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In 2025, the interest rate will most likely be reduced. As for how, by how much, and at what pace—excuse me, I’m not prepared to comment on that (The key interest rate in Russia is expected to decrease in 2025)

I firmly believe that if not by the end of this year, then next year there will inevitably be attempts to start negotiations

I find it hard to imagine that Putin and the Putin regime will last more than two years. I think it will be something akin to the collapse of the regime of Nicholas II

I think one could choose the option "will give in the coming days" (Will Trump give Tomahawks to Ukraine? The four options are: 1) Yes, will give in the coming days 2) Yes, but in months, or even years 3) Will promise, but won't give 4) Won't give and will stop promising. Which option would you choose, Yury Evgenyevich?)

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen (Referring to the oil price cap for Russia)

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement

Musk’s sales are down 50 percent, and the market cap is down 17 percent. Smart Democrats in Congress have already picked up on this. They’re buying like crazy — buying Tesla stock. Because it will go up. It can’t go down

Gunvor will say - maybe we shouldn't buy Lukoil's assets. In the coming days... Gunvor says - and we don't want to buy Lukoil's assets

I feel that Putin will not come to Hungary after all. They will either re-negotiate for a different location, or the meeting will simply fall through

It's obvious there will definitely be a battle for Pokrovsk this fall

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed.

But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing (Referring to the key interest rate in Russia)

Well, I understand that in any case, Mamdani will win. Mamdani will win

Putin will fly the long, roundabout way, through the Black Sea, through the Mediterranean Sea, through friendly countries... I think he will fly. European politicians have no chance of somehow forcing Trump to back out, and no chance of forcing Orbán to arrest Putin

I think Mr. Mamdani will win, and this will further strengthen the far-left camp in the Democratic Party (In the 2025 New York City mayoral election)

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months (In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?))

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time (The war in Ukraine)

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now (In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?")

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn (In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn)

Currently, there are no female governors in Russia. This is after the resignation of Governor Komarova today. This is certainly a disgrace for such a modern, civilized country as Russia. I am sure that the leadership of Russia understands this, and we will see female governors in the near future. Gender equality is one of the main achievements of civilization

And I can get it stopped. I will have that stopped before I assume... I will... if I win the election, the first thing I'm going to do is get Putin and get Zelenskyy, I know them both very well, and get them to make a deal because it's crazy (He will ensure that Putin and Zelenskyy start peace negotiations)

140 billion will be stolen on Thursday, October 23rd. The EU pushed Belgium, and on Thursday, the final decision will be made on the definitive theft of 140 billion euros of the Russian Central Bank's reserves from Russia's assets.
They have been frozen since 2022. And now they will be taken, and they will be used to buy weapons from the USA and transfer them to Ukraine

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action

As for the ruble, it is within its value range. And I don’t think there will be any significant movements either up or down

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me (In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?")

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce (In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?")

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume (In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”)

It’s obvious to us that Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace. (Peace between Russia and Ukraine) (Peace between Russia and Ukraine)

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal

I don't see any significant peace agreements before the fall (Meaning, until the fall of 2025)

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured (If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia)

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain (The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate)

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future (In the U.S)

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged) (Key rate)

It's safe to say that there will definitely be some kind of tax increase. It will be announced, it's a matter of the next few days (In Russia)

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join

I predict the war will end in two months (The war in Ukraine)

Right now, there is a vote underway for which object will appear on the new 500-ruble Russian banknote. And Mount Elbrus is competing with Grozny-City. I think Grozny-City will win the vote

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon

I think neither of them will get it (In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese...")

I think neither the first nor the second will get it (In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese...")

Baku has few doors left to enter. Reconciliation with Moscow — I'm sure that will happen soon

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise (Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin)

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that (In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?")

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons (In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that.")

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future (Speaking about a potential Russian offensive)

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon (In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?")

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions

Well, look, Iran is to blame itself. First of all, the regime will collapse soon, so to speak, any day now

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." (In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?")

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly (Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine)

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted

Zelensky will cancel his decree, and Putin — if he wants to. He simply doesn’t want to. We must gradually begin to let go of the illusion of these negotiations and realize that, in reality, they’ve already fallen apart (On the potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — or between Zelensky and Putin personally — in the near future. And even if they do happen, they will lead to nothing)

In my view, the likelihood of a military clash exists, and it may increase, but it will not escalate into a full-scale war... It could be a regional conflict. Regional means that in some border sectors there may be shelling, even intense shelling

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction

Turkey.
1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally.
2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down.
3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy (In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?")

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months

Resources for conducting intensive military operations will be exhausted by the spring of next year, in any case. In any case. This means that it will no longer be able to conduct military operations at the intensity with which the Russian Federation is currently operating

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly (Due to Trump's ultimatum)

The most important thing about Trump's ultimatum isn't the ultimatum itself, but his resentment. Putin, he says, didn't even call me after my last ultimatum.

Overall, the sanctions aren't that great; to implement them, you'd have to fight not only Russia but the entire world except the West.

Most likely, Trump won't introduce new duties, but will simply exit the game. He'll say, "I threatened and threatened, but they're not scared. I don't want to be friends with the Russians." He'll become friends with Zelenskyy instead (Trump will not introduce new tariffs against Russia; he will completely leave the game)

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore (In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs)

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices.

The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory.

Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine

I think there will be a war, and it will keep growing. Putin needs it badly, and so far, there's nothing that seems likely to stop him on this path

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power (Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting.")

I have a bad forecast. I do not expect a quick ceasefire, unlike many

It will definitely. France is bound to recognize it, of course it will, 100% (In response to the question: "Will Europe recognize Palestine in September?")

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context

A fake story has been spread about a supposedly planned meeting of Trump's associates in Europe, allegedly with both Trump and Zelensky participating. This is all being done to hijack the agenda being dictated by the summit in China. There won't be any meeting in Europe. At least not with Trump

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now

And it seems to me that after Iran, Trump’s rhetoric toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine will change very dramatically

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending (Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill))

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely

I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation

I am quite sure that this will not happen (In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine))

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year

Right now, Nabiullina has a good position... I think she'll lower it to 17%, to 16% at most (The key rate)

The Central Bank will most likely cut the rate to 16% at its next meeting

So far, the Central Bank has not announced a further rate cut. I think they will extend this rate at the next meeting. This is my forecast (In Russia)

In the near future, I don’t really believe that the Central Bank of Russia will significantly lower the key interest rate