screenshot

I think that, most likely, before the onset of winter, the offensive pace of the Russian army will remain more or less the same. If the Ukrainian army does not significantly increase its firepower on this section of the front, then most likely there will be a battle for Pokrovsk in the fall

On September 26, Biden announced that $8 billion in military aid would be provided to Ukraine. As of today, that has not happened. The total amount of military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine since that promise is zero. Zero dollars, zero cents. I would venture to predict that, by the end of Biden's term, as he promised, this $8 billion in military aid will not be provided to Ukraine

If today Zurabishvili and the U.S. ambassador fail to convince the Georgian opposition to bring people out for a Maidan, initiate citywide strikes, and organize a series of blockades at the airport and main roads, by next weekend, the Georgian parliament will likely have a constitutional majority and begin impeachment proceedings against French citizen and foreign agent Salome Zurabishvili. The parliament would then announce early presidential elections to be held in early 2025

I think it will come to a victim anyway. The Russians will definitely do it. I don't know who exactly they will eliminate. I mean European leaders; I'm not joking. They will eliminate one of them

I can say for my part that you can have no doubt about the Tomahawks; the question is how effective they will be, when, and how many. As for Tomahawks, this is a more than realistic scenario (The US will transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine)

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK (Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine)

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything (If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised)

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess

It’s obvious to us that Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace. (Peace between Russia and Ukraine) (Peace between Russia and Ukraine)

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky

Zelensky will cancel his decree, and Putin — if he wants to. He simply doesn’t want to. We must gradually begin to let go of the illusion of these negotiations and realize that, in reality, they’ve already fallen apart (On the potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — or between Zelensky and Putin personally — in the near future. And even if they do happen, they will lead to nothing)

Currently, there are no female governors in Russia. This is after the resignation of Governor Komarova today. This is certainly a disgrace for such a modern, civilized country as Russia. I am sure that the leadership of Russia understands this, and we will see female governors in the near future. Gender equality is one of the main achievements of civilization

Resources for conducting intensive military operations will be exhausted by the spring of next year, in any case. In any case. This means that it will no longer be able to conduct military operations at the intensity with which the Russian Federation is currently operating

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured (If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia)

I don't see any opportunities today to decisively turn the situation in someone's favor... Most likely, everything will be pushed to next year. I don't see the resources for any side to achieve victory today... Most likely, everything will drag on until next May or the second half of April (The war in Ukraine will end, or there will be a significant turning point in it, by May 2025)

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy (In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?")

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action

And I can get it stopped. I will have that stopped before I assume... I will... if I win the election, the first thing I'm going to do is get Putin and get Zelenskyy, I know them both very well, and get them to make a deal because it's crazy (He will ensure that Putin and Zelenskyy start peace negotiations)

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange (Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia)

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”

I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities

I believe that any conferences of this kind will take place regardless of what is happening. It’s unlikely they will be canceled (Response to the question: "French President Macron canceled the international conference on the recognition of the Palestinian state, which was supposed to take place on June 17 in New York. Officially, the decision was said to be made in light of Israel’s strikes on Iran. Could this affect whether the G7 summit in Calgary, Canada, will take place or not?")

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine

Zaluzhny will be the new president (Of Ukraine. If negotiations begin in the coming months)

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this (There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons)

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing (Referring to the key interest rate in Russia)

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S (Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed)

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future (In the U.S)

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted

I do not believe that there will be any real negotiations in the coming months. So far, I do not see any leverage over Putin

I think so. This process is not quick. Israel has certain limitations, including with its armed forces. Iran and the Islamic world must somehow respond to the destruction of some infrastructure (Response to the question: "Do you think this will last a month?" (The war between Israel and Iran))

It is very difficult for me to understand how Netanyahu's government will survive these three major crises. Therefore, I believe there is a strong likelihood that this coalition will collapse by late February or early March, and we will then head to early elections in the summer

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast (18th package of sanctions against Russia)

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum:

If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine.

And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions.

But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive.
It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive.
If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins.
Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future

I think Germany’s support for Ukraine will increase after next February’s elections and will become more consistent

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner

And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it

I think they’ll agree that they will jointly develop the areas near or around the Arctic Ocean. That’s most likely how it will end — with a mutually beneficial deal (Regarding the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S)

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world

Regarding China — and still, if they go for it (though it's hard for me to believe), if they take that step and make their yuan a bit or significantly stronger and higher

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce (In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?")

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance.

Excellent news!

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop (Iran's nuclear facilities)

I really think Whitkoff's visit will be pointless and accomplish nothing; they won't agree on anything (Steve Whitkoff's visit to Russia in early August)

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture

I strongly doubt that he will annex Greenland, honestly. At this stage, I don't see that as a realistic prospect

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume (In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”)

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar

As for the ruble, it is within its value range. And I don’t think there will be any significant movements either up or down

Will there be another round of negotiations with Medinsky? Yes, absolutely

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top (The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue)

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer

Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this (By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley)

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran.

It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer.

Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close.

Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase (Talking about oil prices)

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there

A military campaign against Iran... I am inclined to believe that such a confrontation is apparently inevitable now, meaning it will happen, and it will happen quite soon. We won't discuss exactly how soon — days, weeks, it doesn't matter. It will happen in the near future, that’s clear. As for negotiations, apparently, there will be no negotiations at this moment because those negotiations also depended on the reformist, relatively moderate wing of the phalanx in the Iranian parliament

Turkey.
1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally.
2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down.
3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise (Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin)

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony (In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?")

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon

Right now, there is a vote underway for which object will appear on the new 500-ruble Russian banknote. And Mount Elbrus is competing with Grozny-City. I think Grozny-City will win the vote

It's safe to say that there will definitely be some kind of tax increase. It will be announced, it's a matter of the next few days (In Russia)

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged) (Key rate)

I don't see any significant peace agreements before the fall (Meaning, until the fall of 2025)

He will be gone in the upcoming election (Response to the request: "We need your help in Canada getting rid of Trudeau")

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that (The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump)

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me (In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?")

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now

Abroad, gasoline is getting cheaper, so it's becoming harder to get the damper (subsidy), and then you need to make a profit somewhere. Profit can only be made on the domestic market, so we expect the price of 95-octane to reach 70 rubles by autumn (In Russia, the price of 95-octane gasoline will be 70 rubles in the autumn)

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now (In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?")