Yuri Felshtinsky
Historian (USA, Russia)
Yuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
I don't know whether Russia will leave Crimea, or under what conditions it might. It will leave Crimea — it's just a matter of time
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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If this war lasts until January 2026 — and I’m sure it will — then it will have lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. A lot of people are dying, but Putin doesn’t care. And unfortunately, Ukraine has no way out
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
Although I expect that at some point Trump will fire Rubio
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
The situation for the Russian Federation is more likely to worsen. Although we will see some sanctions lifted
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Putin is interested in war. And for him, Ukraine is only the first stage. Europe knows this. That’s why Europe will continue to support Ukraine — it has no other choice
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Ukraine will not sign a capitulation under the terms proposed by Trump and Putin
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
I am more inclined to expect that Trump will now concede Taiwan to China
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
And Trump's plans regarding Ukraine are perfectly clear to us... If, God forbid, Trump wins, he will abandon Ukraine... That's 100%
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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No Ukrainian politician, starting with Zelensky, will be able to present the question of peace negotiations with Russia to their people without the condition of recognizing the borders of 1991
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Everyone is now startled by the announcement that Poland is suspending military aid to Ukraine. But I guarantee you that Poland will not stop military assistance to Ukraine. Because Poland's military aid to Ukraine is primarily in Poland's interest, and this is well understood in Poland
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
ru → en
I state, with full responsibility, that no later than September of this year, nuclear strikes will be launched from Belarus against Lithuania and Poland if the West does not take preventive actions in this regard
Did not come trueYuri Felshtinsky
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He will not remain in the presidential chair until the end of the war
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Most likely, at the end of the road, Germany will give in and will not be able to resist the overall trend of its allies (It will transfer or allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine)
Completely came trueYuri Felshtinsky
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Whoever comes to power in Russia after Putin will still be a temporary ruler and will not stay in power for long, maybe a year or two
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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I do not believe that Putin will leave power voluntarily
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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The moment Kadyrov leaves, the Chechen Republic will certainly raise the issue of its independence
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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Of course, we can see that both Prigozhin and Shoigu will be sacrificed
Completely came trueYuri Felshtinsky
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Negotiations are impossible. We can forget about negotiations
Did not come trueYuri Felshtinsky
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The victory may be far off. However, I do not think we are talking about years. I do not see a scenario stretched over years, like the Soviet-Afghan war (Until Ukraine's victory)
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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And after this attempt fails, which it undoubtedly will (Attempt of a renewed offensive on Kyiv by Russian troops)
UnverifiableYuri Felshtinsky
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An offensive on Kyiv... I am sure that he will attempt it
Did not come trueYuri Felshtinsky
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He will end badly... I don't think he will die a natural death (Lukashenko)
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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I am far from the thought that he will deliver this strike from the territory of the Russian Federation (Nuclear strike)
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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I don't think that Lukashenko will live much longer
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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When military actions will be transferred to the territory of Belarus, and they will be transferred there at some point
Awaiting resultsYuri Felshtinsky
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I think he will simply delay demobilization (About Putin's attempts to find more people for the war)
Did not come true