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I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this (There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons)

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S (Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed)

I do not believe that there will be any real negotiations in the coming months. So far, I do not see any leverage over Putin

I think so. This process is not quick. Israel has certain limitations, including with its armed forces. Iran and the Islamic world must somehow respond to the destruction of some infrastructure (Response to the question: "Do you think this will last a month?" (The war between Israel and Iran))

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast (18th package of sanctions against Russia)

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum:

If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine.

And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions.

But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive.
It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive.
If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins.
Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future

I think Germany’s support for Ukraine will increase after next February’s elections and will become more consistent

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner

And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it

I think they’ll agree that they will jointly develop the areas near or around the Arctic Ocean. That’s most likely how it will end — with a mutually beneficial deal (Regarding the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S)

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world

Regarding China — and still, if they go for it (though it's hard for me to believe), if they take that step and make their yuan a bit or significantly stronger and higher

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance.

Excellent news!

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop (Iran's nuclear facilities)

I really think Whitkoff's visit will be pointless and accomplish nothing; they won't agree on anything (Steve Whitkoff's visit to Russia in early August)

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture

I strongly doubt that he will annex Greenland, honestly. At this stage, I don't see that as a realistic prospect

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away

Will there be another round of negotiations with Medinsky? Yes, absolutely

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top (The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue)

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer

Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this (By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley)

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase (Talking about oil prices)

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony (In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?")

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that (The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump)

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6

I think, more likely yes (Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine))

There will be some token actions as part of the continuation of this negotiation process. These actions will take place. It’s purely a cover for Putin’s escalation of the war. Again, it’s meant to convince the Americans not to impose sanctions against them... And, unfortunately, yes — the war will go on (Within the current negotiation process, the war in Ukraine will not come to an end)

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions (In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia))

I don't think what's happening in Istanbul can be considered a step towards peace in any way. As for a high-level meeting, it won't happen in the format proposed by Ukraine (Russia won't agree to Ukraine's proposal for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin)

Tomorrow is an interesting day in Ukraine. Will the NABU file a suspicion notice against Zelenskyy's wife, Olena, who is present on all the tapes as the curator of the scheme?
Or will they wait until next Monday, the decisive week?
Most likely, they will file it. After all, there will be so many envoys from the Pentagon in Kyiv

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point (The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine)

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter

By the way, such intense purges will start this summer and fall within Putin’s ranks; the heads of propagandists will roll en masse, like mushrooms sprouting

Lowering the conscription age and female mobilization are practically inevitable. Tentatively, if things continue this way, it may happen around October–November of this year (Is it true that there will be a female mobilization?)

I think the ceasefire will last until winter (Between Russia and Ukraine)

Given the traditions of how the Putin state operates, most likely no one will be replaced, and even all the top officials will remain in their positions (In response to the remark: "Who is to blame for the success of Operation 'Web' by Ukraine? Who is to blame on the Russian side?")

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel (He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel.")

And regarding the fact that many of the Z-supporters have started to rejoice "Finally, we're hitting the bridges, now we need to hit the bridges over the Dnieper River, for example, near the city of Zaporizhzhia". I believe this won't happen because there's very little point to it

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill (In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?")

Yes, exactly. That's why I'm saying this law won't be passed (Responding to the comment: "The first thought that comes to mind when you start thinking about Lindsey Graham's project is, what about China, what about India?")

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful (Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?")

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says (The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed)

There’s a very unpleasant detail — depending on the type of penal colony, the days spent under house arrest don’t count toward the future sentence if it turns out to be a real prison term. And I believe Shlosberg will get a real sentence. Simply because it’s Pskov — people there are fed up with him. We can see how biased the attitude toward him is, specifically in Pskov

Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army (Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”)

Another round of sanctions is being discussed... The 19th sanctions package concerns a serious restriction on the issuance of tourist visas to Russians... I am absolutely convinced that such a measure won't be adopted

If you ask me how much Zelenskyy's rating will drop next month... he will lose 2-3% of his rating

I am more than certain, and I am ready to compare the results later, that by the end of 2025, no matter what anyone writes or spreads, the war will not end (The war in Ukraine)

I believe that Iran will not fall like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Assad in Syria, but will withstand this blow, consolidate, and be able to regenerate its capabilities

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes

And that was the key threat — that if Iran were attacked, it would block the Strait of Hormuz, halting all oil traffic, causing an oil shortage, and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Right now, this scenario is not unfolding... There is no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz

It was quite obvious that Kamyshevakha would fall in the near future... Sooner or later, it will definitely end up in the Russian rear. That's pretty obvious

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year (In Russia)

I think Umerov will return to Ukraine — at least this time. Anything else would be too severe a blow to Zelenskyy

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable

Yermak is done.
The US Chargé d'Affaires for Ukraine stated to the leaders of the Rada parties and US Embassy staff that she is launching a competition for the new head of Zelenskyy's office tomorrow.
Yermak will be interrogated by the NABU and SAP upon arrival, and after that, he will resign

Whoever holds power in Iran, Iran’s nuclear program will cease to exist

I’m not very optimistic about a regime change in Iran, because war usually serves to unite the population around the ruling authorities

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months (In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran))

In the foreseeable future, it will not happen, from my point of view. I don't know, I could be wrong (In response to the question: "Maxim, when will the meeting between Putin and Zelensky take place, if it happens?")

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet

You can criticize Spain’s prime minister all you want for refusing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. He did the right thing—he has elections coming up. How do you justify telling him to spend 5% instead of 2%? Who’s going to attack him—Algeria or Portugal? His own election is looming, and he’s almost certain to lose

I think that sooner or later, more likely sooner, Orban and his team will resign

But I don't think the war will extend beyond 2025

I think that in the end, Kommersant will end up with the Kovalchuks. This will happen sooner rather than later

I believe that the likelihood of the war being in some sense frozen, not finished but rather frozen, in 2025 is quite high

If nothing extraordinary happens, like a new mobilization, the year 2025 will pass quite calmly... I definitely do not foresee any failures, crises, or the dollar at 200 rubles

I will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government (If Trump wins the elections)

I don't think so (Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025')

I wouldn't expect that (Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025')

I think the war will end in 2025 with the defeat of the Russian Federation

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash

I believe that the upcoming year 2025 will be incredibly difficult for Putin. And at the current scale, he will not be able to continue the war

The victory may be far off. However, I do not think we are talking about years. I do not see a scenario stretched over years, like the Soviet-Afghan war (Until Ukraine's victory)

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime

It's almost certain that the same level of aid as before won’t be there. Will there be any aid at all? (In response to the question: "How likely is it that Ukraine will be left without U.S. financial aid at 2024 levels next year?")

The demarcation agreement, which I think everyone is pushing towards... will most likely come in 2025, with the first attempts to establish some kind of deal regarding authority and territories (Between Russia and Ukraine)