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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Taiwan

Authors
20
Predictions
25
Verified
6
Came true
83%
Complex
0%
Confident
17%

Leonid Ivashov

They won’t go to war with Taiwan just to gain control over the chip industry and so on. They’ll resolve this issue peacefully. Even though they’re lagging behind in silicon-based technologies, they won’t start a war over Taiwan. Chinese wisdom is still present there. Ours has vanished into eternity, but theirs — the Confucian approach — is still alive in China. That’s why I don’t believe China will go to war.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Valery Solovei

The Americans know that Taiwan won’t resist... Chinese won’t resist other Chinese.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Alexander Pantsov

Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, removes the limitations on nuclear weapons across the entire globe. And this cannot fail to concern China, because immediately—mark my words—immediately, Taiwan will begin implementing its nuclear program.
Expected
#Taiwan #Nuclear weapons #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Yes, there is a painful question regarding Taiwan. Well, China has clearly seen that now is not the time to address these issues, at least not through military means. And after the example of Russia, it definitely will not go down that path. I believe it will achieve all its goals anyway. I am absolutely convinced of this. The Chinese know how to be patient. They will take Taiwan, they will take everything they need. Just not right away.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

Well, first of all, Taiwan is not so easy to take. Taiwan has a quite sizable army, and it is far from helpless... therefore, I think that the Chinese will not resort to a forceful solution to the issue.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Malek Dudakov

As for Taiwan, I think we will see a slow escalation moving forward... The Americans are supplying their new medium-range missiles to the Philippines, and of course, there are endless training exercises involving American forces and the Taiwanese army. Under Trump, I believe everything will continue, including arms supplies.
Expected
#Taiwan #USA #Trump
ru → en

Malek Dudakov

The likelihood of a hot conflict, in my opinion, is not very high. Although there is a lot of hysteria coming from the West, claiming that war is just around the corner. But I believe that this is not in the interests of either the USA or China. Considering that a lot depends on Taiwan, which accounts for 60 percent of the global semiconductor market.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Moreover, the Chinese may provoke something in Taiwan. Most likely, they will. For example, a blockade of the island. Since the forces of the U.S. Navy and Army are far from unlimited.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The war in Taiwan will, of course, devastate the economies of the entire world. A hypothetical war
Expected
#Taiwan #Economy
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

China will not seize Taiwan. China will not get involved in a story like Putin
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

No, I don't think so; it would be foolish for the Chinese to take by force what they can achieve through peaceful means. Referring to the fact that there will be no military conflict between China and Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

John Mearsheimer

No, I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan anytime soon. And there are a variety of reasons for that. One of the main reasons is that for him or for China to attack Taiwan it has to cross a large body of water. And amphibious operations are among the most difficult military operations you can ask an army to perform. It is very difficult to cross a body of water as large as the Taiwan straight. Answer to the question: "Do you think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan in this decade?"
Expected December 31, 2029
#Taiwan #China
en

Sergey Auslender

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
Expected December 31, 2027
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

Erdogan is much smarter and more farsighted than Putin. My assumption is that Erdogan’s operation in Syria will be far more successful than Putin’s operation in Ukraine. In reality, no one will be able to stop it. And most likely, Xi Jinping will follow Erdogan’s lead.
Expected December 31, 2026
#China #Taiwan #Xi Jinping
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

I’m willing to bet that this won’t happen. It absolutely won’t. This is a card that China always plays, especially frequently in recent times. In response to the question: "What do you think is the likelihood that China will follow through on its intentions and try to seize Taiwan by force?"
Expected December 31, 2025
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon.
Expected October 16, 2025
#China #Taiwan
ru → en