European Union and NATO. This is an inevitable course of events; the only unknown is how much more blood it will take to get there.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am confident that in order for Ukraine to fully join the European Union, it will have to ratify the Rome Statute without any reservations. As long as this reservation remains, Ukraine will not find itself in the European Union.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

And the EU and NATO will not accept us... Because the price for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is a war between Russia and the EU and NATO, a large war. They will not go for it.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

And my prediction is that Hungary will bend; it will concede. It will not leave either the European Union or NATO. On Hungary's pro-Putin behavior, that it is more beneficial for them to remain in the EU than to continue supporting Putin.
Expected
#Hungary #European Union #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The average European is much more concerned about the price of their food and gas, which would be beneficial for them if it were supplied directly through a pipeline from Russia. Therefore, as soon as the escalation of the conflict is reduced, the pipeline will be restored within three months, and Europe will immediately return to Russian gas in full volume. No one is dismantling the gas transportation system.
Expected
#European Union #Gas #Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I don't think so... As we know, the European Union does not favor countries with territorial issues... Europe prefers to have clear borders. Answer to the question: 'Kosovo is applying to the EU. Will they be accepted?
Expected
#Kosovo #European Union
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Erdogan is trading on the domestic market, saying that we will soon be accepted into the European Union, and we will live well. Although he understands perfectly well that this will not happen. Turkey will not be accepted into the European Union.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union #Erdogan
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

It seems to me that the expansion of the European Union will pause for now. Not because Serbia cannot fulfill certain accession obligations, but because, in general, this political project is currently experiencing a crisis. I find it easier to predict that another country might leave the EU rather than Serbia being accepted into it. Response to the question: "Does Serbia have a chance to join the European Union in the coming years?"
Expected December 31, 2035
#European Union #Serbia
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

And we have no objective reasons today to believe that we will join the European Union in the next 10 years.
Expected December 31, 2034
#Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

In 2030. It's decided—Europe has already made this decision. In 2030, we will become a member of the European Union. In response to the question: "When will Armenia become part of the European Union?"
Expected December 31, 2030
#Armenia #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

No, they definitely won’t go for it. In response to the remark: "Turkey’s leader Erdoğan is trying to take advantage of the moment, saying that the EU cannot solve security problems without him, so Turkey must urgently be admitted to the European Union. I hope the EU won’t take such a risky step."
Expected December 31, 2029
#Turkey #European Union
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I don’t think the European Union will disappear. I believe it will shift significantly to the right. The discussion is not about its dissolution but rather about a form of modernization, a change in rules, and a shift in the elites that control the European Union. In response to the question: "How much time does the EU have left as a union of states?"
Expected December 31, 2029
#European Union
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

Trump will undoubtedly withdraw some American troops from the territories of allied countries. In his relations with NATO, Trump will emphasize the independence of European armies.
Expected January 31, 2029
#Trump #NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected December 31, 2028
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected December 31, 2027
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
en

Mikhail Khazin

The European Union has, at most, a couple of years left to exist, if not less.
Expected December 31, 2026
#European Union
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There is a fairly strong coalition—the Patriotic Faction, or "Patriots for Europe" faction in the European Parliament—and I believe they will recognize your elections. Referring to the "Patriots for Europe" faction in the European Parliament, which will likely recognize the 2024 elections in Georgia.
Expected December 31, 2025
#European Union #Georgia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this. There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #European Union
ru → en