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I predict the war will end in two months (The war in Ukraine)

I think neither of them will get it (In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese...")

I think neither the first nor the second will get it (In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese...")

Baku has few doors left to enter. Reconciliation with Moscow — I'm sure that will happen soon

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that (In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?")

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons (In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that.")

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future (Speaking about a potential Russian offensive)

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon (In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?")

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions

Well, look, Iran is to blame itself. First of all, the regime will collapse soon, so to speak, any day now

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." (In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?")

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly (Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine)

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted

In my view, the likelihood of a military clash exists, and it may increase, but it will not escalate into a full-scale war... It could be a regional conflict. Regional means that in some border sectors there may be shelling, even intense shelling

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly (Due to Trump's ultimatum)

The most important thing about Trump's ultimatum isn't the ultimatum itself, but his resentment. Putin, he says, didn't even call me after my last ultimatum.

Overall, the sanctions aren't that great; to implement them, you'd have to fight not only Russia but the entire world except the West.

Most likely, Trump won't introduce new duties, but will simply exit the game. He'll say, "I threatened and threatened, but they're not scared. I don't want to be friends with the Russians." He'll become friends with Zelenskyy instead

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore (In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs)

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices.

The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory.

Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine

I think there will be a war, and it will keep growing. Putin needs it badly, and so far, there's nothing that seems likely to stop him on this path

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power (Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting.")

I have a bad forecast. I do not expect a quick ceasefire, unlike many

It will definitely. France is bound to recognize it, of course it will, 100% (In response to the question: "Will Europe recognize Palestine in September?")

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context

A fake story has been spread about a supposedly planned meeting of Trump's associates in Europe, allegedly with both Trump and Zelensky participating. This is all being done to hijack the agenda being dictated by the summit in China. There won't be any meeting in Europe. At least not with Trump

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now

And it seems to me that after Iran, Trump’s rhetoric toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine will change very dramatically

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending (Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill))

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely

I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation

I am quite sure that this will not happen (In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine))

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year

Right now, Nabiullina has a good position... I think she'll lower it to 17%, to 16% at most (The key rate)

The Central Bank will most likely cut the rate to 16% at its next meeting

So far, the Central Bank has not announced a further rate cut. I think they will extend this rate at the next meeting. This is my forecast (In Russia)

In the near future, I don’t really believe that the Central Bank of Russia will significantly lower the key interest rate

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all (In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25.")

A meeting between Trump and Putin in Beijing is, in my opinion, impossible; there's no substance to it. In my view, it won't happen (Answer to the question: "Is a meeting between Trump and Putin possible?")

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening

And that all Hamas leaders will be destroyed... I will add from myself - they will all be killed

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia (Russian forces)

This is not a prediction. It seems to me that we're talking about a change of the Iranian regime. Protests will begin, and the ayatollahs' regime will not withstand them

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent (A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure)

As for the oil price, since there is no scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I think the price isn’t under much threat — it will be a bit nervous, but then it will settle down

Overnight, a full-scale war between India and Pakistan began almost unnoticed. Despite its peaceful rhetoric, it was in fact Pakistan that started the war by launching missile strikes, even targeting India’s capital, New Delhi. Both sides are now continuing to move troops toward the borders. The war is unavoidable. Let there be good!

Translation:

The war between India and Pakistan — do you think it will have a strong impact on the global economy? Well, as things are going, I would venture to predict that they will exchange some strikes and won’t continue beyond that, because for both of them, an all-out war with each other would have colossal and devastating consequences

Two major powers, one with a population of 1.5 billion people, the other with a population of 220 million people, and they are on the brink of war. However, many experts — and I agree with them — tend to believe that there will not be a serious war. The sides will exchange airstrikes, they already have, and afterward there will be a pause and negotiations will begin. India may consider itself satisfied, or maybe not, and Pakistan will respond

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future

Remember this tweet.
It contains the rules and outlines of the new world.

Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon.

A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders.
The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China.

Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned).

But that’s not all.

Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf.

The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war (The war in Ukraine)

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question (Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025)

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again (Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later)

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation

And Trump also says: "We will discuss how to first and foremost cease fire". My prediction is that Putin will not agree to a truce (During the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska)

On Friday, there will be negotiations... The next round of negotiations will fail on its own. This is a surefire prediction (Trump and Putin negotiations)

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken

Look, the important forecast regarding Iran is that this won’t last long. Why? Because a ground operation is impossible. It’s not feasible because the countries are located far from each other. Who would land troops where, and how would they fight? Iran against Israel and Israel against Iran—it’s a remote war: a missile war, a drone war. There might be a special operation, but this is not a ground war. The second reason is that Israel doesn’t need Iran—it’s not planning to capture it or annex it to its territory (The current war between Israel and Iran will not last long)

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil (Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill)

This war will last with phases of fading... for up to three years, unfortunately. A year is certain

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace (Sanctions against Russia)

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy

As of now, the way we see it, we won’t even reach a hundred by mid-summer (The ruble-to-dollar rate won’t reach 100 rubles per dollar by mid-summer)

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most

By August, 112-117 (The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia by August 2025)

There is a high probability that elections will take place by mid-year (In response to the question: "Will 2025 be an election year in Ukraine?")

Why GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN will rise in price when TRUMP becomes President again... I predict gold will rise from $2,400 an ounce to $ 3,300: silver from $29.00 an ounce to $ 79.00: and Bitcoin from $67,400 per coin to $105,000 by August 2025

I don't think it will happen this week (In response to the question: "Will the meeting between Putin and Zelensky eventually take place?")

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky

Yes, I think the meeting will take place. There have already been too many confirmations, including official ones (In response to the question: "A meeting between Putin and Trump is expected. Do you think the meeting will happen?")

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen (In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?")

Yes, I believe so. I'm sure a meeting between Putin and Trump will happen soon

Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? My prediction is no. My prediction is no. Why? Because then they would also lose Khark Island, the oil terminal, the refineries, and essentially their entire oil industry

Trump will not impose sanctions on Russia this Friday, as Ukraine has agreed to continue negotiations. (Previously, Vladimir Putin hinted that Ukraine was being dissuaded from talks). The State Department has since made new statements, saying the US is interested in a "lasting, durable peace" and continued negotiations. This means the demand for an unconditional ceasefire has been dropped. Official confirmations are expected soon

I'll make a prediction. I believe that Iran will not succeed in inflicting very serious damage on Israel — that’s my forecast. Yes, some missiles, Shaheds, and ballistic rockets may reach Israeli territory, possibly even some military sites, but they will not cause significant damage (In the current phase of the war between Israel and Iran)

This will have quite a few different consequences, and one of them we are seeing now in the rise of oil prices. But this is a hysterical market reaction — I don't think it will last long. I believe oil will go down fairly quickly (Due to Israel’s strike on Iran, oil prices have risen, but they will go down soon)

What else can he do to stop the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine? I'm afraid he doesn't have any special ideas about that. I think that after the ultimatum expires, we'll find out that the "red line" has moved somewhere further away again. That's my prediction. Maybe I'm wrong

I think the situation will unfold as follows. Today, I expect that even though the deadline has passed, Trump will most likely say something like, "Well, we did agree with the Russian side to arrange a meeting, and in doing so, we're signaling the end of the war, so why impose sanctions now?" That is what I expect will most likely happen

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any